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2006 United States Senate election in Ohio

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The 2006 United States Senate election in Ohio was held November 7, 2006. Incumbent Republican Mike DeWine ran for re-election, but was defeated by Democratic congressman Sherrod Brown.[1] As of 2024, this is the most recent time a Democratic Senate candidate in Ohio won a race by double digits. This was also the last time an incumbent Senator lost reelection in Ohio until Brown himself was defeated in 2024 by Bernie Moreno.

2006 United States Senate election in Ohio
← 2000 November 7, 2006 2012 →
Turnout53.25% (registered voters)
 
Nominee Sherrod Brown Mike DeWine
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 2,257,369 1,761,037
Percentage 56.16% 43.82%
Brown:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
DeWine:      50–60%      60–70%
U.S. senator before election

Mike DeWine
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Sherrod Brown
Democratic

To date, this is Mike DeWine's only general election loss of his political career. Following his defeat, DeWine would later serve as Ohio's State Attorney General from 2011 to 2019 and has been the state's Governor since 2019.

Background

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The incumbent Republican Senator R. Michael DeWine had approval ratings at 38%,[2] making him the second most unpopular U.S. Senator behind Pennsylvania Republican Rick Santorum, who was also up for reelection in 2006. Pre-election stories in the U.S. media suggested that the national Republican Party may have given up on saving Senator DeWine's Senate seat before election day.[citation needed] Sherrod Brown, former Ohio Secretary of State and U.S. Representative from Ohio's 13th district, easily won the Democratic nomination over Merrill Keiser Jr.

Republican primary

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Candidates

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  • Mike DeWine, incumbent U.S. Senator since 1995
  • David Smith, candidate for U.S. Representative from Ohio's 2nd congressional district in 2005
  • William G. Pierce, engineer

Campaign

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Both candidates campaigned as conservative alternatives to DeWine, citing DeWine's support for gun control measures and his role as one of the Republican members of the Gang of 14 which was a group of Republicans who compromised with Democrats in a dispute about judicial appointments.

Results

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Republican primary results[3]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mike DeWine (incumbent) 555,962 71.82%
Republican David Smith 112,427 14.52%
Republican William Pierce 105,734 13.66%
Total votes 774,123 100.00%

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Declared

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Withdrew

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Results

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Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Sherrod Brown 583,776 78.11%
Democratic Merrill Keiser Jr. 163,628 21.89%
Total votes 747,404 100.00%

General election

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Candidates

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Campaign

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The Republican Party, which was facing multiple challenges to their Senate majority, was initially determined to assist DeWine in his competitive race while the National Democratic party supported Brown in hopes of taking control of the Senate. John McClelland, a spokesman for the Ohio Republican Party said, "It's vitally important to the Republican Party as a whole, so I think that's why you see the president coming to Ohio to support Mike DeWine." Phil Singer, a spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee said, "Mike DeWine Senior is in for the fight of his life, make no mistake about it."[4]

On July 14, 2006, DeWine's campaign began airing TV commercials depicting a smoking World Trade Center. "The senator was notified... by a reporter at U.S. News & World Report that the image of the burning Twin Towers could not have depicted the actual event because the smoke was blowing the wrong way."[5][6] DeWine's campaign admitted that the video was actually a still photo of the World Trade Center with smoke digitally added.[5] He also was criticized for using an emotionally charged image to attack his challenger.[6]

Another of DeWine's ads suggested that opponent Sherrod Brown didn't pay his taxes for thirteen years. This claim led to the Associated Press reporting on October 19 that, "Several Ohio television stations have stopped airing a Republican ad because state documents contradict the ad's accusation that Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Sherrod Brown didn't pay an unemployment tax bill for 13 years." Brown produced a commercial citing these facts.[7] DeWine's ads were changed to state only that he had failed to pay his unemployment taxes until legal action was taken against him.

On October 16, 2006, The New York Times reported that top national Republicans were moving resources away from the Ohio Senate race, as they had determined that DeWine was likely to lose and were seeking to spend money on races where Republican candidates were seen as having a better chance of winning.[8]

Debates

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Fundraising

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During the election cycle, DeWine raised $14.9 million and spent $15.5 million.[9] Brown raised $8.9 million and spent $10.8 million.[10]

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[11] Lean D (flip) November 6, 2006
Sabato's Crystal Ball[12] Likely D (flip) November 6, 2006
Rothenberg Political Report[13] Likely D (flip) November 6, 2006
Real Clear Politics[14] Lean D (flip) November 6, 2006

Polling

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Source Date Sherrod
Brown (D) 		Mike
DeWine (R)
Zogby[15] October 31, 2005 40% 37%
Rasmussen[16] December 2, 2005 41% 43%
Rasmussen[17] January 7, 2006 40% 45%
Rasmussen[18] February 18, 2006 37% 46%
Rasmussen[19] March 31, 2006 42% 45%
Zogby/WSJ[20] March 31, 2006 46% 37%
Rasmussen[21] April 24, 2006 41% 43%
Mason-Dixon[22] April 26, 2006 36% 47%
Rasmussen[23] May 15, 2006 44% 41%
University of Cincinnati[24] May 25, 2006 42% 52%
Survey USA[25] June 13, 2006 48% 39%
Zogby/WSJ[20] June 21, 2006 47% 34%
Rasmussen[26] June 27, 2006 39% 46%
Columbus Dispatch[27] July 23, 2006 45% 37%
Zogby/WSJ[20] July 24, 2006 45% 37%
Rasmussen[28] August 1, 2006 44% 42%
SurveyUSA[29] August 5, 2006 49% 41%
Rasmussen[30] August 26, 2006 45% 42%
Zogby/WSJ[31] August 28, 2006 47% 39%
Gallup[32] September 5, 2006 46% 40%
Zogby/WSJ[31] September 11, 2006 45% 41%
Rasmussen[33] September 13, 2006 47% 41%
Quinnipiac[34] September 20, 2006 45% 44%
University of Cincinnati[35] September 20, 2006 51% 47%
SurveyUSA[36] September 21, 2006 52% 42%
Columbus Dispatch[37] September 24, 2006 47% 42%
Zogby/WSJ[31] September 28, 2006 45% 41%
University of Akron[38] September 29, 2006 42% 42%
Mason-Dixon[39] October 1, 2006 45% 43%
Reuters/Zogby[40] October 5, 2006 41% 41%
Rasmussen[41] October 5, 2006 49% 41%
SurveyUSA[42] October 12, 2006 54% 40%
Rasmussen[43] October 13, 2006 48% 42%
Quinnipiac[44] October 17, 2006 53% 41%
University of Cincinnati[45] October 17, 2006 52% 45%
CBS News/New York Times[46] October 17, 2006 49% 35%
Mason-Dixon/MSNBC[47] October 24, 2006 48% 40%
Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg[48] October 24, 2006 47% 39%
Rasmussen[49] October 26, 2006 53% 41%
SurveyUSA[50] October 26, 2006 57% 37%
Opinion Consultants[51] October 22–30, 2006 51% 44%
CNN/Opinion Research Corporation[52] October 31, 2006 54% 43%
Reuters/Zogby International[53] November 2, 2006 56% 42%
Rasmussen[54] November 4, 2006 54% 43%
Mason-Dixon/MSNBC-McClatchy[55] November 5, 2006 50% 44%
Columbus Dispatch[56] November 5, 2006 62% 38%
University of Cincinnati Ohio Poll[57] November 6, 2006 56% 44%
SurveyUSA[58] November 6, 2006 54% 42%

Results

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Brown was declared the winner right when the polls closed in Ohio at 7:30. DeWine had the second worst performance of a Republican incumbent in 2006; only Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum had a worse performance. While DeWine was able to win rural counties in western Ohio, Brown managed to win most eastern Ohio counties, especially in heavily populated areas. DeWine's narrow 2,000 vote victory in Hamilton County which is home to Cincinnati, came nowhere close to making a dent in Brown's lead. Brown would go on to be reelected to a second term in 2012, and a third term in 2018. Also in 2018, both Brown and DeWine were on the ballot but this time for different races; DeWine would be elected Governor of Ohio.

2006 United States Senate election in Ohio
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Sherrod Brown 2,257,369 56.16% +20.0
Republican Mike DeWine (incumbent) 1,761,037 43.82% −15.8
Independent Richard Duncan 830 0.02% N/A
Total votes 4,019,236 100.00% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican

By county

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County Sherrod Brown
Democratic 		Mike DeWine
Republican 		Richard Duncan
Independent 		Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # %
Adams 3,903 45.54% 4,667 54.46% 0 0.00% -764 -8.92% 8,570
Allen 16,597 45.95% 19,521 54.04% 5 0.01% -2,924 -8.09% 36,123
Ashland 8,890 46.31% 10,299 53.65% 9 0.04% -1,409 -7.34% 19,198
Ashtabula 21,151 61.79% 13,078 38.21% 1 0.00% 8,073 23.58% 34,230
Athens 13,988 70.55% 5,839 29.45% 0 0.00% 8,149 41.10% 19,827
Auglaize 6,845 40.28% 10,142 59.68% 8 0.04% -3,297 -19.40% 16,995
Belmont 15,490 65.76% 8,056 34.20% 10 0.04% 7,434 31.56% 23,556
Brown 6,850 48.57% 7,247 51.38% 7 0.05% -397 -2.81% 14,104
Butler 49,443 42.88% 65,854 57.11% 5 0.01% -16,411 -14.23% 115,302
Carroll 6,143 55.58% 4,908 44.40% 2 0.02% 1,235 11.18% 11,053
Champaign 6,809 47.26% 7,598 52.73% 2 0.01% -789 -5.47% 14,409
Clark 26,400 52.73% 23,656 47.25% 6 0.02% 2,744 5.48% 50,062
Clermont 25,333 39.00% 39,588 60.95% 34 0.05% -14,255 -21.95% 64,955
Clinton 5,005 39.43% 7,687 60.56% 1 0.01% -2,682 -21.13% 12,693
Columbiana 21,802 59.20% 15,025 40.80% 2 0.00% 6,777 18.40% 36,829
Coshocton 7,024 52.55% 6,340 47.43% 2 0.02% 684 5.12% 13,366
Crawford 8,227 49.31% 8,455 50.68% 1 0.01% -228 -1.37% 16,683
Cuyahoga 319,568 70.57% 133,235 29.42% 29 0.01% 186,333 41.15% 452,832
Darke 8,267 40.95% 11,911 59.00% 9 0.05% -3,644 -18.05% 20,187
Defiance 6,624 48.68% 6,977 51.28% 6 0.04% -353 -2.60% 13,607
Delaware 27,109 41.87% 37,624 58.11% 17 0.02% -10,515 -16.24% 64,750
Erie 19,372 63.74% 11,018 36.25% 1 0.01% 8,354 27.49% 30,391
Fairfield 25,283 46.99% 28,506 52.98% 12 0.03% -3,223 -5.99% 53,801
Fayette 3,793 44.91% 4,651 55.07% 2 0.02% -858 -10.16% 8,446
Franklin 217,961 58.57% 154,098 41.41% 51 0.02% 63,863 17.16% 372,110
Fulton 7,936 49.53% 8,079 50.43% 6 0.04% -143 -0.90% 16,021
Gallia 4,803 47.75% 5,255 52.25% 0 0.00% -452 -4.50% 10,058
Geauga 19,903 50.29% 19,653 49.66% 17 0.05% 250 0.63% 39,573
Greene 24,415 41.18% 34,797 58.69% 76 0.13% -10,382 -17.51% 59,288
Guernsey 7,334 55.40% 5,905 44.60% 0 0.00% 1,429 10.80% 13,239
Hamilton 142,134 49.63% 144,167 50.34% 96 0.03% -2,033 -0.71% 286,397
Hancock 10,498 40.97% 15,121 59.02% 3 0.01% -4,623 -18.05% 25,622
Hardin 4,779 49.86% 4,803 50.11% 2 0.03% -24 -0.25% 9,584
Harrison 3,530 59.02% 2,450 40.96% 1 0.02% 1,080 18.06% 5,981
Henry 5,354 47.12% 6,007 52.86% 2 0.02% -653 -5.74% 11,363
Highland 5,674 43.71% 7,297 56.21% 10 0.08% -1,623 -12.50% 12,981
Hocking 5,664 58.22% 4,062 41.75% 3 0.03% 1,602 16.47% 9,729
Holmes 2,810 34.89% 5,241 65.07% 4 0.04% -2,431 -30.18% 8,055
Huron 10,234 54.06% 8,694 45.93% 2 0.01% 1,540 8.13% 18,930
Jackson 5,453 53.00% 4,833 46.98% 2 0.02% 620 6.02% 10,288
Jefferson 15,673 61.08% 9,988 38.92% 0 0.00% 5,685 22.16% 25,661
Knox 9,641 46.62% 11,036 53.37% 1 0.01% -1,395 -6.75% 20,678
Lake 50,649 57.13% 37,988 42.85% 15 0.02% 12,661 14.28% 88,652
Lawrence 10,561 54.22% 8,916 45.78% 0 0.00% 1,645 8.44% 19,477
Licking 28,599 48.54% 30,312 51.44% 12 0.02% -1,713 -2.90% 58,923
Logan 6,909 42.62% 9,297 57.35% 4 0.03% -2,388 -14.73% 16,210
Lorain 67,429 66.39% 34,129 33.60% 5 0.01% 33,300 32.79% 101,563
Lucas 94,630 66.50% 47,659 33.49% 15 0.01% 46,971 33.01% 142,304
Madison 6,414 47.41% 7,110 52.55% 5 0.04% -696 -5.14% 13,529
Mahoning 69,664 73.47% 25,151 26.53% 0 0.00% 44,513 46.94% 94,815
Marion 11,078 51.28% 10,526 48.72% 0 0.00% 552 2.56% 21,604
Medina 36,386 55.48% 29,186 44.50% 11 0.02% 7,200 10.98% 65,583
Meigs 3,990 51.42% 3,769 48.58% 0 0.00% 221 2.84% 7,759
Mercer 5,413 34.85% 10,118 65.14% 1 0.01% -4,705 -30.29% 15,532
Miami 15,734 42.48% 21,299 57.50% 6 0.02% -5,565 -15.02% 37,039
Monroe 4,131 68.09% 1,935 31.89% 1 0.02% 2,196 36.20% 6,067
Montgomery 100,491 53.22% 88,322 46.77% 23 0.01% 12,169 6.45% 188,836
Morgan 2,955 53.88% 2,523 46.01% 6 0.11% 432 7.87% 5,484
Morrow 5,976 47.88% 6,499 52.07% 6 0.05% -523 -4.19% 12,481
Muskingum 15,664 55.55% 12,534 44.45% 2 0.00% 3,130 11.10% 28,200
Noble 2,611 50.50% 2,559 49.50% 0 0.00% 52 1.00% 5,170
Ottawa 10,548 60.20% 6,972 39.79% 1 0.01% 3,576 20.41% 17,521
Paulding 3,556 47.21% 3,976 52.78% 1 0.01% -420 -5.57% 7,533
Perry 6,627 59.23% 4,555 40.71% 7 0.06% 2,072 18.52% 11,189
Pickaway 8,858 49.44% 9,059 50.56% 0 0.00% -201 -1.12% 17,917
Pike 5,845 60.60% 3,798 39.38% 2 0.02% 2,047 21.22% 9,645
Portage 34,576 63.23% 20,075 36.71% 34 0.06% 14,501 26.52% 54,685
Preble 7,221 45.98% 8,436 53.72% 46 0.30% -1,215 -7.74% 15,703
Putnam 5,600 39.60% 8,539 60.38% 2 0.02% -2,939 -20.78% 14,141
Richland 24,431 53.24% 21,451 46.75% 7 0.01% 2,980 6.49% 45,889
Ross 13,061 55.42% 10,501 44.56% 4 0.02% 2,560 10.86% 23,566
Sandusky 12,899 56.37% 9,983 43.63% 0 0.00% 2,916 12.74% 22,882
Scioto 15,866 60.62% 10,308 39.38% 0 0.00% 5,558 21.24% 26,174
Seneca 10,742 53.48% 9,343 46.51% 1 0.01% 1,399 6.97% 20,086
Shelby 7,122 41.34% 10,101 58.64% 3 0.02% -2,979 -17.30% 17,226
Stark 79,900 57.37% 59,353 42.62% 11 0.01% 20,547 14.75% 139,264
Summit 126,776 63.57% 72,559 36.39% 81 0.04% 54,217 27.18% 199,416
Trumbull 58,586 73.12% 21,520 26.86% 18 0.02% 37,066 46.26% 80,124
Tuscarawas 17,360 55.31% 14,024 44.68% 1 0.01% 3,336 10.63% 31,385
Union 6,881 40.85% 9,950 59.07% 12 0.08% -3,069 -18.22% 16,843
Van Wert 4,177 40.09% 6,239 59.88% 4 0.03% -2,062 -19.79% 10,420
Vinton 2,484 55.38% 2,001 44.62% 0 0.00% 483 10.76% 4,485
Warren 25,102 36.54% 43,588 63.45% 8 0.01% -18,486 -26.91% 68,698
Washington 11,631 51.08% 11,140 48.92% 0 0.00% 491 2.16% 22,771
Wayne 18,299 47.79% 19,985 52.19% 9 0.02% -1,686 -4.40% 38,293
Williams 6,438 49.57% 6,543 50.38% 7 0.05% -105 -0.81% 12,988
Wood 25,875 56.85% 19,637 43.14% 3 0.01% 6,238 13.71% 45,515
Wyandot 3,912 48.17% 4,201 51.72% 9 0.11% -289 -3.55% 8,122
Totals 2,257,369 56.16% 1,761,037 43.82% 830 0.02% 496,332 12.34% 4,019,236

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

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Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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By congressional district

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Sherrod Brown won 14 of 18 congressional districts, including seven districts which elected Republicans to the House.[59]

District Brown DeWine Representative
1st 51.8% 48.2% Steve Chabot
2nd 43.2% 56.8%
Jean Schmidt
3rd 49.5% 50.5% Mike Turner
4th 46.8% 53.2% Mike Oxley (109th Congress)
Jim Jordan (110th Congress)
5th 50.9% 49.1% Paul Gillmor
6th 60.0% 40.0% Ted Strickland (109th Congress)
Charlie Wilson (110th Congress)
7th 51.4% 48.6% Dave Hobson
8th 42.0% 56.0% John Boehner
9th 65.7% 34.3% Marcy Kaptur
10th 65.5% 34.5% Dennis Kucinich
11th 82.2% 17.8% Stephanie Tubbs Jones
12th 52.5% 47.5% Pat Tiberi
13th 63.9% 36.1% Sherrod Brown (109th Congress)
Betty Sutton (110th Congress)
14th 56.2% 43.8% Steve LaTourette
15th 55.0% 45.0% Deborah Pryce
16th 54.3% 45.7% Ralph Regula
17th 72.4% 27.6% Tim Ryan
18th 53.9% 46.1% Bob Ney (109th Congress)
Zack Space (110th Congress)

See also

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References

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  1. ^ "Democrats Score First Senate Win". CBS News. November 7, 2006. Archived from the original on May 24, 2011. Retrieved November 8, 2006.
  2. ^ "www.surveyusa.com". Archived from the original on December 1, 2016. Retrieved October 28, 2006.
  3. ^ "2006 Election Results". June 13, 2006. Archived from the original on June 13, 2006. Retrieved February 17, 2021.
  4. ^ Collins, Michael (February 23, 2006). "Bush visit all politics this time". The Kentucky Post. Covington, Kentucky: E. W. Scripps Company. Archived from the original on August 28, 2006.
  5. ^ a b Nation & World: DeWine blunder adds fuel to controversial September 11 ad - U.S. News & World Report Archived October 12, 2008, at the Wayback Machine
  6. ^ a b "Washington Post".[dead link‍]
  7. ^ "Sherrod Brown". Archived from the original on March 6, 2008. Retrieved March 14, 2010.
  8. ^ Adam Nagourney, "In Final Weeks, G.O.P. Focuses on Best Bets", The New York Times, October 16, 2006.
  9. ^ "Sen. Mike DeWine: Campaign Finance/Money - Summary - Senator 2006 | OpenSecrets". www.opensecrets.org. Retrieved September 27, 2016.
  10. ^ "Rep. Sherrod Brown: Campaign Finance/Money - Summary - Representative 2006 | OpenSecrets". www.opensecrets.org. Retrieved September 27, 2016.
  11. ^ "2006 Senate Race Ratings for November 6, 2006" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Archived from the original (PDF) on June 5, 2008. Retrieved September 30, 2021.
  12. ^ "Election Eve 2006: THE FINAL PREDICTIONS". Sabato's Crystal Ball. November 6, 2006. Retrieved June 25, 2021.
  13. ^ "2006 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved June 25, 2021.
  14. ^ "Election 2006". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved June 25, 2021.
  15. ^ Zogby
  16. ^ Rasmussen
  17. ^ Rasmussen
  18. ^ Rasmussen
  19. ^ Rasmussen
  20. ^ a b c Zogby/WSJ
  21. ^ Rasmussen
  22. ^ Mason-Dixon
  23. ^ Rasmussen
  24. ^ University of Cincinnati
  25. ^ Survey USA
  26. ^ Rasmussen
  27. ^ Columbus Dispatch
  28. ^ Rasmussen
  29. ^ SurveyUSA
  30. ^ Rasmussen
  31. ^ a b c Zogby/WSJ
  32. ^ Gallup
  33. ^ Rasmussen
  34. ^ Quinnipiac
  35. ^ University of Cincinnati
  36. ^ SurveyUSA
  37. ^ Columbus Dispatch
  38. ^ University of Akron
  39. ^ Mason-Dixon
  40. ^ Reuters/Zogby
  41. ^ Rasmussen
  42. ^ SurveyUSA
  43. ^ Rasmussen
  44. ^ Quinnipiac
  45. ^ University of Cincinnati
  46. ^ CBS News/New York Times
  47. ^ Mason-Dixon/MSNBC
  48. ^ Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg
  49. ^ Rasmussen
  50. ^ SurveyUSA
  51. ^ Opinion Consultants
  52. ^ CNN/Opinion Research Corporation
  53. ^ Reuters/Zogby International
  54. ^ Rasmussen
  55. ^ Mason-Dixon/MSNBC-McClatchy
  56. ^ Columbus Dispatch
  57. ^ University of Cincinnati Ohio Poll
  58. ^ SurveyUSA
  59. ^ "Twitter".
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