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2016 United States presidential election in Connecticut

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Main article: 2016 United States presidential election

The 2016 United States presidential election in Connecticut was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Connecticut voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Connecticut has seven electoral votes in the Electoral College.[1]

2016 United States presidential election in Connecticut
← 2012 November 8, 2016 2020 →
Turnout76.94% Increase
 
Nominee Hillary Clinton Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state New York New York
Running mate Tim Kaine Mike Pence
Electoral vote 7 0
Popular vote 897,572 673,215
Percentage 54.57% 40.93%
President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Treemap of the popular vote by county.

Clinton won the state by 13.64%, a smaller margin of victory than outgoing President Barack Obama's 17.33% in 2012.[2] Clinton carried six of the state's eight counties; however, Trump was the first Republican presidential candidate to win Windham County since George H. W. Bush in 1988.

Trump's strongest county in the state was rural Litchfield County, while Clinton's biggest win was in adjacent, more urban Hartford County.[3] Areas that swung in Clinton's favor were mainly concentrated in suburban Fairfield County, in towns like Greenwich, Darien, New Canaan, and Westport.[4][3] This area is home to many New York City commuters. Other Democratic swings happened in suburbs outside Hartford, such as Avon, Granby, East Granby, and Glastonbury, as well as outside New Haven, in towns like Guilford, Madison, and Woodbridge.[4][3] This was the first time since 1888 that Darien and the first time since 1912 that Easton voted Democratic, largely due to opposition to the populist Trump among historically Republican affluent and educated voters. By contrast, areas that swung hard for Trump were mainly located in Windham County and northern New London County, in towns like Killingly, Sterling, Plainfield, and Voluntown.[5] This mirrored a national trend of Trump gaining White working-class support.

Primary elections

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Democratic primary

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Main article: 2016 Connecticut Democratic presidential primary

Three candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot:[6]

Opinion polling

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See also: Statewide opinion polling for the 2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries § Connecticut

Results

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See also: Results of the 2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries
e • d 2016 Democratic Party's presidential nominating process in Connecticut
– Summary of results –
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Hillary Clinton 170,045 51.80% 28 15 43
Bernie Sanders 152,379 46.42% 27 0 27
Roque "Rocky" De La Fuente 960 0.29% 0 0 0
Uncommitted 4,871 1.48% 0 1 1
Total 328,255 100% 55 16 71
Source: [7][8]

Republican primary

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Republican primary results by county(left) and municipality(right).
  Donald Trump
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  John Kasich
  •   40–50%

Four candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:[6]

Opinion polling

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See also: Statewide opinion polling for the 2016 Republican Party presidential primaries § Connecticut

Results

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See also: Results of the 2016 Republican Party presidential primaries
Connecticut Republican primary, April 26, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 123,523 57.86% 28 0 28
John Kasich 60,522 28.35% 0 0 0
Ted Cruz 24,987 11.70% 0 0 0
Uncommitted 2,728 1.28% 0 0 0
Ben Carson (withdrawn) 1,733 0.81% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 0 0
Total: 213,493 100.00% 28 0 28
Source: The Green Papers


General election

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Polling

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See also: Statewide opinion polling for the 2016 United States presidential election § Connecticut

Clinton won every pre-election poll conducted. An average of the final 3 polls showed Clinton leading 49% to 38%, and the final poll showed Clinton leading Trump 50% to 35%.[9]

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
Los Angeles Times[10] Safe D November 6, 2016
CNN[11] Safe D November 4, 2016
Cook Political Report[12] Safe D November 7, 2016
Electoral-vote.com[13] Safe D November 8, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[14] Safe D November 7, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Safe D November 7, 2016
RealClearPolitics[16] Lean D November 8, 2016
Fox News[17] Safe D November 7, 2016

Results

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2016 United States presidential election in Connecticut
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Hillary Clinton 897,572 54.57%
Republican Donald Trump 673,215 40.93%
Libertarian Gary Johnson 48,676 2.96%
Green Jill Stein 22,841 1.39%
Independent Evan McMullin (write-in) 2,108 0.13%
Write-in 361 0.02%
Constitution Darrell Castle (write-in) 147 0.01%
Total votes 1,644,920 100.00%

By county

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County Hillary Clinton
Democratic 		Donald Trump
Republican 		Gary Johnson
Libertarian 		Jill Stein
Green 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # % # % # %
Fairfield 243,852 57.89% 160,077 38.00% 11,691 2.78% 4,866 1.16% 723 0.18% 83,775 19.89% 421,209
Hartford 240,403 59.09% 148,173 36.42% 11,997 2.95% 5,680 1.40% 611 0.15% 92,230 22.67% 406,864
Litchfield 39,775 40.82% 53,051 54.44% 3,004 3.08% 1,441 1.48% 171 0.17% -13,276 -13.62% 97,442
Middlesex 45,357 51.18% 38,867 43.86% 2,760 3.11% 1,497 1.69% 143 0.16% 6,490 7.32% 88,624
New Haven 205,609 54.25% 159,048 41.96% 9,119 2.41% 4,757 1.26% 473 0.13% 46,561 12.29% 379,006
New London 62,278 50.42% 54,058 43.76% 4,744 3.84% 2,220 1.80% 228 0.19% 8,220 6.66% 123,528
Tolland 38,506 49.73% 34,194 44.16% 3,181 4.11% 1,370 1.77% 173 0.23% 4,312 5.57% 77,424
Windham 21,792 42.88% 25,747 50.66% 2,180 4.29% 1,010 1.99% 94 0.18% -3,955 -7.78% 50,823
Total 897,572 54.57% 673,215 40.93% 48,676 2.96% 22,841 1.39% 2,616 0.16% 224,357 13.64% 1,644,920
 
 
 

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

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Clinton won all 5 congressional districts.[19]

District Clinton Trump Representative
1st 59.4% 36.32% John B. Larson
2nd 48.66% 45.77% Joe Courtney
3rd 55.88% 40.38% Rosa DeLauro
4th 59.57% 36.56% Jim Himes
5th 49.93% 45.83% Elizabeth Esty

Turnout

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According to Connecticut's Secretary of State Elections Night Reporting website, voter turnout was 76.94% with 1,675,934 voters checked reported out of 2,178,169 Registered Voters Reported.[20]

See also

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References

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  1. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. September 19, 2019. Retrieved November 23, 2020.
  2. ^ "Connecticut Election Results 2016 – The New York Times". Retrieved November 10, 2016.
  3. ^ a b c "Statement of Vote. General election" (PDF). Retrieved March 11, 2023.
  4. ^ a b "Statement of Vote. General election. November 6, 2012" (PDF). Retrieved March 11, 2023.
  5. ^ Statement of Vote
  6. ^ a b "Secretary Merrill Selects Presidential Primary Ballot Order" (PDF). Secretary of the State of Connecticut. March 22, 2016. Archived from the original (PDF) on August 6, 2016. Retrieved May 21, 2016.
  7. ^ The Green Papers
  8. ^ Connecticut Secretary of State - Official Primary Results
  9. ^ "RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Connecticut: Trump vs. Clinton".
  10. ^ "Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours". Los Angeles Times. November 6, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  11. ^ Chalian, David (November 4, 2016). "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  12. ^ "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report. November 7, 2016. Archived from the original on March 1, 2019. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  13. ^ "2016 Electoral Map Prediction". Electoral-vote.com. November 8, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  14. ^ "Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
  15. ^ Sabato, Larry J. (November 7, 2016). "2016 President". University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  16. ^ "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  17. ^ "Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge". Fox News. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  18. ^ Bump, Philip. "The counties that flipped parties to swing the 2016 election". Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved September 1, 2020.
  19. ^ "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 11, 2020.
  20. ^ Connecticut Secretary of State Elections Last edited 2020-07-9 Retrieved 2020-07-09 Archived 2020-11-08 at the Wayback Machine
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