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2022 United States Senate election in Georgia

(Redirected from 2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia)

For related races, see 2022 United States Senate elections.
Not to be confused with 2022 Georgia State Senate election.

The 2022 United States Senate election in Georgia was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the U.S. Senate to represent the state of Georgia. Incumbent Democratic senator Raphael Warnock won his first full term in office, defeating Republican former football player Herschel Walker. Under Georgia's two-round system, Warnock was re-elected in a runoff election on December 6 after neither candidate received over 50% of the vote on November 8.[1] Warnock's win was the only statewide victory for Democrats in Georgia in 2022.

2022 United States Senate election in Georgia
← 2020–21 (special) November 8, 2022 (first round)
December 6, 2022 (runoff)		 2028 →
 
Candidate Raphael Warnock Herschel Walker
Party Democratic Republican
First round 1,946,117
49.44% 		1,908,442
48.49%
Runoff 1,820,633
51.40% 		1,721,244
48.60%
Warnock:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Walker:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
U.S. senator before election

Raphael Warnock
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Raphael Warnock
Democratic

Warnock, who won a shortened term to the seat in a 2020–21 special election, was nominated in the May 24 primary for a full term with minimal opposition. Walker, who was endorsed by former president Donald Trump and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, won the Republican nomination with 68% of the vote. It was the first U.S. Senate election in Georgia history and among five nationwide since the passage of the Seventeenth Amendment in 1913 in which both major party nominees were Black.[2][3][a]

In the November 8 election, Warnock received 49.4% of the vote and Walker received 48.5%, triggering the December 6 runoff.[4] Warnock defeated Walker by a 2.8% margin in the runoff and became the first African-American from Georgia elected to a full term in the U.S. Senate. Warnock's victory also secured an outright majority for Senate Democrats for the first time since 2015, with a net gain of one seat in the 2022 midterms.[5][6] It was the third-closest Senate election of the 2022 midterms after Nevada and Wisconsin.

Democratic primary

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Warnock easily won renomination in the Democratic primary over Tamara Johnson-Shealey, a left-wing activist and businesswoman, who ran a low-profile campaign focused around reparations for slavery.[7][8]

Candidates

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Nominee

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Eliminated in primary

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Endorsements

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Raphael Warnock

State officials

Organizations

Labor unions

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Tamara
Johnson-Shealey 		Raphael
Warnock 		Undecided
Emerson College[27] April 1–3, 2022 453 (LV) ± 4.6% 6% 85% 10%

Results

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Results by county:
  Warnock
  •   80–90%
  •   90–100%
Democratic primary results[28]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Raphael Warnock (incumbent) 702,610 96.04%
Democratic Tamara Johnson-Shealey 28,984 3.96%
Total votes 731,594 100.0%

Republican primary

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Georgia Agriculture Commissioner Gary Black was the runner-up in the Republican primary.

Candidates

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Nominee

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Eliminated in primary

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Declined

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Debates

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2022 United States Senate Republican primary election in Georgia debates
No. Date Organizer Location Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee  W  Withdrawn 		Source
Gary Black Josh Clark Kelvin King Jonathan McColumn Latham Saddler Herschel Walker
1 April 9, 2022 Georgia's 9th congressional district Republican Party Gainesville P P P P P A [52]
2 May 3, 2022 Atlanta Press Club,
Georgia Public Broadcasting 		Atlanta P P P P P A [53]

Endorsements

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Gary Black

Governors

U.S. Representatives

State officials

Herschel Walker

Executive branch officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

Individuals

Organizations

  • American Conservative Union[65]
  • Black America's Political Action Committee[66]
  • National Right to Life[67]

Polling

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Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Gary
Black 		Josh
Clark 		Kelvin
King 		Jonathan
McColumn 		Latham
Saddler 		Herschel
Walker 		Other
[c] 		Margin
Real Clear Politics[68] May 12–23, 2022 May 24, 2022 9.0% 2.7% 4.0% 1.7% 9.0% 64.7% 12.9% Walker +55.7
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Gary
Black 		Josh
Clark 		Kelvin
King 		Jonathan
McColumn 		Latham
Saddler 		Herschel
Walker 		Other Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R)[69] May 21–23, 2022 1,074 (LV) ± 2.9% 10% 3% 4% 2% 10% 67% – 4%
Landmark Communications (R)[70] May 22, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 9% 3% 5% 2% 12% 60% – 9%
Fox News[71] May 12–16, 2022 1,004 (LV) ± 3.0% 8% 2% 3% 1% 5% 66% 1% 11%
ARW Strategies (R)[72] April 30 – May 1, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 10% 1% 3% 1% 4% 59% – 23%
SurveyUSA[73] April 22–27, 2022 559 (LV) ± 4.8% 6% 3% 2% 2% 3% 62% – 21%
University of Georgia[74] April 10–22, 2022 886 (LV) ± 3.3% 7% 1% 1% 1% 2% 66% – 23%
Landmark Communications (R)[75] April 9–10, 2022 660 (LV) ± 3.8% 9% 3% 4% 0% 5% 64% – 14%
Spry Strategies (R)[76] April 6–10, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 7% 2% 4% – 2% 64% – 21%
University of Georgia[77] March 20 – April 8, 2022 ~329 (LV) ± 5.4% 8% 0% 2% 0% 2% 64% – 24%
Emerson College[27] April 1–3, 2022 509 (LV) ± 4.3% 13% 4% 5% 3% 2% 57% 2%[d] 16%
Fox News[78] March 2–6, 2022 914 (LV) ± 3.0% 8% 1% 3% – 2% 66% 1% 16%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[79] February 28 – March 1, 2022 750 (LV) ± 3.6% 6% 3% 4% – 3% 63% 2% 20%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[80] February 11–13, 2022 1,072 (LV) ± 3.0% 6% – 2% – 3% 70% – 19%
Quinnipiac University[81] January 19–24, 2022 666 (LV) ± 3.8% 6% 0% 2% – 1% 81% 0%[e] 9%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[82][A] October 11–14, 2021 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 6% – 1% – 1% 74% 2%[f] 16%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[83] September 2–4, 2021 1,078 (LV) ± 3.0% 6% – 2% – 3% 76% – 13%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[84][B] August 11–12, 2021 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 5% – 2% – 1% 54% 3%[g] 35%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Doug
Collins 		Marjorie
Taylor Greene 		Kelly
Loeffler 		Herschel
Walker 		Undecided
OnMessage Inc. (R)[85] March 14–15, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 35% 7% 22% 27% 11%
Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage[86] March 7–9, 2021 – (LV)[h] – 33% – 24% 33% 11%

Primary runoff polling
Doug Collins vs. Kelly Loeffler

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Doug
Collins 		Kelly
Loeffler 		Undecided
OnMessage Inc. (R)[85] March 14–15, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 55% 36% 10%
Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage[86] March 7–9, 2021 – (LV)[h] – 52% 32% 16%

Herschel Walker vs. Doug Collins

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Herschel
Walker 		Doug
Collins 		Undecided
Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage[86] March 7–9, 2021 – (LV)[h] – 50% 36% 14%

Herschel Walker vs. Kelly Loeffler

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Herschel
Walker 		Kelly
Loeffler 		Undecided
Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage[86] March 7–9, 2021 – (LV)[h] – 62% 26% 11%

Results

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Results by county:
  Walker
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   90–100%
Republican primary results[28]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Herschel Walker 803,560 68.18%
Republican Gary Black 157,370 13.35%
Republican Latham Saddler 104,471 8.86%
Republican Josh Clark 46,693 3.96%
Republican Kelvin King 37,930 3.22%
Republican Jonathan McColumn 28,601 2.43%
Total votes 1,178,625 100.0%

Libertarian primary

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Libertarian nominee Chase Oliver

Candidates

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Declared

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General election

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[90] Tossup March 4, 2022
Inside Elections[91] Tossup April 1, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[92] Lean R (flip) November 7, 2022
Politico[93] Tossup April 1, 2022
RCP[94] Tossup February 24, 2022
Fox News[95] Tossup October 25, 2022
DDHQ[96] Tossup October 25, 2022
FiveThirtyEight[97] Lean R (flip) November 7, 2022
The Economist[98] Tossup November 1, 2022

Debates

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2022 United States Senate general election in Georgia debates
No. Date Host Moderator Link Democratic Republican Libertarian
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Not invited   I  Invited  W  Withdrawn
Raphael Warnock Herschel Walker Chase Oliver
1 Oct. 14, 2022 Nexstar Media Group Buck Lanford
Tina Tyus-Shaw 		P P N
2 Oct. 16, 2022 Georgia Public Broadcasting Scott Slade [99] P A P

Endorsements

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Raphael Warnock (D)

Executive Branch officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

State officials

Local officials

Individuals

Organizations

Labor unions

Herschel Walker (R)

Executive Branch officials

State officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

Individuals

Organizations

Declined to endorse

Statewide officials

Polling

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Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Raphael
Warnock (D) 		Herschel
Walker (R) 		Other
[c] 		Margin
Real Clear Politics[162] October 29 – November 7, 2022 November 7, 2022 47.4% 48.8% 3.8% Walker +1.4
FiveThirtyEight[163] October 13 – November 7, 2022 November 7, 2022 46.7% 47.7% 5.69% Walker +1.0
270ToWin[164] November 4–7, 2022 November 7, 2022 47.3% 48.5% 5.1% Walker +1.2
Average 47.1% 48.3% 4.6% Walker +1.2

Graphical summary

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Raphael
Warnock (D) 		Herschel
Walker (R) 		Chase
Oliver (L) 		Other Undecided
AtlasIntel[165] November 5–7, 2022 791 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 49% – 5%[i] –
Landmark Communications[166] November 4–7, 2022 1,214 (LV) ± 2.8% 46% 47% 5% – 2%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[167] November 6, 2022 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 47% 49% 1% – 4%
Research Co.[168] November 4–6, 2022 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 47% 47% 1% – 5%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[169] November 4–6, 2022 1,103 (LV) ± 2.9% 47% 50% 2% – 2%
Data for Progress (D)[170] November 2–6, 2022 1,474 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 49% 3% – –
Targoz Market Research[171] November 2–6, 2022 579 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 49% 1% 2%[j] –
East Carolina University[172] November 2–5, 2022 1,077 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 49% 2% – –
Amber Integrated (R)[173] November 1–2, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 48% 3% – 4%
Remington Research Group (R)[174] November 1–2, 2022 1,150 (LV) ± 2.8% 45% 49% 2% – 4%
Echleon Insights[175] October 31 – November 2, 2022 500 (LV) ± 5.4% 45% 49% 3% – 3%
45% 52% – – 3%
Marist College[176] October 31 – November 2, 2022 1,168 (RV) ± 3.9% 49% 45% – 1%[k] 6%
1,009 (LV) ± 4.2% 48% 48% – 1%[k] 3%
Moore Information Group (R)[177][C] October 29 – November 2, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.0% 44% 49% 2% – 5%
SurveyUSA[178] October 29 – November 2, 2022 1,171 (LV) ± 3.7% 49% 43% 3% – 5%
Patinkin Research Strategies (D)[179][D] October 30 – November 1, 2022 700 (RV) ± 3.7% 49% 45% 4% – 2%
Emerson College[180] October 28–31, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 47% 1% 1%[l] 2%
50% 48% 2% 1%[l] –
Fox News[181] October 26–30, 2022 1,002 (RV) ± 3.0% 44% 43% – 6%[m] 6%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[182] October 27, 2022 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 45% 48% 2% <1%[n] 5%
Siena College/NYT[183] October 24–27, 2022 604 (LV) ± 4.8% 49% 46% 1% – 4%
University of Georgia[184] October 16–27, 2022 1,022 (LV) ± 3.1% 45% 46% 5% – 5%
co/efficient (R)[185] October 24–25, 2022 946 (LV) ± 3.2% 44% 47% 3% – 6%
Moore Information Group (R)[186][C] October 22–25, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.0% 42% 46% 3% – –
Rasmussen Reports (R)[187] October 23–24, 2022 1,053 (LV) ± 3.0% 43% 48% – 4%[o] 4%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[188][E] October 21–23, 2022 1,076 (LV) ± 2.9% 47% 49% 5% – –
East Carolina University[189] October 13–18, 2022 905 (LV) ± 3.8% 49% 47% – 2%[p] 3%
Landmark Communications[190] October 15–17, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 46% 3% – 2%
Data for Progress (D)[191] October 13–17, 2022 984 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 47% 3% – 3%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[192] October 16, 2022 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 46% 43% 4% 1%[q] 6%
Wick Insights (R)[193] October 8–14, 2022 1,018 (LV) ± 3.1% 46% 46% – 3%[r] 5%
Civiqs[194] October 8–11, 2022 717 (LV) ± 4.6% 49% 46% – 3%[r] 1%
Moore Information Group (R)[195][C] October 8–11, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.0% 44% 46% 4% – –
The Trafalgar Group (R)[196] October 8–11, 2022 1,084 (LV) ± 2.9% 46% 45% 4% – 5%
Quinnipiac University[197] October 7–10, 2022 1,157 (LV) ± 2.9% 52% 45% – 1%[s] 1%
Emerson College[198] October 6–7, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 46% 1% 1%[l] 4%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[199] October 4, 2022 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 47% 44% 3% 1%[q] 5%
SurveyUSA[200] September 30 – October 4, 2022 1,076 (LV) ± 3.7% 50% 38% – 5%[t] 7%
University of Georgia[201] September 25 – October 4, 2022 1,030 (LV) ± 3.1% 46% 43% 4% – 6%
Fox News[202] September 22–26, 2022 1,011 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 41% – 6%[u] 7%
Data for Progress (D)[203] September 16–20, 2022 1,006 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 46% 4% – 3%
YouGov/CBS News[204] September 14–19, 2022 1,178 (RV) ± 4.0% 51% 49% – – 0%
University of Georgia[205] September 5–16, 2022 861 (LV) ± 3.3% 44% 46% – 3% 7%
Marist College[206] September 12–15, 2022 1,202 (RV) ± 3.6% 47% 42% 4% – 7%
992 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 45% 4% – 4%
Kurt Jetta (D)[207][F] September 9–12, 2022 949 (RV) ± 3.5% 50% 37% – – 13%
542 (LV) 49% 45% – – 7%
Quinnipiac University[208] September 8–12, 2022 1,278 (LV) ± 2.7% 52% 46% – 1% 2%
Echelon Insights[209] August 31 – September 7, 2022 751 (LV) ± 4.4% 50% 40% – – 10%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[210] September 6–7, 2022 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 44% 47% 4% – 5%
Emerson College[211] August 28–29, 2022 600 (LV) ± 3.9% 44% 46% – 4% 7%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[212] August 24–27, 2022 1,079 (LV) ± 2.9% 47% 48% 3% – 3%
Phillips Academy[213] August 3–7, 2022 971 (RV) ± 3.1% 44% 45% – – 11%
Research Affiliates (D)[214][G] July 26 – August 1, 2022 420 (LV) ± 4.8% 49% 46% – – 5%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[215] July 26–27, 2022 750 (LV) ± 3.6% 48% 45% 3% 1% 3%
Fox News[216] July 22–26, 2022 908 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 42% – 1% 9%
PEM Management Corporation (R)[217][H] July 22–24, 2022 300 (LV) ± 5.7% 42% 46% – 3% 9%
SurveyUSA[218] July 21–24, 2022 604 (LV) ± 5.3% 48% 39% – 5% 8%
University of Georgia[219] July 14–22, 2022 902 (LV) ± 3.3% 46% 43% 3% – 8%
Beacon Research (D)[220][I] July 5–20, 2022 1,003 (RV) ± 3.1% 48% 36% – 2% 11%
602 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 43% – 1% 7%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[221] July 5–11, 2022 1,197 (LV) ± 4.4% 50% 47% – – 3%
Data for Progress (D)[222] July 1–6, 2022 1,131 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 49% – – 4%
Change Research (D)[223][J] June 24–27, 2022 704 (LV) ± 3.7% 48% 44% – – 8%
Quinnipiac University[224] June 23–27, 2022 1,497 (RV) ± 2.5% 54% 44% – 0% 3%
Moore Information Group (R)[225][C] June 11–16, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 47% – – 6%
East Carolina University[226] June 6–9, 2022 868 (RV) ± 3.9% 47% 47% – 2% 4%
SurveyUSA[227] April 22–27, 2022 1,278 (LV) ± 3.4% 50% 45% – – 5%
Grassroots Targeting (R)[228][A] April 3–16, 2022 2,500 (RV) ± 2.0% 41% 51% – – 8%
Emerson College[27] April 1–3, 2022 1,013 (RV) ± 3.0% 45% 49% – – 6%
Blueprint Polling (D)[229] March 2–8, 2022 662 (LV) ± 3.9% 45% 49% – – 6%
Change Research (D)[223][J] March 2022 – (LV) – 48% 49% – – 3%
Wick Insights (R)[230] February 2–6, 2022 1,290 (LV) ± 2.7% 46% 47% – – 8%
Quinnipiac University[81] January 19–24, 2022 1,702 (RV) ± 2.4% 48% 49% – 0% 3%
University of Georgia[231] January 13–24, 2022 872 (RV) ± 3.3% 44% 47% – 1% 8%
NRSC (R)[232][K] December 4–8, 2021 831 (LV) ± 3.4% 48% 49% – – 3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[233] November 9, 2021 753 (RV) ± 3.6% 45% 39% – 2% 8%
733 (LV) 48% 42% – 2% 6%
Public Policy Polling (D)[234] August 4–5, 2021 622 (V) ± 3.9% 48% 46% – – 6%
The Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage (R)[235] March 7–9, 2021 1,093 (LV) ± 2.9% 46% 48% – 3% 4%
Hypothetical polling

Raphael Warnock vs. Gary Black

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Raphael
Warnock (D) 		Gary
Black (R) 		Other Undecided
University of Georgia[231] January 13–24, 2022 872 (RV) ± 3.3% 46% 41% 1% 11%
Public Policy Polling (D)[234] August 4–5, 2021 622 (V) ± 3.9% 46% 38% – 16%

Raphael Warnock vs. Kelly Loeffler

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Raphael
Warnock (D) 		Kelly
Loeffler (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[234] August 4–5, 2021 622 (V) ± 3.9% 47% 44% – 9%
The Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage (R)[235] March 7–9, 2021 1,093 (LV) ± 2.9% 46% 41% 8% 5%

Raphael Warnock vs. Doug Collins

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Raphael
Warnock (D) 		Doug
Collins (R) 		Other Undecided
The Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage (R)[235] March 7–9, 2021 1,093 (LV) ± 2.9% 46% 45% 5% 5%

Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Generic
Democrat 		Generic
Republican 		Undecided
Grassroots Targeting (R)[228][A] April 3–16, 2022 2,500 (RV) ± 2.0% 40% 52% 8%

Results

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Despite a strong gubernatorial performance by incumbent governor Brian Kemp in his reelection bid, and leading the polls since October, Walker ended up one point behind Warnock and was forced into a runoff. Ticket splitting was evident, as Walker underperformed Brian Kemp by 203,130 votes, while Warnock did 132,444 votes better than Abrams.[236]

2022 United States Senate election in Georgia[237]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Raphael Warnock (incumbent) 1,946,117 49.44% +1.05%
Republican Herschel Walker 1,908,442 48.49% −0.88%
Libertarian Chase Oliver 81,365 2.07% +1.35%
Total votes 3,935,924 100.0%

By congressional district

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Despite losing the state, Walker won 9 of 14 congressional districts.[238]

District Warnock Walker Representative
1st 42% 56% Buddy Carter
2nd 54% 45% Sanford Bishop
3rd 34% 63% Drew Ferguson
4th 80% 19% Hank Johnson
5th 84% 14% Nikema Williams
6th 41% 56% Lucy McBath (117th Congress)
Rich McCormick (118th Congress)
7th 63% 35% Carolyn Bourdeaux (117th Congress)
Lucy McBath (118th Congress)
8th 34% 64% Austin Scott
9th 29% 68% Andrew Clyde
10th 38% 60% Jody Hice (117th Congress)
Mike Collins (118th Congress)
11th 41% 56% Barry Loudermilk
12th 43% 56% Rick Allen
13th 82% 16% David Scott
14th 31% 67% Marjorie Taylor Greene

Voter demographics

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Voter demographic data for 2022 was collected by CNN. The voter survey is based on exit polls completed by voters in person as well as by phone.[239]

2022 United States Senate election voter demographics in Georgia (CNN)[239]
Demographic subgroup Warnock Walker Oliver % of
total vote
Ideology
Liberals 93 5 2 18
Moderates 66 32 2 41
Conservatives 11 88 1 41
Party
Democrats 97 2 0 35
Republicans 4 95 1 41
Independents 53 42 4 24
Gender
Men 44 54 2 47
Women 53 45 1 53
Marital status
Married 47 53 1 64
Unmarried 60 37 1 36
Gender by marital status
Married men 38 60 2 31
Married women 44 55 1 31
Unmarried men 58 39 3 15
Unmarried women 65 33 1 23
Race/ethnicity
White 29 70 1 62
Black 90 8 1 28
Latino 58 39 3 6
Asian 59 39 2 2
Other racial/ethnic groups 53 41 4 3
White voters by gender
White men 27 71 2 31
White women 30 68 1 30
Black men 85 12 2 11
Black women 93 5 1 17
Latino men 61 37 2 3
Latina women 55 41 4 4
All other races 55 40 3 4
Age
18–24 years old 69 28 3 6
25–29 years old 57 40 2 6
30–39 years old 57 40 3 14
40–49 years old 52 46 1 17
50–64 years old 44 54 1 32
65 and older 41 58 1 25
2020 presidential vote
Biden 97 3 0 43
Trump 4 95 1 48
First time midterm election voter
Yes 52 44 4 8
No 46 52 1 92
Education
Never attended college 39 59 1 16
Some college education 49 50 1 27
Associate degree 48 49 3 16
Bachelor's degree 47 51 2 23
Advanced degree 60 38 2 17
Education by race
White college graduates 40 58 2 27
White no college degree 19 79 1 34
Non-white college graduates 78 20 1 13
Non-white no college degree 82 15 2 25
Education by gender/race
White women with college degrees 44 54 1 13
White women without college degrees 20 79 1 17
White men with college degrees 36 61 2 14
White men without college degrees 19 80 1 18
Non-white 81 17 2 38
Issue regarded as most important
Crime 50 48 2 13
Abortion 77 21 1 26
Inflation 27 72 1 37
Gun Policy 58 40 1 10
Immigration 15 83 2 7
Feelings about Roe v. Wade being overturned
Enthusiastic/satisfied 16 83 1 43
Dissatisfied/angry 77 20 2 53
Abortion should be
Legal 75 23 1 53
Illegal 11 87 1 43
Area type
Urban 68 31 1 20
Suburban 48 49 2 53
Rual 35 65 1 27

Runoff

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Following the projection of incumbent Democratic senator Catherine Cortez Masto's victory in Nevada, it became clear that, unlike in the previous cycle, the results of the Georgia runoff would not determine control of the United States Senate. With all Democratic incumbents besides Warnock winning re-election and Democrat John Fetterman flipping an open seat in Pennsylvania that had been held by retiring Republican Pat Toomey, Democrats held their majority in the Senate.[v][240] Nevertheless, national Democrats and Republicans began spending on advertising and volunteer mobilization efforts as soon as it became apparent that a runoff election would be necessary.[241] Historically, runoff elections in Georgia have favored Republicans as turnout decreased disproportionately amongst Democratic voters, but in 2021, with Senate control to be determined, turnout was historically high.[242] Prior to the runoff, elections analysts questioned whether Georgia voters would turn out in such high numbers again and tried to determine which candidate's coalition of supporters would be more likely to turn out.[243] This was the fifth runoff in the state's history.

The early vote window was shorter in 2022 than in 2021 due to Georgia's Election Integrity Act of 2021, which reduced the gap between general and runoff elections from nine to four weeks.[244] State officials also said that there could be no weekend early voting: Georgia state law bars early voting from taking place the Saturday immediately before an election (December 3), and Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger argued that early voting also could not take place the next preceding Saturday (November 26), as it fell two days after Thanksgiving (November 24) and the day after a Georgia state holiday established to commemorate Confederate general Robert E. Lee's birthday (November 25).[w][247] On Friday, November 18, a Fulton County Superior Court judge ruled that, despite the holidays, county boards of election could legally offer early voting on Saturday, November 26;[248] that decision was upheld by the Georgia Court of Appeals on Monday, November 21,[249] and by the Supreme Court of Georgia on Wednesday, November 23.[250] Ultimately, 27 of Georgia's 159 counties chose to offer early voting on Saturday,[251] including the state's four largest counties, Fulton, Gwinnett, Cobb, and DeKalb.[252]

While Democrats retained control of the Senate during the 118th Congress regardless of the outcome of the Georgia runoff, Warnock's victory affected the functioning of that majority. During the 117th Congress, Senate Democrats made power-sharing agreements with Republicans, such as evenly dividing committee memberships between the two parties and giving Republicans greater ability to delay judicial appointments; with Warnock's win, Democrats attained an outright 51–49 majority,[1] allowing them to take full control of Senate committees and expedite judicial confirmations.[253] Looking beyond the 118th Congress, many analysts have noted that the outcome of this race will affect Democrats' prospects in the 2024 U.S. Senate elections. Election forecasters have noted that Democrats hold a number of seats up for election in 2024 which will be difficult for the party to defend,[x] and therefore that holding Georgia's seat bolstered the party's chances to maintain Senate control going forward.[253][254][255]

According to Ron Brownstein of CNN in 2023, Warnock won independent voters by double-digit margins, which contributed to Walker's defeat.[256]

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[257] Tossup November 18, 2022
Inside Elections[258] Tilt D December 1, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[259] Lean D December 5, 2022
DDHQ[260] Lean D December 6, 2022

Polling

edit

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Raphael
Warnock (D) 		Herschel
Walker (R) 		Undecided
[c] 		Margin
Real Clear Politics[261] November 11 – December 4, 2022 December 5, 2022 51.0% 47.3% 1.5% Warnock +3.7
FiveThirtyEight[262] November 26 – December 5, 2022 December 5, 2022 51.1% 47.2% 2.1% Warnock +3.9
270ToWin[263] November 22 – December 5, 2022 December 5, 2022 51.0% 47.7% 1.5% Warnock +3.3
Average 51.0% 47.4% 1.7% Warnock +3.6

Graphical summary

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Raphael
Warnock (D) 		Herschel
Walker (R) 		Other Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R)[264] December 3–5, 2022 1,099 (LV) ± 2.9% 51% 47% – 2%
Data for Progress (D)[265] December 1–5, 2022 1,229 (LV) ± 3.0% 51% 49% – –
InsiderAdvantage (R)[266] December 4, 2022 750 (LV) ± 3.6% 51% 48% – 1%
Landmark Communications[267] December 4, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 52% 47% – 1%
Mitchell Research[268] December 4, 2022 625 (LV) ± 3.6% 50% 45% – 5%
Patriot Polling[269] November 30 – December 2, 2022 818 (RV) – 49% 47% – 4%
Emerson College[270] November 28–30, 2022 888 (LV) ± 3.2% 51% 49% – –
49% 47% – 4%
SurveyUSA[271] November 26–30, 2022 1,214 (LV) ± 3.6% 50% 47% – 3%
50% 46% – 4%
CNN/SSRS[272] November 25–29, 2022 1,886 (RV) ± 3.0% 51% 44% 5%[y] –
1,184 (LV) ± 3.8% 52% 48% 1%[z] –
UMass Lowell/YouGov[273] November 18–28, 2022 1,300 (LV) ± 3.2% 51% 46% – 2%
Phillips Academy[274] November 26–27, 2022 862 (LV) ± 3.3% 47% 48% – 5%
Frederick Polls (D)[275][L] November 23–26, 2022 939 (LV) ± 3.1% 50% 50% – –
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[276] November 11–17, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 51% 47% – 2%

Results

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Warnock won Washington and Baldwin counties in the runoff, after having lost them in the general election, although he did win them in 2020.

2022 United States Senate runoff election in Georgia[277]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Raphael Warnock (incumbent) 1,820,633 51.40% +0.36%
Republican Herschel Walker 1,721,244 48.60% −0.36%
Total votes 3,541,877 100.0%
Democratic hold

By congressional district

edit

Despite losing the state, Walker won 9 of 14 congressional districts.[278]

District Warnock Walker Representative
1st 44% 56% Buddy Carter
2nd 56% 44% Sanford Bishop
3rd 36% 64% Drew Ferguson
4th 82% 18% Hank Johnson
5th 87% 13% Nikema Williams
6th 44% 56% Lucy McBath (117th Congress)
Rich McCormick (118th Congress)
7th 66% 34% Carolyn Bourdeaux (117th Congress)
Lucy McBath (118th Congress)
8th 35% 65% Austin Scott
9th 31% 69% Andrew Clyde
10th 39% 61% Jody Hice (117th Congress)
Mike Collins (118th Congress)
11th 43% 57% Barry Loudermilk
12th 44% 56% Rick Allen
13th 84% 16% David Scott
14th 32% 68% Marjorie Taylor Greene

See also

edit

Notes

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  1. ^ After Illinois in 2004 and South Carolina in 2014 and 2016, and concurrently with South Carolina in 2022.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ a b c Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  4. ^ Nestor with 2%
  5. ^ Craig and Nestor with 0%
  6. ^ Craig and Nestor with 1%
  7. ^ Carter with 3%
  8. ^ a b c d Likely Republican primary voter subsample of 1,093 likely general election voters
  9. ^ "Other candidate/Don't know" with 5%
  10. ^ "All others" with 2%
  11. ^ a b "Another party's candidate" with 1%
  12. ^ a b c "Someone else" with 1%
  13. ^ "Other" with 4%; "Wouldn't vote" with 2%
  14. ^ "Other" with <1%
  15. ^ "Some other candidate" with 4%
  16. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  17. ^ a b "Other" with 1%
  18. ^ a b "Someone else" with 3%
  19. ^ "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  20. ^ "Other candidate" with 5%
  21. ^ "Other" with 3%; "Wouldn't vote" with 3%
  22. ^ Two independent senators caucus with Senate Democrats and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris casts the tie-breaking vote.
  23. ^ While Lee's birthday was January 19, the state of Georgia had traditionally observed the holiday on the Friday after Thanksgiving. Since 2016, Georgia no longer references Lee on its official calendar, but the day is still observed as a state holiday and government operations are closed.[245][246]
  24. ^ Three Class 1 Democrats represent states won by Trump in 2020 (Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia), while no Class 1 Republicans represent states won by Biden. In addition, five Class 1 Democrats represent states won by Biden by less than his national popular vote margin (Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin).
  25. ^ "Do not plan to vote" with 5%
  26. ^ "Do not plan to vote" with 1%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b c This poll was sponsored by 34N22 Leadership, which supports Walker
  2. ^ This poll was sponsored by Save America PAC
  3. ^ a b c d This poll was sponsored by Walker's campaign
  4. ^ This poll was sponsored by Progress Georgia, an organization affiliated with the Georgia Democratic Party.
  5. ^ This poll was sponsored by The Daily Wire
  6. ^ This poll was sponsored by Center Street PAC, which opposes Walker
  7. ^ This poll was sponsored by Charlie Bailey's campaign for lieutenant governor
  8. ^ This poll was conducted for John Bolton Super PAC
  9. ^ This poll was sponsored by the Environmental Voter Project
  10. ^ a b This poll was sponsored by Future Majority and America's Future Majority Fund
  11. ^ This poll was sponsored by the National Republican Senatorial Committee
  12. ^ Poll conducted for COMPETE Everywhere, a digital marketing firm associated with the Democratic Party.

References

edit
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Official campaign websites

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