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Quality start

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In baseball, a quality start (QS) is a statistic for a starting pitcher defined as a game in which the pitcher completes at least six innings and permits no more than three earned runs. The quality start was developed by sportswriter John Lowe in 1985 while writing for The Philadelphia Inquirer.[1] He wrote that it "shows exactly how many times a baseball pitcher has done his job."[2]

Don Sutton registered 483 quality starts during his Major League Baseball career.

The quality start was created to be an accurate measure of a starting pitcher's performance.[2] However, the implied earned run average (ERA) of a minimum quality start has been criticized, with Tim McCarver noting "three runs for six innings ... means the ERA would be 4.50 ... Rubbish."[3]

MLB quality start leaders

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This section lists quality start leaders in Major League Baseball (MLB). ESPN.com includes quality starts in its "Stat Leaders" section,[4] and terms a loss suffered by a pitcher in a quality start as a "tough loss" and a win earned by a pitcher in a non-quality start a "cheap win".[5] Baseball-Reference.com also includes quality starts, tough losses, and cheap wins for individual pitchers under Pitching-Advanced Stats-Starting Pitching. However, quality starts are absent from statistics provided on other baseball reference sites, such as Baseball Almanac.[6]

Career

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Career quality starts[citation needed]
Player QS W L W-L% ERA CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP SB CS
Don Sutton† 483 282 98 0.742 1.71 164 58 3786.1 2728 832 718 201 812 2580 0.93 244 100
Nolan Ryan† 481 283 107 0.726 1.61 199 61 3805.1 2234 835 679 120 1683 4145 1.03 437 169
Greg Maddux† 480 291 88 0.768 1.75 104 34 3581.2 2763 827 698 157 599 2425 0.94 313 133
Roger Clemens 465 308 65 0.826 1.54 106 46 3514.2 2441 712 601 149 966 3378 0.97 268 144
Tom Seaver† 454 273 96 0.740 1.70 212 61 3697.1 2591 810 700 189 949 2842 0.96 268 123
Gaylord Perry† 453 279 102 0.732 1.63 271 53 3807.1 2855 868 688 165 854 2483 0.97 143 139
Steve Carlton† 447 288 100 0.742 1.67 228 55 3648 2669 833 676 171 1119 2899 1.04 184 151
Phil Niekro† 442 260 101 0.720 1.78 211 45 3554.1 2712 871 702 205 1016 2218 1.05 236 136
Tom Glavine† 436 263 66 0.799 1.88 54 25 3133 2461 757 653 167 876 1844 1.07 139 103
Tommy John 431 258 88 0.746 1.72 151 46 3374 2781 794 644 141 749 1597 1.05 136 111
Bert Blyleven† 429 251 99 0.717 1.73 205 60 3426.2 2648 797 660 176 824 2616 1.01 253 139

† denotes that the player is an inductee of the National Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, New York

Single season

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Single-season quality starts[citation needed]
Player Year QS W L ND W-L% ERA GS CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP
Jack Chesbro† 1904 44 38 6 0 0.864 1.36 44 43 6 398 270 87 60 4 74 214 0.86
Pete Alexander† 1916 40 33 7 0 0.825 1.11 40 38 16 356 273 60 44 3 39 154 0.88
Pete Alexander† 1915 39 29 7 3 0.806 1.12 39 33 11 346.2 224 72 43 3 57 223 0.81
Pete Alexander† 1917 39 30 8 1 0.789 1.32 39 32 8 347 282 76 51 3 46 183 0.95
Wilbur Wood 1971 37 21 10 6 0.677 1.46 37 22 7 307.1 233 70 50 17 56 193 0.94
Vic Willis† 1902 37 25 11 1 0.694 1.46 37 36 4 326.2 267 83 53 4 80 184 1.06
Rube Waddell† 1904 37 25 12 0 0.676 1.10 37 35 8 343.2 252 70 42 1 75 299 0.95
Cy Young† 1904 36 25 10 1 0.714 1.28 34 34 10 324.2 244 59 46 4 24 174 0.83
Sandy Koufax† 1966 36 27 6 3 0.818 1.35 36 27 5 307.1 215 53 46 18 65 308 0.91
Walter Johnson† 1915 36 25 11 0 0.694 1.28 36 33 7 309 230 67 44 0 51 180 0.91
Bob Feller† 1946 36 26 9 1 0.743 1.27 36 33 10 318.2 211 56 45 6 126 294 1.06

† denotes that the player is an inductee of the National Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, New York

Other notable accomplishments

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As of the end of the 2014 season, the highest "quality start" percentage for a given season in the live-ball era (post-1920) was recorded by Greg Maddux, who had 24 of them in 25 games in 1994. Dwight Gooden was 33-for-35 in 1985.

Since 1913, numerous pitchers have thrown quality starts of over twenty games, with ten pitchers throwing at least 21 quality starts from 1913 to 2016, albeit with exceptions. Walter Johnson (September 14, 1914 to July 6, 1915) and Eddie Cicotte (September 15, 1916 to July 25, 1917) each had over 24 quality starts, but they also made spot appearances in relief for their teams (i.e. not starting 24 in a row). Bob Gibson, however, set a new high mark with 26 quality starts in a row (no relief appearances) from September 12, 1967 to July 30, 1968.[7] Jacob deGrom tied Gibson by throwing 26 quality starts from May 18, 2018 to April 3, 2019, with 24 of them being done in the same season that set a record for most quality starts in a season previously set by Gibson (22) and Chris Carpenter (22, 2005).[8] In 2022, American League, Framber Valdez pitched 25 quality starts in a row from April 25 to September 18 of the 2022 season. It set a new record for most consecutive quality starts in one season along with the most by a left-handed pitcher.[9]

From 1871 to the end of the 2020 MLB season, the overall leaders by percentage (min. 100 starts):[10]

  1. Jacob deGrom (136 of 183, 74.3%)
  2. Clayton Kershaw (260 of 354, 73.4%)
  3. Jeff Tesreau (148 of 207, 71.5%)
  4. Babe Ruth (105 of 147, 71.4%)
  5. Tom Seaver (454 of 647, 70.2%)
  6. Chris Sale (162 of 232, 69.8%)
  7. Mel Stottlemyre (247 of 356, 69.4%)
  8. Ernie Shore (84 of 121, 69.4%)
  9. Pete Schneider (109 of 157, 69.4%)
  10. Gerrit Cole (139 of 204, 68.1%)

Criticisms

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High ERA

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An early criticism of the statistic, made by Moss Klein, writing in The Sporting News, is that a pitcher could conceivably meet the minimum requirements for a quality start and record a 4.50 ERA, which is generally seen as undesirable.[11][12] Bill James addressed this in his 1987 Baseball Abstract, saying the hypothetical example (a pitcher going exactly 6 innings and allowing exactly 3 runs) was extremely rare among starts recorded as quality starts, and that he doubted any pitchers had an ERA over 3.20 in their quality starts. This was later confirmed through computer analysis of all quality starts recorded from 1984 to 1991, which found that the average ERA in quality starts during that time period was 1.91.[13] However, this criticism has persisted; in 2022, John Laghezza of The Athletic deemed the quality start "garbage", while proposing alternatives (the "money start" and the "plus start").[14]

Complete games

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Another criticism against the statistic is that it is not beneficial for pitchers who pitch many innings per start. If a pitcher allows three earned runs in six innings, he gets a quality start with an ERA of 4.50 for that game. But if a pitcher pitches for nine innings and allows four earned runs, he would have a 4.00 ERA, but would not get a quality start. Former pitcher Carl Erskine said "in my day, a quality start was a complete game ... you gave everybody a day's rest."[15]

That the category is more reliable in the aggregate can be seen with countervailing individual examples, such as the ones listed by Sports Illustrated writer Joe Posnanski in a 2011 piece on the subject:[16]

"In July 2000, Mark Mulder went 6 2/3 innings, gave up 15 hits and nine runs — but only two were earned, so that was classified as a quality start.
In June 1997, Randy Johnson struck out 19 in a complete game but allowed four runs. That was not a quality start.
In July 1982, Mike Scott allowed seven hits and walked five in six innings, did not strike out anybody, gave up seven runs, but only three of those were earned. Quality start.
In April 1974, Gaylord Perry went 15 innings and allowed four runs. Not a quality start."

On the other hand, in the 21st century, team management has increasingly looked upon complete games with disfavor due to the clear and convincing evidence that a pitcher left in the game for more than six or perhaps seven innings is both less effective and at substantially increased risk of injury. Today, a manager is widely expected to pull his starting pitcher once he reaches his pitch count limit, no matter how well he is pitching. This managerial caution reached an unprecedented new standard in 2022 when the Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw (who had an abbreviated spring training) was pulled after pitching a perfect game through seven innings, and only 80 pitches. The Dodgers' manager, Dave Roberts, had also pulled Rich Hill in 2016 after his own seven-inning perfect game bid, due to an injury precaution on Hill's throwing hand.[17] Both perfect game bids were broken up later on, and there has yet to be a combined perfect game.

Alternatives

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Nolan Ryan has used the term "high quality start" for games where the pitcher goes seven innings or more and allows three earned runs or fewer,[3] which baseball columnist and former BBWAA president Derrick Goold referred to as "quality start plus".[18]

Dayn Perry of CBS Sports suggested what he calls the "dominant start".[19] This stat would award a pitcher with a dominant start if he goes at least eight innings, and allows no more than one run, earned or unearned.[19] Perry argues that this stat would better show which pitchers are truly the best in all of baseball.[19]

John Laghezza of The Athletic has offered two proposals:[14]

  • The "money start" (QS$) – seven or more innings pitched with no more than two runs allowed.
  • The "plus start" (QS+) – same as quality start while excluding starts where the pitcher allowed three earned runs in fewer than seven innings. Starts of at least six innings, but fewer than seven innings, would still qualify when no more than two earned runs were allowed (two earned runs in six innings is an ERA of 3.00). Under this proposal, the highest ERA would be 3.86 (three earned runs in seven innings).

References

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  1. ^ Neyer, Rob (2006-04-13). "Quality start still a good measure of quality". ESPN.
  2. ^ a b Lowe, John (December 26, 1985). "A stat for off-season: A new gauge of starting pitchers". The Philadelphia Inquirer. p. 1D. Retrieved January 24, 2023 – via newspapers.com.
  3. ^ a b "The Quality Starts and its Discontents". SBNation. 20 May 2013. Retrieved 2015-06-16.
  4. ^ "MLB Stat Leaders". ESPN.com. Retrieved January 24, 2023.
  5. ^ "MLB Statistics Glossary". ESPN. Archived from the original on June 7, 2004. Retrieved 2007-04-19.
  6. ^ "Pitching Charts". Baseball Almanac. Retrieved January 24, 2023.
  7. ^ "Prospectus Feature: I Come to Praise Quality Starts, Not to Bury Them". 2 May 2016.
  8. ^ "Jacob deGrom's Quality Start Breaks a Major League Record". The New York Times. 22 September 2018.
  9. ^ "Framber Valdez 2022 Pitching Game Logs".
  10. ^ "Player Pitching Season & Career Finder: Spanning Multiple Seasons or entire Careers, In the Regular Season, from 1871 to 2020, requiring Games Started >= 100 and QS >= 1, sorted by greatest QS%". Stathead Baseball. Retrieved May 9, 2021.
  11. ^ "Stats Sunday – Quality Starts". 19 May 2013.
  12. ^ Deane, Bill (2012). Baseball Myths: Debating, Debunking, and Disproving Tales from the Diamond. Scarecrow Press. ISBN 9780810885462.
  13. ^ Smith, David (Spring 1992). "The Quality Start is a Useful Statistic". Archived from the original on 2011-07-04. Retrieved 2010-08-08.
  14. ^ a b Laghezza, John (March 23, 2022). "The win is a horrible measure for a pitcher, the quality start is garbage: Introducing QS+". The Athletic. Retrieved January 24, 2023.
  15. ^ Zimniuch, Fran (2010). Fireman: The Evolution of the Closer in Baseball. Chicago: Triumph Books. p. 74. ISBN 978-1-60078-312-8.
  16. ^ Posnanski, Joe (July 3, 2011). "Joe Blogs: All You Never Wanted To Know: Quality Starts". Blogspot. Archived from the original on July 15, 2011 – via Wayback Machine.
  17. ^ Gonzalez, Alden (April 14, 2022). "Los Angeles Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw reiterates it was 'right call' to remove him during perfect game". ESPN.com.
  18. ^ Goold, Derrick (May 7, 2010). "The Gibson: Reconsidering the "Quality Start" stat". stltoday.com.
  19. ^ a b c "Quality Start? Introducing the 'Dominant Start' - CBSSports.com". www.cbssports.com. Archived from the original on 2014-08-14.

Further reading

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