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2008 United States presidential election in Wisconsin

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Main article: 2008 United States presidential election

The 2008 United States presidential election in Wisconsin took place on November 4, 2008, as part of the 2008 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. State voters chose 10 electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting Democratic U.S. Senator from Illinois Barack Obama, and his running mate U.S. Senator from Delaware Joe Biden, against Republican challenger and U.S. Senator from Arizona John McCain and his running mate, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.

2008 United States presidential election in Wisconsin
← 2004 November 4, 2008 2012 →
Turnout69.2% (Decrease 3.7%)[1]
 
Nominee Barack Obama John McCain
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Illinois Arizona
Running mate Joe Biden Sarah Palin
Electoral vote 10 0
Popular vote 1,677,211 1,262,393
Percentage 56.22% 42.31%
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

Also on the ballot were four third parties: activist and former presidential candidate Ralph Nader ran as an Independent with his running mate, President of the San Francisco Board of Supervisors Matt Gonzalez. The Libertarian Party nominated former Representative from Georgia Bob Barr for president and conservative author Wayne Allyn Root for vice president. Pastor Chuck Baldwin and attorney Darrell Castle were nominated by the right-wing Constitution Party, and the left-wing Green Party nominated former Representative from Georgia Cynthia McKinney and community organizer Rosa Clemente.[2]

Wisconsin was won by Democratic nominee Barack Obama by a 13.91% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 17 news organizations considered this a state Obama would win, or otherwise considered as a safe blue state, despite the extremely close margins of victory in the previous two presidential elections. Polling throughout the state began to show a sizable and widening lead for Democrat Barack Obama of neighboring Illinois over Republican John McCain of Arizona. Obama carried Wisconsin with over 56% of the vote, significantly improving upon John Kerry's very narrow margin of victory in 2004. Obama is the only candidate since 1988 to win the state with the majority of the vote, and the only candidate since 1996 to win by a margin of more than 1%, both of which he would go on to do again in 2012.

Whether measured by raw vote margin, percentage of total votes, or two-party percentage, Obama's victory remains the strongest performance for any candidate in the state since the landslide re-election of Democrat Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. In fact, Obama carried two of three counties that voted for Barry Goldwater in that election and became the first Democrat since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936 to carry Waupaca County, and only the second Democratic nominee to carry that county since the Civil War. This is also the last election where Wisconsin was decided by double digits.

Primaries

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Campaign

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Predictions

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There were 16 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

Source Ranking
D.C. Political Report[3] Likely D
Cook Political Report[4] Solid D
The Takeaway[5] Solid D
Electoral-vote.com[6] Solid D
Washington Post[7] Solid D
Politico[8] Solid D
RealClearPolitics[9] Solid D
FiveThirtyEight[7] Solid D
CQ Politics[10] Solid D
The New York Times[11] Lean D
CNN[12] Lean D
NPR[7] Solid D
MSNBC[7] Solid D
Fox News[13] Likely D
Associated Press[14] Likely D
Rasmussen Reports[15] Safe D

Polling

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Main article: Statewide opinion polling for the 2008 United States presidential election: Wisconsin

Pre-election polling early on showed a tight race. However, after May 18, Obama swept every single poll. Since September 21, Obama won every poll with at least 49% of the vote. The final 3 polls averaged Obama leading 53% to 40%.[16]

Fundraising

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John McCain raised a total of $1,728,185 in the state. Barack Obama raised $4,862,486.[17]

Advertising and visits

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Obama and his interest groups spent $13,586,634. McCain and his interest groups spent $9,240,899.[18] Each ticket visited the state 7 times.[19]

Analysis

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Having voted for the Democratic presidential nominees by comfortable margins in 1988, 1992, and 1996, but extremely narrow margins in 2000 and 2004, Wisconsin was originally considered to be a swing state in 2008.[20] However, Obama took a wide lead in the polls in Wisconsin in the final weeks before the election and many pundits and news organizations labeled the state as a safe blue state.[21]

Obama won Wisconsin by a comfortable 13.91% margin of victory. Obama carried the heavily Democratic cities of Milwaukee and Madison by large margins, winning above two-thirds of the vote, along with some traditionally Republican cities like Green Bay and Appleton.[22] In Dane County, he won almost 73% of the vote, and carried 67.3% in Milwaukee County. This was consistent with Obama's pattern of strong performances in the states bordering Illinois. Obama's best performance, at 86.81%, was in the small county of Menominee, which is 87% Native American.[23] The state's Republican base essentially melted; John McCain only carried 13 of the state's 72 counties, a devastating defeat. McCain did best in the Milwaukee suburbs like Waukesha and Ozaukee counties, with his best performance in Washington County where he received 64.14% of the vote. He only won five counties in the Northern part of the state, all of which by rather narrow margins.

Results

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2008 United States presidential election in Wisconsin[2]
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic Barack Obama Joe Biden 1,677,211 56.22% 10
Republican John McCain Sarah Palin 1,262,393 42.31% 0
Independent Ralph Nader Matt Gonzalez 17,605 0.59% 0
Libertarian Bob Barr Wayne Allyn Root 8,858 0.30% 0
Write-ins Write-ins 6,521 0.22% 0
Independent[a] Chuck Baldwin Darrell Castle 5,072 0.17% 0
Green Cynthia McKinney Rosa Clemente 4,216 0.14% 0
Independent[b] Jeffrey Wamboldt 764 0.03% 0
Independent[c] Brian Moore Stewart Alexander 540 0.02% 0
Independent[d] Gloria La Riva 237 0.01% 0
Totals 2,983,417 100.00% 10
Voter turnout (Voting age population) 70.8%

By county

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County Barack Obama
Democratic 		John McCain
Republican 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # %
Adams 5,806 58.14% 3,974 39.80% 206 2.06% 1,832 18.34% 9,986
Ashland 5,818 67.86% 2,634 30.72% 122 1.42% 3,184 37.14% 8,574
Barron 12,078 52.77% 10,457 45.69% 351 1.54% 1,621 7.08% 22,886
Bayfield 5,972 63.08% 3,365 35.54% 131 1.38% 2,607 27.54% 9,468
Brown 67,269 53.92% 55,854 44.77% 1,631 1.31% 11,415 9.15% 124,754
Buffalo 3,949 56.41% 2,923 41.76% 128 1.83% 1,026 14.65% 7,000
Burnett 4,337 49.92% 4,200 48.34% 151 1.74% 137 1.58% 8,688
Calumet 13,295 50.22% 12,722 48.05% 457 1.73% 573 2.17% 26,474
Chippewa 16,239 53.72% 13,492 44.63% 500 1.65% 2,747 9.09% 30,231
Clark 7,454 52.54% 6,383 44.99% 350 2.47% 1,071 7.55% 14,187
Columbia 16,661 56.92% 12,193 41.65% 418 1.43% 4,468 15.27% 29,272
Crawford 4,987 62.49% 2,830 35.46% 164 2.05% 2,157 27.03% 7,981
Dane 205,984 72.80% 73,065 25.82% 3,890 1.37% 132,919 46.98% 282,939
Dodge 19,183 44.80% 23,015 53.74% 625 1.46% -3,832 -8.94% 42,823
Door 10,142 58.02% 7,112 40.68% 227 1.30% 3,030 17.34% 17,481
Douglas 15,830 65.78% 7,835 32.56% 401 1.66% 7,995 33.22% 24,066
Dunn 13,002 56.56% 9,566 41.61% 421 1.83% 3,436 14.95% 22,989
Eau Claire 33,146 60.25% 20,959 38.10% 905 1.65% 12,187 22.15% 55,010
Florence 1,134 42.23% 1,512 56.31% 39 1.46% -378 -14.08% 2,685
Fond du Lac 23,463 44.84% 28,164 53.83% 696 1.33% -4,701 -8.99% 52,323
Forest 2,673 57.08% 1,963 41.92% 47 1.00% 710 15.16% 4,683
Grant 14,875 61.16% 9,068 37.29% 377 1.55% 5,807 23.87% 24,320
Green 11,502 62.06% 6,730 36.31% 302 1.63% 4,772 25.75% 18,534
Green Lake 4,000 41.95% 5,393 56.55% 143 1.50% -1,393 -14.60% 9,536
Iowa 7,987 66.73% 3,829 31.99% 153 1.28% 4,158 34.74% 11,969
Iron 1,914 55.77% 1,464 42.66% 54 1.57% 450 13.11% 3,432
Jackson 5,572 60.23% 3,552 38.40% 127 1.37% 2,020 21.83% 9,251
Jefferson 21,448 49.69% 21,096 48.87% 622 1.44% 352 0.82% 43,166
Juneau 6,186 53.65% 5,148 44.65% 196 1.70% 1,038 9.00% 11,530
Kenosha 45,836 58.18% 31,609 40.12% 1,344 1.70% 14,227 18.06% 78,789
Kewaunee 5,902 54.71% 4,711 43.67% 174 1.62% 1,191 11.04% 10,787
La Crosse 38,524 60.94% 23,701 37.49% 993 1.57% 14,823 23.45% 63,218
Lafayette 4,732 60.43% 2,984 38.10% 115 1.47% 1,748 22.33% 7,831
Langlade 5,182 49.82% 5,081 48.85% 139 1.33% 101 0.97% 10,402
Lincoln 8,424 55.17% 6,519 42.70% 325 2.13% 1,905 12.47% 15,268
Manitowoc 22,428 52.88% 19,234 45.35% 752 1.77% 3,194 7.53% 42,414
Marathon 36,367 53.53% 30,345 44.66% 1,228 1.81% 6,022 8.87% 67,940
Marinette 11,195 52.67% 9,726 45.76% 334 1.57% 1,469 6.91% 21,255
Marquette 4,068 51.85% 3,654 46.57% 124 1.58% 414 5.28% 7,846
Menominee 1,257 86.81% 185 12.78% 6 0.41% 1,072 74.03% 1,448
Milwaukee 319,819 67.30% 149,445 31.45% 5,928 1.25% 170,374 35.85% 475,192
Monroe 10,198 53.25% 8,666 45.25% 288 1.50% 1,532 8.00% 19,152
Oconto 9,927 52.34% 8,755 46.16% 286 1.50% 1,172 6.18% 18,968
Oneida 11,907 54.30% 9,630 43.92% 390 1.78% 2,277 10.38% 21,927
Outagamie 50,294 54.93% 39,677 43.33% 1,592 1.74% 10,617 11.60% 91,563
Ozaukee 20,579 38.56% 32,172 60.29% 614 1.15% -11,593 -21.73% 53,365
Pepin 2,102 55.74% 1,616 42.85% 53 1.41% 486 12.89% 3,771
Pierce 11,803 53.39% 9,812 44.38% 492 2.23% 1,991 9.01% 22,107
Polk 10,876 48.03% 11,282 49.83% 485 2.14% -406 -1.80% 22,643
Portage 24,817 62.95% 13,810 35.03% 795 2.02% 11,007 27.92% 39,422
Price 4,559 55.64% 3,461 42.24% 174 2.12% 1,098 13.40% 8,194
Racine 53,408 53.07% 45,954 45.66% 1,280 1.27% 7,454 7.41% 100,642
Richland 5,041 59.66% 3,298 39.03% 111 1.31% 1,743 20.63% 8,450
Rock 50,529 63.82% 27,364 34.56% 1,276 1.62% 23,165 29.26% 79,169
Rusk 3,855 53.01% 3,253 44.73% 164 2.26% 602 8.28% 7,272
St. Croix 21,177 47.25% 22,837 50.95% 807 1.80% -1,660 -3.70% 44,821
Sauk 18,617 60.79% 11,562 37.75% 447 1.46% 7,055 23.04% 30,626
Sawyer 4,765 52.45% 4,199 46.22% 121 1.33% 566 6.23% 9,085
Shawano 10,259 51.07% 9,538 47.48% 292 1.45% 721 3.59% 20,089
Sheboygan 30,395 48.94% 30,801 49.59% 911 1.47% -406 -0.65% 62,107
Taylor 4,563 48.82% 4,586 49.07% 197 2.11% -23 -0.25% 9,346
Trempealeau 8,321 62.50% 4,808 36.11% 185 1.39% 3,513 26.39% 13,314
Vernon 8,463 60.13% 5,367 38.13% 245 1.74% 3,096 22.00% 14,075
Vilas 6,491 47.21% 7,055 51.31% 204 1.48% -564 -4.10% 13,750
Walworth 24,177 47.95% 25,485 50.54% 760 1.51% -1,308 -2.59% 50,422
Washburn 4,693 51.50% 4,303 47.22% 116 1.28% 390 4.28% 9,112
Washington 25,719 34.56% 47,729 64.14% 963 1.30% -22,010 -29.58% 74,411
Waukesha 85,339 36.64% 145,152 62.32% 2,406 1.04% -59,813 -25.68% 232,897
Waupaca 12,952 50.77% 12,232 47.95% 327 1.28% 720 2.82% 25,511
Waushara 5,868 49.52% 5,770 48.70% 211 1.78% 98 0.82% 11,849
Winnebago 48,167 54.94% 37,946 43.28% 1,564 1.78% 10,221 11.66% 87,677
Wood 21,710 55.59% 16,581 42.46% 761 1.95% 5,129 13.13% 39,052
Totals 1,677,211 56.22% 1,262,393 42.31% 43,813 1.47% 414,818 13.91% 2,983,417

By congressional district

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Barack Obama swept the state, carrying seven of the state's eight congressional districts, including two districts held by Republicans. Three of these districts – the 1st (then represented by future vice presidential nominee and Speaker of the House Paul Ryan), 6th, and 8th – Obama flipped from the 2004 election.[24] McCain only won the 5th district, a portion of the Milwaukee suburbs.

District McCain Obama Representative
1st 47.45% 51.40% Paul Ryan
2nd 29.78% 69.00% Tammy Baldwin
3rd 40.80% 57.76% Ron Kind
4th 23.61% 75.39% Gwen Moore
5th 57.73% 41.28% Jim Sensenbrenner
6th 48.72% 49.91% Tom Petri
7th 42.52% 55.91% David Obey
8th 45.12% 53.59% Steve Kagen

Electors

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Main article: List of 2008 United States presidential electors

Technically the voters of Wisconsin cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Wisconsin is allocated 10 electors because it has 8 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 10 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 10 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[25]

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 10 were pledged to Barack Obama and Joe Biden:[26]

  1. Ray Rivera
  2. Fred Risser
  3. Rollie Hick
  4. Polly Williams
  5. Dean Palmer
  6. Gordon Hintz
  7. Christine Bremer-Muggli
  8. Donsia Strong Hill
  9. Jim Doyle
  10. Joe Wineke

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ Ran as the national Constitution Party nominee, listed as an Independent on the ballot
  2. ^ Ran as a national nominee of the We the People Foundation, listed as an Independent on the ballot
  3. ^ Ran as the national Socialist Party USA nominee, listed as an Independent on the ballot
  4. ^ Ran as the national Party for Socialism and Liberation nominee, listed as an Independent on the ballot

References

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  1. ^ "Wisconsin Voter Turnout Statistics". Wisconsin Election Commission. Retrieved September 25, 2020.
  2. ^ a b "OFFICIAL GENERAL ELECTION RESULTS FOR UNITED STATES PRESIDENT - NOVEMBER 4, 2008" (pdf). Federal Election Commission. Archived (pdf) from the original on November 3, 2023. Retrieved December 30, 2023.
  3. ^ "D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries". January 1, 2009. Archived from the original on January 1, 2009. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
  4. ^ "Presidential". May 5, 2015. Archived from the original on May 5, 2015. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
  5. ^ "Vote 2008 - The Takeaway - Track the Electoral College vote predictions". April 22, 2009. Archived from the original on April 22, 2009. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
  6. ^ "Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily". electoral-vote.com. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
  7. ^ a b c d Based on Takeaway
  8. ^ "POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com". www.politico.com. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
  9. ^ "RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map". Archived from the original on June 5, 2008.
  10. ^ "CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on June 14, 2009. Retrieved December 20, 2009.
  11. ^ Nagourney, Adam; Zeleny, Jeff; Carter, Shan (November 4, 2008). "The Electoral Map: Key States". The New York Times. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  12. ^ "October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs". CNN. October 31, 2008. Archived from the original on June 19, 2010. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  13. ^ "Winning The Electoral College". Fox News. April 27, 2010.
  14. ^ "roadto270". hosted.ap.org. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
  15. ^ "Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports". www.rasmussenreports.com. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
  16. ^ "Election 2008 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". Retrieved December 19, 2022.
  17. ^ "Presidential Campaign Finance". Archived from the original on March 24, 2009. Retrieved August 18, 2009.
  18. ^ "Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  19. ^ "Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  20. ^ "Reality Check: Wisconsin Still Considered A Swing State". Archived from the original on September 16, 2008. Retrieved November 12, 2008.
  21. ^ "RealClearPolitics: Wisconsin Head-to-Head Polls". Retrieved November 12, 2008.
  22. ^ "Local and National Election Results". CNN. Retrieved November 12, 2008.
  23. ^ "U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts: Menominee County, Wisconsin; Wisconsin". www.census.gov. Retrieved November 18, 2020.
  24. ^ "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project". Retrieved November 18, 2020.
  25. ^ "Electoral College". California Secretary of State. Archived from the original on October 30, 2008. Retrieved November 1, 2008.
  26. ^ "The Electoral College". May 20, 2019.
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