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2006 United States Senate election in Minnesota

(Redirected from United States Senate election in Minnesota, 2006)

The 2006 United States Senate election in Minnesota took place on November 7, 2006. Incumbent Senator Mark Dayton announced in February 2005 that he would retire instead of seeking a second term. Fellow Democrat Amy Klobuchar won the open seat by 20.2 percentage points. Primary elections took place on September 12, 2006.

2006 United States Senate election in Minnesota
← 2000 November 7, 2006 2012 →
 
Nominee Amy Klobuchar Mark Kennedy
Party Democratic (DFL) Republican
Popular vote 1,278,849 835,653
Percentage 58.06% 37.94%
Klobuchar:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Kennedy:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%      No votes
U.S. senator before election

Mark Dayton
Democratic (DFL)

Elected U.S. Senator

Amy Klobuchar
Democratic (DFL)

DFL primary

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Candidates

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  • Amy Klobuchar, Hennepin County Attorney
  • Darryl Stanton, businessman

Withdrew

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  • Patty Wetterling, children's safety advocate and candidate for U.S. House in 2004

Campaign

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Klobuchar gained the early endorsement of the majority of DFL state legislators in Minnesota. A poll taken of DFL state delegates showed Klobuchar beating her then closest opponent, Patty Wetterling, 66% to 15%. As of June 30, 2005, Klobuchar had more cash on hand than any other candidate, nearly $1,100,000.

Klobuchar was endorsed by EMILY's List on September 29, 2005. On January 20, 2006, Wetterling dropped out of the race and endorsed Klobuchar.[1]

Former Senate candidate and prominent lawyer Mike Ciresi, who was widely seen as the only other serious potential DFL candidate, indicated on February 7, 2006, that he would not enter the race. That removal of her most significant potential competitor for the DFL nomination was viewed as an important boost for Klobuchar.[2]

The only other serious candidate for the DFL endorsement was veterinarian Ford Bell. Bell, a staunch liberal, ran on a platform of implementing single-payer healthcare and immediate withdrawal from Iraq.[3] Klobuchar won the official DFL endorsement on June 9, 2006.[4] Bell dropped out of the race on July 10, citing inability to compete financially, and also endorsed Klobuchar.[3]

Results

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Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party primary results[5]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic (DFL) Amy Klobuchar 294,671 92.51
Democratic (DFL) Darryl Stanton 23,872 7.49
Total votes 318,543 100.00

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Campaign

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Kennedy had faced potential challenges from former U.S. Senator Rod Grams, as well as U.S. Representative Gil Gutknecht, but both men were persuaded by national GOP leaders to run for the House instead. (Grams lost to Representative Jim Oberstar, while Gutknecht lost his reelection bid to Tim Walz.)

Results

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Republican primary results[6]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mark Kennedy 147,091 90.21
Republican John Uldrich 10,025 6.15
Republican Harold Shudlick 5,941 3.64
Total votes 163,057 100.00

Independence primary

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Candidates

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  • Miles W. Collins
  • Robert Fitzgerald, public-access television executive
  • Stephen Williams, salesman

Results

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Independence primary results[5]
Party Candidate Votes %
Independence Robert Fitzgerald 5,520 51.61
Independence Miles W. Collins 2,600 24.31
Independence Stephen Williams 2,575 24.08
Total votes 10,695 100.00

General election

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Candidates

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Major

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Minor

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  • Michael Cavlan (G), nurse and independent journalist
  • Peter Idusogie (I), businessman (write-in)
  • Ben Powers (C), quality control technician

Campaign

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Klobuchar with Barack Obama and Tim Walz
 
Major party candidates: Kennedy, Klobuchar, and Fitzgerald
 
Candidates Mark Kennedy, Amy Klobuchar, and Robert Fitzgerald debated on November 5, 2006.

Kennedy's routine support of President George W. Bush in House votes appeared to be a central issue for Democrats in the campaign. In June 2006, allegations were made that many references to and photos of Bush had been removed from Kennedy's official U.S. House website. In rebuttal, Republicans said that there were 72 references to Bush on the website and that the changes noted by critics had been made some time ago, as part of the normal updating process.[7] Ben Powers was the only ballot-qualified candidate not invited to appear on Minnesota Public Television's Almanac program, despite Powers's offer to fill the space left unfilled by Klobuchar's decision not to appear with Kennedy and Fitzgerald on the program. Green candidate Michael Cavlan appeared on the program twice during the campaign as a special guest.

Debates

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[8] Likely D November 6, 2006
Sabato's Crystal Ball[9] Likely D November 6, 2006
Rothenberg Political Report[10] Safe D November 6, 2006
Real Clear Politics[11] Lean D November 6, 2006

Polling

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After the release of the Star Tribune poll[12] on September 17, 2006, showing Klobuchar ahead by 24%, Kennedy's campaign issued a statement[13] from Joe Pally, the campaign's communications director. He claimed that the margin was exaggerated because of bias by the Star Tribune and that the poll was "clearly more about discouraging Kennedy supporters than on reflecting the true status of one of the most closely contested Senate races in the country."[14] This press release came in the wake of news that the Republican party was scaling back funding for Kennedy's election campaign to shore up campaigns in states seen as winnable. Kennedy's campaign frequently accused the Star Tribune of bias in favor of Klobuchar, whose father was an editorial columnist and sportswriter for the paper until his retirement. A subsequent poll by Rasmussen Reports showed a similar lead for Klobuchar, and the St. Paul Pioneer Press also showed Klobuchar with a 15% lead in September. Klobuchar won the November 7 election by more than 20 percentage points.

Source Date Klobuchar (DFL) Kennedy (R) Fitzgerald (IPM)
Rasmussen[15] December 23, 2005 48% 41%
Rasmussen[16] January 28, 2006 43% 42%
Rasmussen[17] February 28, 2006 45% 42%
Zogby/WSJ[18] March 31, 2006 49% 41%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Poll[19] May 9, 2006 50% 42%
Rasmussen[20] May 10, 2006 45% 43%
Zogby/WSJ[18] June 21, 2006 49% 41%
Rasmussen[21] June 30, 2006 47% 44%
Minneapolis-St. Paul Star Tribune Minnesota Poll[22] July 16, 2006 50% 31%
Zogby/WSJ[18] July 24, 2006 49% 43%
Bennett, Petts, and Blumenthal (D)[23] July 24, 2006 48% 30%
SurveyUSA[24] July 24, 2006 47% 42% 8%
Rasmussen[25] August 7, 2006 50% 38% 5%
Zogby/WSJ[26] August 28, 2006 50% 42%
Rasmussen[27] August 28, 2006 47% 40% 8%
Gallup[28] September 5, 2006 50% 40%
Zogby/WSJ[26] September 11, 2006 49% 40%
Minneapolis-St. Paul Star Tribune Minnesota Poll[29] September 17, 2006 56% 32% 3%
University of Minnesota Humphrey Institute[30] September 21, 2006 52% 36% 7%
Minnesota Public Radio/Pioneer Press/Mason-Dixon[31] September 25, 2006 52% 37% 1%
SurveyUSA[32] September 28, 2006 51% 43% 2%
Rasmussen[33] October 4, 2006 53% 36% 6%
Minneapolis-St. Paul Star Tribune Minnesota Poll[34] October 15, 2006 55% 34% 3%
Zogby/WSJ[35] October 19, 2006 50% 43%
SurveyUSA[36] October 24, 2006 55% 39% 3%
Rasmussen[37] October 25, 2006 54% 39%
University of Minnesota Humphrey Institute[38] November 1, 2006 55% 33% 3%
Minneapolis-St. Paul Star Tribune Minnesota Poll[39] November 4, 2006 54% 34% 4%
SurveyUSA[40] November 6, 2006 56% 40% 2%

Endorsements

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Amy Klobuchar (DFL)
Individuals

Organizations

Results

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The race was, as expected, not close, with Klobuchar winning decisively. She did well in major cities, such as Minneapolis and St. Paul, while Kennedy did well only in smaller, less populated counties. The turnout was high, although not unusual for Minnesota, one of the highest voter turnout states. Official turnout came in at 70.64%.

General election results
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic (DFL) Amy Klobuchar 1,278,849 58.06% +9.23%
Republican Mark Kennedy 835,653 37.94% −5.35%
Independence Robert Fitzgerald 71,194 3.23% −2.58%
Green Michael Cavlan 10,714 0.49% n/a
Constitution Ben Powers 5,408 0.25% +0.15%
Write-ins 954
Majority 443,196 20.2%
Turnout 2,202,772 70.64%
Democratic (DFL) hold Swing

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

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By congressional district

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Klobuchar won all 8 congressional districts, including three that elected Republicans.[43]

District Klobuchar Kennedy Representative
1st 55% 40% Gil Gutknecht (109th Congress)
Tim Walz (110th Congress)
2nd 55% 42% John Kline
3rd 55% 42% Jim Ramstad
4th 64% 32% Betty McCollum
5th 73% 22% Martin Olav Sabo (109th Congress)
Keith Ellison (110th Congress)
6th 50% 47% Mark Kennedy (109th Congress)
Michele Bachmann (110th Congress)
7th 53% 43% Collin Peterson
8th 60% 36% Jim Oberstar

See also

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References

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  1. ^ "The latest from the StarTribune". Star Tribune. Archived from the original on October 22, 2007.
  2. ^ "The Fix -- Chris Cillizza's Politics Blog on washingtonpost.com". blog.washingtonpost.com. Archived from the original on February 24, 2006. Retrieved January 11, 2022.
  3. ^ a b Scheck, Tom (July 11, 2006). "Ford Bell drops out of U.S. Senate race". MPR News. Retrieved April 30, 2021.
  4. ^ Zdechlik, Mark; Bakst, Brian (June 9, 2006). "Klobuchar wins DFL Senate endorsement". MPR News. Associated Press. Retrieved April 30, 2021.
  5. ^ a b "electionresults.sos.state.mn.us". Archived from the original on October 16, 2020. Retrieved May 21, 2011.
  6. ^ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on January 12, 2011. Retrieved May 21, 2011.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  7. ^ The latest from the StarTribune[permanent dead link‍]
  8. ^ "2006 Senate Race Ratings for November 6, 2006" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Archived from the original (PDF) on June 5, 2008. Retrieved September 30, 2021.
  9. ^ "Election Eve 2006: THE FINAL PREDICTIONS". Sabato's Crystal Ball. November 6, 2006. Retrieved June 25, 2021.
  10. ^ "2006 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved June 25, 2021.
  11. ^ "Election 2006". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved June 25, 2021.
  12. ^ Minnesota Poll
  13. ^ Mark Kennedy for US Senate
  14. ^ "Mark Kennedy for Senate". Archived from the original on October 4, 2006.
  15. ^ Rasmussen Archived January 6, 2006, at the Wayback Machine
  16. ^ Rasmussen
  17. ^ Rasmussen
  18. ^ a b c Zogby/WSJ
  19. ^ Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Poll
  20. ^ Rasmussen
  21. ^ Rasmussen
  22. ^ Minneapolis-St. Paul Star Tribune Minnesota Poll [permanent dead link‍]
  23. ^ Bennett, Petts, and Blumenthal (D)
  24. ^ SurveyUSA
  25. ^ Rasmussen Archived August 30, 2006, at the Wayback Machine
  26. ^ a b Zogby/WSJ
  27. ^ Rasmussen
  28. ^ Gallup
  29. ^ Minneapolis-St. Paul Star Tribune Minnesota Poll
  30. ^ University of Minnesota Humphrey Institute
  31. ^ Minnesota Public Radio/Pioneer Press/Mason-Dixon
  32. ^ SurveyUSA
  33. ^ Rasmussen
  34. ^ Minneapolis-St. Paul Star Tribune Minnesota Poll
  35. ^ Zogby/WSJ
  36. ^ SurveyUSA
  37. ^ Rasmussen
  38. ^ University of Minnesota Humphrey Institute
  39. ^ Minneapolis-St. Paul Star Tribune Minnesota Poll [permanent dead link‍]
  40. ^ SurveyUSA
  41. ^ "Amy Klobuchar (Senate -MN) | WesPAC". November 4, 2006. Archived from the original on November 4, 2006. Retrieved April 8, 2023.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
  42. ^ "Endorsements". Archived from the original on October 6, 2006.
  43. ^ https://x.com/JMilesColeman/status/1146892410649305096
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