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2010 United States Senate election in Missouri

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The 2010 United States Senate election in Missouri took place on November 2, 2010, alongside 36 other elections to the United States Senate in other states as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Primary elections were held on August 3, 2010. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Kit Bond decided to retire instead of seeking a fifth term. Republican nominee Roy Blunt won the open seat.[1]

2010 United States Senate election in Missouri
← 2004 November 2, 2010 2016 →
 
Nominee Roy Blunt Robin Carnahan
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,054,160 789,736
Percentage 54.23% 40.63%
County results

Blunt:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

Carnahan:      50–60%      70–80%
U.S. senator before election

Kit Bond
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Roy Blunt
Republican

Republican primary

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Candidates

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  • Roy Blunt, U.S. Representative since 1997
  • Davis Conway
  • Tony Laszacs
  • Hector Maldonado, sales representative
  • Kristi Nichols, sales manager, activist, perennial candidate
  • R.L. Praprotnik
  • Chuck Purgason, State Senator
  • Deborah Solomon
  • Mike Vontz

Polling

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Poll source Dates administered Roy Blunt Chuck Purgason Undecided
Public Policy Polling[2] November 13–15, 2009 53% 16% 31%
Public Policy Polling[3] March 27–28, 2010 48% 18% 34%

Results

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Republican primary results[4]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Roy Blunt 411,040 70.9%
Republican Chuck Purgason 75,663 13.1%
Republican Kristi Nichols 40,744 7.0%
Republican Deborah Solomon 15,099 2.6%
Republican Hector Maldonado 8,731 1.5%
Republican Davis Conway 8,525 1.5%
Republican R.L. Praprotnik 8,047 1.4%
Republican Tony Laszacs 6,309 1.1%
Republican Mike Vontz 5,190 0.9%
Total votes 579,348 100.00%

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Results

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Democratic primary results[4]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Robin Carnahan 266,349 83.9%
Democratic Richard Charles Tolbert 33,731 10.6%
Democratic Francis Vangeli 17,511 5.5%
Total votes 317,591 100.00%

Other primaries

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Constitution

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Candidates

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Declared
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  • Jerry Beck
  • Joe Martellaro
  • Mike Simmons
Constitution Party primary results[4]
Party Candidate Votes %
Constitution Jerry Beck 819 43.5%
Constitution Mike Simmons 554 29.4%
Constitution Joe Martello 511 27.1%
Total votes 1,884 100.00%

Libertarian

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Candidates

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Declared
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  • Jonathan Dine
  • Cisse Spragins
Libertarian primary results[4]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Jonathan Dine 2,069 58.6%
Libertarian Cisse Spragins 1,460 41.4%
Total votes 3,529 100.00%

General election

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Candidates

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Campaign

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Carnahan and national Democrats heavily criticized Blunt for his support of bailouts, calling him "Bailout Blunt."[5] Blunt criticized her for supporting President Obama's stimulus package, the cap-and-trade energy bill, and the Affordable Care Act.[6]

Carnahan was endorsed by the Kansas City Star,[7] the St. Louis Post-Dispatch,[8] and the St. Louis American.[9]

Blunt was endorsed by the Quincy Herald-Whig[10] and the St. Joseph News-Press.[11]

Debates

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[15] Lean R October 26, 2010
Rothenberg[16] Lean R October 22, 2010
RealClearPolitics[17] Likely R October 26, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball[18] Likely R October 21, 2010
CQ Politics[19] Lean R October 26, 2010

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Roy Blunt (R) Robin Carnahan (D) Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[20] January 10–11, 2009 867 ± 3.3% 44% 45% –– 11%
Wilson Strategies (R)[21] March 7–9, 2009 600 ± 4.0% 44% 47% –– 9%
Democracy Corps (D)[22] April 28–30, 2009 800 ± 3.5% 44% 53% –– 3%
Momentum Analysis (D)[23] September 19, 2009 802 ± 3.5% 45% 48% –– 7%
Rasmussen Reports[24] September 21, 2009 500 ± 4.5% 46% 46% 2% 5%
Public Policy Polling[25] November 13–15, 2009 763 ± 3.6% 42% 43% –– 15%
Rasmussen Reports[26] December 15, 2009 500 ± 4.5% 44% 46% 4% 6%
YouGovPolimetrix[27] January 6–11, 2010 500 –– 39% 43% –– 19%
Rasmussen Reports[28] January 19, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 49% 43% 3% 5%
Rasmussen Reports[29] February 10, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 49% 42% 3% 6%
Rasmussen Reports[30] March 9, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 47% 41% 4% 8%
Public Policy Polling[31] March 27–28, 2010 495 ± 4.4% 45% 41% –– 13%
Rasmussen Reports[32] April 6, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 48% 42% 3% 7%
Rasmussen Reports[33] May 3, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 50% 42% 4% 4%
Rasmussen Reports[34] June 2, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 45% 44% 4% 6%
Rasmussen Reports[35] June 28, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 48% 43% 3% 6%
Rasmussen Reports[36] July 13, 2010 750 ± 4.0% 47% 45% 2% 6%
Mason Dixon[37] July 19–21, 2010 625 ± 4.0% 48% 42% –– 10%
Rasmussen Reports[38] July 27, 2010 750 ± 4.0% 49% 43% 4% 4%
Rasmussen Reports[38] August 10, 2010 750 ± 4.0% 50% 43% 3% 4%
Public Policy Polling[39] August 14–15, 2010 –– ± 3.73% 45% 38% 8% 9%
Rasmussen Reports[40] August 23, 2010 750 ± 4.0% 51% 40% 5% 4%
Rasmussen Reports[41] September 7, 2010 750 ± 4.0% 53% 43% 2% 2%
Rasmussen Reports[42] September 21, 2010 750 ± 4.0% 52% 44% 2% 3%
Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research[43] October 2, 2010 1,000 ± 3.0% 50% 42% 5% 3%
CNN/Time/Opinion Research[44] October 1–5, 2010 1,398 ± 2.5% 53% 40% 4% ––
Rasmussen Reports[38] October 5, 2010 750 ± 4.0% 51% 43% 3% 2%
Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research[43] October 16, 2010 1,000 ± 3.0% 49% 43% 5% 3%
Public Policy Polling[45] October 17–18, 2010 646 ± 3.9% 46% 41% 6% 7%
Rasmussen Reports[38] October 19, 2010 750 ± 4.0% 52% 43% 4% 3%
Mason-Dixon[46] October 18–20, 2010 625 ± 4.0% 49% 40% 3% 8%
KSN3/Missouri State University[47] October 20–27, 2010 821 ± 3.8% 54% 41% 3% 2%

Fundraising

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Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt
Roy Blunt (R) $8,203,670 $4,537,049 $4,003,030 $0
Robin Carnahan (D) $7,297,929 $3,658,278 $3,639,651 $0
Source: Federal Election Commission[48]

Results

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United States Senate election in Missouri, 2010[49]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Roy Blunt 1,054,160 54.23% −1.86%
Democratic Robin Carnahan 789,736 40.63% −2.17%
Libertarian Jonathan Dine 58,663 3.02% +2.29%
Constitution Jerry Beck 41,309 2.12% +1.73%
Write-in 31 0.00% N/A
Total votes 1,943,899 100.0%
Republican hold

See also

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References

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  1. ^ Missouri election results 2010: Robin Carnahan defeated by Roy Blunt, Washington Post, 2 November 2010
  2. ^ Public Policy Polling
  3. ^ Public Policy Polling
  4. ^ a b c d "Missouri Senate Primary results". Missouri SOS. August 3, 2010. Archived from the original on October 2, 2012. Retrieved August 3, 2010.
  5. ^ Congressman 'Bailout' Blunt Tries to Redefine His Role in the $700 Billion Bailout | Fired Up! Missouri Archived September 16, 2010, at the Wayback Machine
  6. ^ Blunt's 2nd ad attacks Carnahan on Obama event
  7. ^ Recommendations for Missouri’s top races, editorial board, Kansas City Star, October 24, 2010
  8. ^ Carnahan for Senate: Part of the solution, not the problem, editorial board, St. Louis Post-Dispatch, October 22, 2010
  9. ^ American endorses Robin Carnahan and Barbara Fraser[permanent dead link‍], editorial board, St. Louis American, October 21, 2010
  10. ^ Roy Blunt for Senate Archived October 23, 2010, at the Wayback Machine
  11. ^ Roy Blunt for Senate Archived October 23, 2010, at the Wayback Machine
  12. ^ [1][dead link‍]
  13. ^ Senate candidate heavyweights debate at lake - Camdenton, MO - Serving Missouri's Lake of the Ozarks region including Osage Beach, Camdenton, Lake Ozark, Eldon and Sunrise Bea... Archived July 13, 2011, at the Wayback Machine
  14. ^ Blunt and Carnahan Fire Up Supporters – KTVI Archived November 7, 2010, at the Wayback Machine
  15. ^ "Senate". Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
  16. ^ "Senate Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
  17. ^ "Battle for the Senate". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
  18. ^ "2010 Senate Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
  19. ^ "Race Ratings Chart: Senate". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
  20. ^ Public Policy Polling
  21. ^ Wilson Strategies (R)
  22. ^ Democracy Corps (D)
  23. ^ Momentum Analysis (D)
  24. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  25. ^ Public Policy Polling
  26. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  27. ^ YouGovPolimetrix
  28. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  29. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  30. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  31. ^ Public Policy Polling
  32. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  33. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  34. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  35. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  36. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  37. ^ Mason Dixon
  38. ^ a b c d Rasmussen Reports
  39. ^ Public Policy Polling
  40. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  41. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  42. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  43. ^ a b Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research
  44. ^ CNN/Time/Opinion Research
  45. ^ Public Policy Polling
  46. ^ Mason-Dixon
  47. ^ KSN3/Missouri State University
  48. ^ "2010 House and Senate Campaign Finance for Missouri". fec.gov. Retrieved August 19, 2010.[permanent dead link‍]
  49. ^ "Official Election Returns 2010" (PDF). Missouri Secretary of State.
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Official campaign websites

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