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2004 United States Senate election in Wisconsin

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The 2004 United States Senate election in Wisconsin was held on November 2, 2004. Incumbent Senator Russ Feingold won re-election to a third term. As of 2024, this is the last time Democrats won the Class 3 Senate seat from Wisconsin. Russ Feingold defeated Tim Michels in a landslide despite John Kerry narrowly winning Wisconsin over Republican presidential nominee George W. Bush in the concurrent presidential election.

2004 United States Senate election in Wisconsin
← 1998 November 2, 2004 2010 →
 
Nominee Russ Feingold Tim Michels
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 1,632,697 1,301,183
Percentage 55.35% 44.11%
Feingold:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Michels:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      
U.S. senator before election

Russ Feingold
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Russ Feingold
Democratic

Candidates

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Democratic

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Democratic primary results[2]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Russ Feingold 251,915 99.66%
Democratic Scattering 862 0.34%
Total votes 252,777 100.00%

Republican

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  • Russ Darrow[3]
  • Robert Gerald Lorge[3]
  • Tim Michels, businessman and army veteran[1]
  • Robert Welch, State Senator
Republican Primary results[2]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Tim Michels 183,654 42.43%
Republican Russ Darrow 130,088 30.05%
Republican Robert Welch 99,971 23.09%
Republican Robert Gerald Lorge 18,809 4.35%
Republican Scattering 350 0.08%
Total votes 432,872 100.0%

Minor candidates

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Libertarian

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  • Arif Khan, entrepreneur[4]

Independent

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  • Eugene Hem, perennial candidate and former educator[5]

General election

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Campaign

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Michels insisted he had more real world experience than Feingold, someone he called an "extreme liberal" who was out of touch with Wisconsin voters.[6] Feingold attacked back by saying that any Republican would be a rubber stamp for President Bush. The incumbent had $2.2 million in the bank, while Michels had already spent $1 million in the primary and had only about $150,000 left.[7]

During both the primary and general election campaigns, Michels ran a series of ads attacking Feingold for his status as the sole senator to oppose the 2001 Patriot Act. One of his earliest ads during the primary accused Feingold of putting "his liberal ideology before our safety", while another primary spot featured footage of the September 11 Attacks and a voice-over saying that "our leaders passed new laws to keep us safe. But Russ Feingold voted against those laws."[8] After easily winning the Republican primary against three opponents, Michel released two more anti-Feingold spots focusing on the Patriot Act. One of the ads showed further footage of the September 11 attacks, while another depicted a Middle Eastern spy photographing a Wisconsin nuclear power plant before Michels appears on-screen and announces that "Unlike Russ Feingold, I will support renewing the PATRIOT Act, because we need to be able to track and stop terrorists before they strike again."[8] Michels reported that one-fifth of his campaign's advertising budget was devoted to making and airing the spots.[8]

In October, based on a belief that Feingold was vulnerable due in part to his vote on the Patriot Act, the NRSC pledged $600,000 in support of the Michel campaign. However, after the Michel commercials generated negative attention and Feingold continued to lead comfortably in most polls, the party rescinded their financial assistance.[9] On October 1, a poll showed Feingold leading 52% to 39%.[10] In mid October, another poll showed Feingold winning 48% to 43%. A poll at the end of the month showed him leading 51% to 36%.[11]

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
Sabato's Crystal Ball[12] Safe D November 1, 2004

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[13] 		Margin
of error 		Russ
Feingold (D) 		Tim
Michels (R) 		Arif
Khan (L) 		Undecided
Zogby International[14] October 27–30, 2004 601 (LV) ± 4.1% 57% 37% 6%
Tarrance Group (R)[15] October 29, 2004 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 48% 43% 9%
Zogby International[16] October 26–29, 2004 600 (LV) ± 4.1% 57% 37% 6%
Tarrance Group (R)[15] October 28, 2004 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 49% 41% 10%
Zogby International[17] October 25–28, 2004 601 (LV) ± 4.1% 57% 37% 6%
Tarrance Group (R)[15] October 27, 2004 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 51% 41% 8%
Zogby International[18] October 24–27, 2004 601 (LV) ± 4.1% 59% 36% 5%
University of Wisconsin[19] October 23–27, 2004 545 (V) ± 4% 51% 36% 13%
Tarrance Group (R)[15] October 26, 2004 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 52% 39% 9%
Zogby International[20] October 23–26, 2004 601 (LV) ± 4.1% 57% 38% 5%
Tarrance Group (R)[15] October 25, 2004 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 52% 40% 8%
Zogby International[21] October 22–25, 2004 601 (LV) ± 4.1% 54% 41% 5%
Zogby International[22] October 21–24, 2004 601 (LV) ± 4.1% 54% 42% 4%
Rasmussen Reports[23] October 14, 2004 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 53% 43% 2% 2%
St. Norbert College[24] October 4–13, 2004 401 (LV) ± 5% 56% 33% 11%
Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV[25] October 2004 57% 33% 10%
Harris Interactive[26] September 22–26, 2004 562 (V) ± 4% 52% 39% 9%
University of Wisconsin[27] September 15–21, 2004 485 (LV) ± 4.5% 53% 38% 9%
ABC News[28] September 16–19, 2004 775 (LV) ± 3.5% 51% 45% 4%
University of Wisconsin[29] June 15–23, 2004 504 (V) ± 4% 36% 12% 52%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[13] 		Margin
of error 		Russ
Feingold (D) 		Russ
Darrow (R) 		Undecided
University of Wisconsin[29] June 15–23, 2004 504 (V) ± 4% 40% 16% 44%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[13] 		Margin
of error 		Russ
Feingold (D) 		Robert
Welch (R) 		Undecided
University of Wisconsin[29] June 15–23, 2004 504 (V) ± 4% 36% 10% 54%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[13] 		Margin
of error 		Russ
Feingold (D) 		Robert Gerald
Lorge (R) 		Undecided
University of Wisconsin[29] June 15–23, 2004 504 (V) ± 4% 39% 10% 51%

Results

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General election results[30]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Russ Feingold (incumbent) 1,632,697 55.35%
Republican Tim Michels 1,301,183 44.11%
Libertarian Arif Khan 8,367 0.28%
Independent Eugene A. Hem 6,662 0.23%
Write-in 834 0.03%
Total votes 2,949,743 100.00%
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped Republican to Democratic

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Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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See also

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References

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  1. ^ a b "2004 SENATE RACES" (PDF). CBS News. Retrieved January 10, 2020.
  2. ^ a b "Archived copy". elections.state.wi.us. Archived from the original on May 14, 2005. Retrieved July 20, 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  3. ^ a b "Our Campaigns - WI US Senate - R Primary Race - Sep 14, 2004".
  4. ^ "In Wisconsin, a Muslim Libertarian for Senate". The Pluralism Project. July 6, 2004. Retrieved January 10, 2020.
  5. ^ Thoreson, Bridget (October 27, 2004). "Incumbent Feingold faces competition in Senate race". Marquette Wire. Retrieved January 11, 2020.
  6. ^ "MICHELS TOUTS RURAL ROOTS IN JOINING GOP SENATE RACE.(FRONT) - The Capital Times | HighBeam Research". November 4, 2012. Archived from the original on November 4, 2012.
  7. ^ "Michels, Feingold already sparring". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. September 16, 2004. Archived from the original on April 28, 2016 – via news.google.com.
  8. ^ a b c Weigel, David (November 2005). "When Patriots Dissent". Reason. Retrieved November 13, 2021.
  9. ^ Masse, Ryan (October 15, 2004). "Republican committee pulls ads for Michels". The Badger Herald. Retrieved January 11, 2020.
  10. ^ Zielinski, Graeme (October 1, 2004). "Feingold holds big lead over Michels, poll says". nl.newsbank.com. Archived from the original on June 9, 2011.
  11. ^ Zielinski, Graeme (October 30, 2004). "Feingold, Michels each say campaign is going his way". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Archived from the original on May 13, 2016 – via news.google.com/.
  12. ^ "The Final Predictions". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved May 2, 2021.
  13. ^ a b c d Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  14. ^ Zogby International
  15. ^ a b c d e Tarrance Group (R)
  16. ^ Zogby International
  17. ^ Zogby International
  18. ^ Zogby International
  19. ^ University of Wisconsin
  20. ^ Zogby International
  21. ^ Zogby International
  22. ^ Zogby International
  23. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  24. ^ St. Norbert College
  25. ^ Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV
  26. ^ Harris Interactive
  27. ^ University of Wisconsin
  28. ^ ABC News
  29. ^ a b c d University of Wisconsin
  30. ^ "2004 Fall General Election results" (PDF). Wisconsin Government Accountability Board. November 2, 2004. Archived from the original (PDF) on August 13, 2015. Retrieved March 30, 2015.
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Debates

Official campaign websites (archived)
Democrats

Republicans

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