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2006 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania

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The 2006 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania was held on November 7, 2006. Incumbent Republican Rick Santorum ran for re-election to a third term, but was easily defeated by Democratic State Treasurer Bob Casey, Jr., the son of former Governor Bob Casey Sr.[1] Casey was elected to serve between January 3, 2007 and January 3, 2013.

2006 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania
← 2000 November 7, 2006 2012 →
 
Nominee Bob Casey Jr. Rick Santorum
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 2,392,984 1,684,778
Percentage 58.64% 41.28%
Casey:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Santorum:      50–60%      60–70%
U.S. senator before election

Rick Santorum
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Bob Casey Jr.
Democratic

Santorum trailed Casey in every public poll taken during the campaign. Casey's margin of victory (nearly 18% of those who voted) was the largest ever for a Democratic Senate nominee in Pennsylvania, the largest margin of victory for a Senate challenger in the 2006 elections, and the largest general election margin of defeat for an incumbent U.S. senator since 1980.[2] Casey was the first Pennsylvania Democrat to win a full term in the Senate since Joseph S. Clark Jr. in 1962, and the first Democrat to win a Senate election since 1991. He was the first Democrat to win a full term for this seat since 1940.

As of 2024, this was the last time the following counties have voted Democratic in a Senate election: Greene, Washington, Westmoreland, Somerset, Lawrence, Mercer, Armstrong, Indiana, Cambria, Warren, Forest, Elk, Clearfield, Clinton, Schuylkill, Columbia, and Carbon. This was also the last time an incumbent senator from Pennsylvania lost re-election until 2024, when Casey was defeated by David McCormick.

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Nominee

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Withdrew

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  • John Featherman, Libertarian nominee for U.S. Senate in 2000

Featherman withdrew his candidacy after a Republican party petition challenge because he did not have the necessary number of signatures to get on the ballot. As a result, Santorum won the Republican nomination unopposed.[3]

Results

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2006 Republican U.S. Senate primary[4]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Rick Santorum (incumbent) 561,952 100.00%
Total votes 561,952 100.00%

Democratic primary

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The Democratic primary was held May 16, 2006.

Candidates

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Nominee

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Eliminated in primary

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Declined

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Results

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Casey won a landslide victory in the primary.[8]

2006 Democratic U.S. Senate primary[4]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Bob Casey, Jr. 629,271 84.48%
Democratic Chuck Pennacchio 66,364 8.91%
Democratic Alan Sandals 48,113 6.46%
Write-in 1,114 0.15%
Total votes 744,862 100.00%

General election

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Candidates

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Declined

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Michelman decided against running and tacitly endorsed Casey in March 2006[9]

Disqualified

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Romanelli was removed from the ballot by a Commonwealth Court judge on September 25, 2006, following a challenge from Democrats for failing to collect enough valid signatures required of third-party candidates. He lost the appeal to the state Supreme Court challenging the required number of signatures, on October 3, 2006[10] Carl Romanelli was ordered to pay more than $80,000 in legal fees stemming from his failed effort to make the ballot.[11]

Campaign

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Santorum's support for Arlen Specter

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See also: Rick Santorum § Specter endorsement

Republican strategists took Santorum's primary result in 2006 as a bad omen, in which he ran unopposed for the Republican nomination. Republican gubernatorial nominee Lynn Swann, also unopposed, garnered 22,000 more votes statewide than Santorum in the primary, meaning thousands of Republican voters abstained from endorsing Santorum for another Senate term. This may have been partly due to Santorum's support for Arlen Specter over Congressman Pat Toomey in the 2004 Republican primary for the U.S. Senate. Even though Santorum was only slightly less conservative than Toomey, he joined virtually all of the state and national Republican establishment in supporting the moderate Specter. This led many socially and fiscally conservative Republicans to consider Santorum's support of Specter to be a betrayal of their cause.[12][13][14] However, Santorum said he supported Specter to avoid risking a Toomey loss in the general election, which would have prevented President George W. Bush's judicial nominees from Senate confirmation.[15] Santorum says Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito would not have been confirmed without the help of Specter, who was chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee at the time.[15]

Santorum's controversial views

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See also: Campaign for santorum neologism

In the Senate, Santorum was an outspoken conservative from a state with a history of electing moderates. This led many political commentators to speculate that his low approval ratings were due to some of his more controversial statements and opinions.

Among these controversies were his views on the privatization of Social Security[16][17] and the teaching of intelligent design in public schools.[18] In addition, his involvement in the Terri Schiavo case was considered by many in his state to be out of place.[19][20]

All this left Santorum in a precarious position throughout the race. On May 31, 2006, the polling firm Rasmussen Reports declared that Santorum was the "most vulnerable incumbent" among the senators running for re-election.[21] SurveyUSA polling taken right before the election showed that Santorum was the least popular of all 100 senators, with a 38% approval rating and a net approval rating of -19%.[22]

Santorum's residency

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While Santorum maintained a small residence in Penn Hills, a township near Pittsburgh, his family primarily lived in a large house in Leesburg, a suburb of Washington, D.C. in Northern Virginia. Santorum faced charges of hypocrisy from critics who noted the similarities between his living situation and that of former Representative Doug Walgren, who Santorum defeated in 1990. Back then, Santorum had claimed that Walgren was out of touch with his district; these claims were backed up with commercials showing Walgren's home in the Virginia suburbs.[23]

On NBC's Meet the Press on September 3, 2006, Santorum admitted that he only spent "maybe a month a year, something like that" at his Pennsylvania residence.[24]

Santorum also drew criticism for enrolling five of his six children in an online "cyber school" in Pennsylvania's Allegheny County (home to Pittsburgh and most of its suburbs), despite the fact that the children lived in Virginia. The Penn Hills School District was billed $73,000 in tuition for the cyber classes.[25]

Casey's momentum

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Santorum began his contrast campaign against Casey early, charging him with relentlessly seeking higher political office[26] and failing to take definitive stands on issues.[27] While these charges kept the race competitive, in late September and through October, Casey's campaign seemed to regain the momentum it had had throughout most of the campaign, as most polls showed Casey widening his lead after a summer slump. In a Quinnipiac University Polling Institute poll, released on September 26, 2006, Casey was favored by 14 points.[28] An October 18, 2006 poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports showed Casey with a similar double-digit lead. In the Rasmussen poll, only 46% of voters surveyed had a favorable view of Santorum, while 57% of voters viewed Casey favorably.[29]

Negative advertisements

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At least one of Santorum's television ads called into question his campaign's use of the facts regarding Casey and people who had donated money to the Casey campaign.[30] The ad, which aired in September, showed several men seated around a table, while talking amongst themselves and smoking cigars, inside a jail cell. While none of the figures, who were played by actors, were named personally, the narrator provided the job descriptions, previous donations to Casey, and ethical and/or legal troubles of each. The Santorum campaign later provided the names of the people portrayed. An editorial in Casey's hometown newspaper, The Times-Tribune, pointed out that all but one of the contributions "[was] made to Casey campaigns when he was running for other offices, at which time none of the contributors were known to be under investigation for anything."[31] In fact, two of the persons cited in the Santorum campaign ad had actually given contributions to Santorum's 2006 Senate campaign. Another of the figures portrayed had died in 2004. Political scientist Larry Sabato called the ad "over the top" and suspected that the fallout would hurt Santorum.[32]

Debates

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[33] Lean D (flip) November 6, 2006
Sabato's Crystal Ball[34] Safe D (flip) November 6, 2006
Rothenberg Political Report[35] Likely D (flip) November 6, 2006
Real Clear Politics[36] Likely D (flip) November 6, 2006

Polling

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Source Date Bob
Casey Jr. (D) 		Rick
Santorum (R)
Quinnipiac[37] February 16, 2005 46% 41%
SurveyUSA[38] March 8–9, 2005 49% 42%
Keystone[39] March 22, 2005 44% 43%
Quinnipiac[40] April 23, 2005 49% 35%
Keystone[41] June 6, 2005 44% 37%
Quinnipiac[42] July 13, 2005 50% 39%
Rasmussen[43] July 22, 2005 52% 41%
Strategic Vision (R)[44] July 31, 2005 51% 40%
Strategic Vision (R)[45] September 12, 2005 52% 38%
Keystone[46] September 13, 2005 50% 37%
Quinnipiac[47] October 3, 2005 52% 34%
Strategic Vision (R)[48] October 16, 2005 52% 36%
Keystone[49] November 10, 2005 51% 35%
Rasmussen[50] November 10, 2005 54% 34%
Strategic Vision (R)[51] November 16, 2005 51% 36%
Quinnipiac[52] December 13, 2005 50% 38%
Strategic Vision (R)[53] December 18, 2005 50% 39%
Rasmussen[54] January 15, 2006 53% 38%
Strategic Vision (R)[55] January 25, 2006 50% 40%
Keystone[56] February 9, 2006 50% 39%
Quinnipiac[57] February 13, 2006 51% 36%
Rasmussen[58] February 16, 2006 52% 36%
Muhlenberg College[59] March 2, 2006 49% 37%
Mansfield University[60] March 7, 2006 45% 31%
Rasmussen[61] March 14, 2006 48% 38%
Rasmussen[62] March 29, 2006 50% 41%
Quinnipiac[63] April 6, 2006 48% 37%
Strategic Vision (R)[64] April 13, 2006 50% 40%
Rasmussen[65] April 20, 2006 51% 38%
Muhlenberg/Morning Call[66] April 26, 2006 46% 38%
Keystone[67] May 4, 2006 47% 41%
Strategic Vision (R)[68] May 10, 2006 49% 41%
Quinnipiac[69] May 11, 2006 49% 36%
Rasmussen[70] May 22, 2006 56% 33%
American Research Group[71] May 25, 2006 54% 41%
Strategic Vision (R)[72] June 15, 2006 49% 40%
Rasmussen[73] June 19, 2006 52% 37%
Quinnipiac[74] June 21, 2006 52% 34%
Strategic Vision (R)[75] July 20, 2006 50% 40%
Rasmussen[76] July 26, 2006 50% 39%
Muhlenberg College[77] August 5, 2006 45% 39%
Quinnipiac[78] August 15, 2006 47% 40%
Benenson Strategy Group (D)[79] August 16, 2006 51% 37%
Strategic Vision (R)[80] August 17, 2006 47% 41%
Rasmussen[81] August 22, 2006 48% 40%
Keystone[82] August 24, 2006 44% 39%
USA Today/Gallup[83] August 27, 2006 56% 38%
Keystone[84] September 18, 2006 45% 38%
Princeton Research Associates[85] September 18, 2006 52% 31%
Rasmussen[86] September 20, 2006 49% 39%
Temple/Philadelphia Inquirer[87] September 24, 2006 49% 39%
Quinnipiac[88] September 26, 2006 54% 40%
Strategic Vision (R)[89] September 28, 2006 50% 40%
Mason-Dixon/McClatchy-MSNBC[90] October 2, 2006 49% 40%
Rasmussen[91] October 5, 2006 50% 37%
Zogby International/Reuters[92] October 5, 2006 48% 36%
Muhlenberg/Morning Call[93] October 8, 2006 46% 41%
Rasmussen[94] October 16, 2006 55% 43%
Democracy Corps[95] October 17, 2006 54% 37%
Strategic Vision (R)[96] October 23, 2006 49% 42%
West Chester University[97] October 27, 2006 50% 39%
Rasmussen[98] October 28, 2006 55% 42%
Temple/Philadelphia Inquirer[99] October 29, 2006 54% 38%
Strategic Vision (R)[100] October 30, 2006 49% 39%
Quinnipiac[101] November 1, 2006 52% 42%
Keystone[102] November 1, 2006 53% 38%
Reuters/Zogby International[103] November 2, 2006 48% 40%
Muhlenberg/Morning Call[104] November 3, 2006 51% 43%
Mason-Dixon/McClatchy-MSNBC[105] November 5, 2006 52% 39%
Strategic Vision (R)[106] November 6, 2006 52% 40%

Results

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General election results[107]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Bob Casey Jr. 2,392,984 58.64% +13.2%
Republican Rick Santorum (incumbent) 1,684,778 41.28% −11.1%
Write-in 3,281 0.08% N/A
Total votes 4,081,043 100.00% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican

At 9:45 PM EST on Election Night, Santorum called Casey to concede defeat.[108]

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

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By congressional district

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Bob Casey Jr won 14 of 19 congressional districts, including four districts which elected Republicans to the House.[109]

District Casey Jr. Santorum Representative
1st 87.7% 12.3% Bob Brady
2nd 89.6% 10.4%
Chaka Fattah
3rd 54.0% 46.0% Phil English
4th 54.9% 45.1% Melissa Hart (109th Congress)
Jason Altmire (110th Congress)
5th 49.9% 50.1% John E. Peterson
6th 58.5% 41.5% Jim Gerlach
7th 59.1% 40.9% Curt Weldon (109th Congress)
Joe Sestak (110th Congress)
8th 58.8% 41.2% Mike Fitzpatrick (109th Congress)
Patrick Murphy (110th Congress)
9th 44.9% 55.1% Bill Shuster
10th 49.1% 50.9% Don Sherwood (109th Congress)
Chris Carney (110th Congress)
11th 62.3% 37.7% Paul Kanjorski
12th 62.9% 37.1% John Murtha
13th 63.0% 37.0% Allyson Schwartz
14th 76.4% 23.6% Mike Doyle
15th 56.9% 43.1% Charlie Dent
16th 45.8% 54.2% Joe Pitts
17th 51.3% 48.7% Tim Holden
18th 55.2% 44.8% Tim Murphy
19th 45.6% 54.4% Todd R. Platts

See also

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References

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  1. ^ James O'Toole. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. "Santorum in cross hairs for 2006 election." January 17, 2005. Accessed February 8, 2007.
  2. ^ Borys Krawczeniuk. The Times-Tribune. "Casey dominated like no one before." November 9, 2006. Accessed February 8, 2007.
  3. ^ Kimberly Hefling, The Associated Press. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. "Santorum's only GOP challenger bowing out of primary." March 16, 2006. Accessed February 8, 2007.
  4. ^ a b "Pennsylvania Elections | Summary Results". Retrieved September 27, 2023.
  5. ^ James O'Toole. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. "Voters Guide 2006: 2 battle Casey for Democratic U.S. Senate nomination." May 8, 2006. Accessed February 8, 2007.
  6. ^ Bob Casey for US Senate. "Hafer endorses Casey for U.S. Senate." Archived October 17, 2015, at the Wayback Machine June 7, 2006. Accessed February 8, 2007.
  7. ^ Peter Jackson, The Associated Press. The Times-Tribune. Casey to seek Senate nominationl; Hafer and Hoeffel out." March 4, 2007. Accessed February 8, 2007.
  8. ^ Pennsylvania Department of State. Commonwealth of PA - Elections Information. Accessed February 8, 2007.
  9. ^ James O'Toole. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. "Democratic long shots seek limelight." March 21, 2006. Accessed February 8, 2007.
  10. ^ James O'Toole. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. "Green Party hopeful is out; win for Casey." October 4, 2006. Accessed February 8, 2007.
  11. ^ "The Citizens Voice - Breaking News: Romanelli ordered to pay more than $80,000". Archived from the original on September 30, 2007. Retrieved July 18, 2007.
  12. ^ Jerry Bowyer (October 10, 2006). "Outside Santorum's Sanctum". New York Sun. Archived from the original on January 19, 2008. Retrieved February 23, 2011.
  13. ^ Stephen Moore (April 15, 2004). "Santorum's Shame". National Review.
  14. ^ Carney, Timothy P. (November 1, 2009). "Betrayal in Pennsylvania". AFF's Brainwash.
  15. ^ a b In Iowa, Specter endorsement haunts Rick Santorum
  16. ^ Maeve Reston. Pittsburgh-Post Gazette. "Santorum finds many minds made up on Social Security." February 22, 2005. Accessed February 8, 2007.
  17. ^ Americans United. "Americans United announces "Mobilization against Privatization." Archived October 22, 2006, at the Wayback Machine April 19, 2005. Accessed February 8, 2007.
  18. ^ The Associated Press. The Washington Post. Santorum breaks with Christian Right law center." December 23, 2005. Accessed February 8, 2007.
  19. ^ Tom Barnes. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. "Santorum defends Schiavo visit." June 18, 2005. Accessed February 8, 2007.
  20. ^ Page Rockwell. Salon. "Rick Santorum's Schiavo woes." Archived June 6, 2011, at the Wayback Machine April 25, 2005. Accessed February 8, 2005.
  21. ^ Rasmussen Reports. "Pennsylvania Senate: Casey by 23." Archived June 2, 2006, at the Wayback Machine May 31, 2006. Accessed February 8, 2007.
  22. ^ SurveyUSA. "Approval Ratings for all 100 U.S. Senators as of 10/24/06." October 24, 2006. Accessed February 8, 2007.
  23. ^ Brian O'Neill. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Santorum: Hoisted on his own back yard." May 25, 2006. Accessed February 8, 2007.
  24. ^ Meet the Press with Tim Russert. "MTP Transcript for Sept. 3." September 6, 2006. Accessed February 8, 2007.
  25. ^ Vera Miller (September 20, 2006). "Dems Press Cyber Cost Issue". Penn Hills Progress.[permanent dead link‍]
  26. ^ RickSantorum.com. "Hey There, Hi There, Ho There." Archived December 14, 2006, at the Wayback Machine August 26, 2006. Accessed February 12, 2007.
  27. ^ Bill Toland. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. "Santorum, Casey go toe-to-toe in debate." October 13, 2006. Accessed February 12, 2007.
  28. ^ Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Casey leads Santorum among likely voters, Quinnipiac University Pennsylvania poll finds; incumbent's momentum has stalled." Archived December 23, 2007, at the Wayback Machine September 26, 2006. Accessed February 8, 2007.
  29. ^ Rasmussen Reports. "Pennsylvania Senate: Santorum trailing by 13." Archived October 19, 2006, at the Wayback Machine October 18, 2006. Accessed February 8, 2007.
  30. ^ RickSantorum.com. "Corner Bar." Archived 2006-10-18 at the Wayback Machine September 13, 2006. Accessed February 8, 2007.
  31. ^ "Santorum hurls the low hard one". The Scranton Times-Tribune. September 15, 2006. Archived from the original on September 27, 2007.
  32. ^ Eichel, Larry (September 14, 2006). "Santorum ad impugns ethics of Casey 'team'. It portrays investigated men. None, however, has a formal campaign role". The Philadelphia Inquirer. Archived from the original on January 30, 2016. Retrieved December 16, 2019.
  33. ^ "2006 Senate Race Ratings for November 6, 2006" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Archived from the original (PDF) on June 5, 2008. Retrieved September 30, 2021.
  34. ^ "Election Eve 2006: THE FINAL PREDICTIONS". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved June 25, 2021.
  35. ^ "2006 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved June 25, 2021.
  36. ^ "Election 2006". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved June 25, 2021.
  37. ^ Quinnipiac
  38. ^ SurveyUSA
  39. ^ Keystone
  40. ^ Quinnipiac
  41. ^ Keystone
  42. ^ Quinnipiac
  43. ^ Rasmussen Archived July 26, 2005, at the Wayback Machine
  44. ^ Strategic Vision (R)
  45. ^ Strategic Vision (R)
  46. ^ Keystone
  47. ^ Quinnipiac
  48. ^ Strategic Vision (R)
  49. ^ Keystone
  50. ^ Rasmussen Archived November 24, 2005, at the Wayback Machine
  51. ^ Strategic Vision (R)
  52. ^ Quinnipiac
  53. ^ Strategic Vision (R)
  54. ^ Rasmussen
  55. ^ Strategic Vision (R)
  56. ^ Keystone
  57. ^ Quinnipiac
  58. ^ Rasmussen
  59. ^ Muhlenberg College
  60. ^ Mansfield University
  61. ^ Rasmussen
  62. ^ Rasmussen
  63. ^ Quinnipiac
  64. ^ Strategic Vision (R)
  65. ^ Rasmussen
  66. ^ Muhlenberg/Morning Call
  67. ^ Keystone
  68. ^ Strategic Vision (R)
  69. ^ Quinnipiac
  70. ^ Rasmussen
  71. ^ American Research Group
  72. ^ Strategic Vision (R)
  73. ^ Rasmussen
  74. ^ Quinnipiac
  75. ^ Strategic Vision (R)
  76. ^ Rasmussen Archived August 30, 2006, at the Wayback Machine
  77. ^ Muhlenberg College
  78. ^ Quinnipiac
  79. ^ Benenson Strategy Group (D)
  80. ^ Strategic Vision (R)
  81. ^ Rasmussen
  82. ^ Keystone
  83. ^ USA Today/Gallup
  84. ^ Keystone [permanent dead link‍]
  85. ^ Princeton Research Associates
  86. ^ Rasmussen
  87. ^ Temple/Philadelphia Inquirer
  88. ^ Quinnipiac
  89. ^ Strategic Vision (R)
  90. ^ Mason-Dixon/McClatchy-MSNBC
  91. ^ Rasmussen
  92. ^ Zogby International/Reuters
  93. ^ Muhlenberg/Morning Call
  94. ^ Rasmussen
  95. ^ Democracy Corps
  96. ^ Strategic Vision (R)
  97. ^ West Chester University
  98. ^ Rasmussen
  99. ^ Temple/Philadelphia Inquirer
  100. ^ Strategic Vision (R)
  101. ^ Quinnipiac
  102. ^ Keystone [permanent dead link‍]
  103. ^ Reuters/Zogby International
  104. ^ Muhlenberg/Morning Call
  105. ^ Mason-Dixon/McClatchy-MSNBC
  106. ^ Strategic Vision (R)
  107. ^ Commonwealth of PA - Elections Information Archived May 29, 2008, at the Wayback Machine
  108. ^ Carrie Budoff and Emilie Lounsberry. The Philadelphia Inquirer. "Sen. Santorum loses in a landslide." November 8, 2006. Accessed February 8, 2007.
  109. ^ "Twitter".
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