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List of Category 5 South Pacific severe tropical cyclones

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Category 5 South Pacific severe tropical cyclones are tropical cyclones that reach Category 5 intensity on the Australian tropical cyclone intensity scale within the South Pacific basin. They are by definition the strongest tropical cyclones that can form on Earth. A total of 21 tropical cyclones have peaked at Category 5 strength in the South Pacific tropical cyclone basin, which is denoted as the part of the Pacific Ocean to the south of the equator and to the east of 160°E. 20 of these tropical cyclones have been classified as Category 5 on the Australian tropical cyclone intensity scale, while Severe Tropical Cyclone Anne was estimated to be equivalent to a Category 5 on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale.

Winston at record peak intensity near Fiji on 20 February 2016

The earliest tropical cyclone to be classified as a Category 5 severe tropical cyclone was Hina, which was classified as a Category 5 between March 6 - 7, 1985, as it moved through the Solomon Islands. The latest system to be classified as a Category 5 severe tropical cyclone was Cyclone Niran, which was classified on March 5, 2021, before it made landfall on New Caledonia.

Background

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The South Pacific tropical cyclone basin is located to the south of the Equator between 160°E and 120°W.[1] The basin is officially monitored by the Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS) and the New Zealand MetService who are the primary warning centres for the region.[1][2] Other meteorological services such as the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), Météo-France (MF) as well as the United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the National Weather Service also monitor the basin.[1][2] Within the basin, a Category 5 severe tropical cyclone is a tropical cyclone that has 10-minute maximum sustained wind speeds over 107 knots (198 km/h; 123 mph) or greater on the Australian tropical cyclone intensity scale.[1][3] A named storm could also be classified as a Category 5 tropical cyclone if it is estimated, to have 1-minute mean maximum sustained wind speeds over 137 knots (254 km/h; 158 mph) on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale.[1][4] Within the basin this scale is only officially used in American Samoa, however, systems are commonly compared to the SSHWS using 1-minute sustained windspeeds from the United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center.[1][5][6] On both scales, a Category 5 tropical cyclone is expected to cause widespread devastation, if it significantly impacts land at or near its peak intensity.[3][4]

Before the formal start of the satellite era during the 1969-70 season, there was no way of determining how intense a tropical cyclone was unless it impacted land or either a ship or a plane happened to observe it.[7]

Over the years, the intensity estimates of tropical cyclones have been reanalysed for various reasons and were found to have been underestimated by the various warning centres.[2][5]

There is not enough evidence available to make definitive conclusions about how climate change is impacting Category 5 severe tropical cyclones, however, tropical cyclones are generally expected to become stronger and more frequent in the future.[8]

Systems

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Name Duration Peak intensity Areas affected Damage
(USD) 		Deaths Refs
Wind speed Pressure
Hina March 10 - 19, 1985 220 km/h (140 mph) 910 hPa (26.87 inHg) Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Fiji >$3 million 1 [9][10][11]
Fran March 4 - 11, 1992 205 km/h (125 mph) 920 hPa (27.17 inHg) Wallis and Futuna, Fiji, Vanuatu
New Caledonia, Queensland, New Zealand		 Unknown Unknown [12]
Ron January 1 - 9, 1998 230 km/h (145 mph) 900 hPa (26.58 inHg) Samoan Islands, Wallis and Futuna, Tonga None [13][14]
Susan December 20, 1997 – January 10, 1998 230 km/h (145 mph) 900 hPa (26.58 inHg) Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Fiji $100,000 1 [14][15][16]
Zoe December 23 2002 - January 4, 2003 240 km/h (150 mph) 890 hPa (26.28 inHg) Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Fiji Severe None [17]
Beni January 19 - February 1, 2003 205 km/h (125 mph) 920 hPa (27.17 inHg) Solomon Islands, Vanuatu
New Caledonia, Australia		 $1 million 1 [18]
Dovi February 8 - 9, 2003 205 km/h (125 mph) 920 hPa (27.17 inHg) Niue, Cook Islands Minimal None [19][20]
Erica March 12 - 14, 2003 215 km/h (130 mph) 915 hPa (27.02 inHg) Queensland, Solomon Islands
Vanuatu, New Caledonia		 $15 million 2 [21]
Heta January 5 - 6, 2004 215 km/h (130 mph) 915 hPa (27.02 inHg) Samoan Islands, Niue, Tonga, Wallis and Futuna $225 million 3 [22][23][24][25][26]
Meena February 1 - 11, 2005 215 km/h (130 mph) 915 hPa (27.02 inHg) Cook Islands $20 million None [27]
Olaf February 10 - 20, 2005 215 km/h (130 mph) 915 hPa (27.02 inHg) Samoan Islands, Cook Islands $10 million None [28]
Percy February 23 - March 5, 2005 230 km/h (145 mph) 900 hPa (26.58 inHg) Tokelau, Samoan Islands, Cook Islands $25 million None [29]
Ului March 14, 2010 215 km/h (130 mph) 915 hPa (27.02 inHg) Solomon Islands, Vanuatu Unknown 1 [30][31]
Ian January 11, 2014 205 km/h (125 mph) 930 hPa (27.46 inHg) Fiji, Tonga $48 million 1 [32][33]
Pam March 12 - 14, 2015 250 km/h (155 mph) 896 hPa (26.46 inHg) Fiji, Kiribati, Solomon Islands, Tuvalu
Vanuatu, New Caledonia, New Zealand		 $360 million 16 [34]
Winston February 18 - 21, 2016 280 km/h (175 mph) 884 hPa (26.10 inHg) Vanuatu, Fiji, Tonga, Niue $1.4 billion 44 [35][36]
Donna May 8, 2017 205 km/h (125 mph) 937 hPa (27.67 inHg) Melanesia, New Zealand $10 million 2 [37][38]
Gita February 13 - 14, 2018 205 km/h (125 mph) 927 hPa (27.37 inHg) Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Fiji, Niue
Wallis and Futuna, Samoan Islands, Tonga		 $221 million 2 [38][39]
Harold April 2 - 9, 2020 230 km/h (145 mph) 920 hPa (27.17 inHg) Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Fiji, Tonga Significant 29 [40][41]
Yasa December 11 – 19, 2020 230 km/h (145 mph) 917 hPa (27.08 inHg) Fiji, Tonga Significant 4 [42][43]
Niran February 25 – March 8, 2021 205 km/h (125 mph) 931 hPa (27.49 inHg) Queensland, New Caledonia Extensive [44][45][46]
Kevin February 27, 2023 – March 6, 2023 230 km/h (145 mph) 913 hPa (26.96 inHg) Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, New Caledonia Extensive [47]
Lola October 23 – 27, 2023 215 km/h (130 mph) 930 hPa (27.46 inHg) Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, New Caledonia Unknown [48]

Other systems

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In addition to the tropical cyclones listed above, Severe Tropical Cyclone Anne (1988) was estimated by the JTWC to have peaked with one-minute sustained wind speeds of 260 km/h (160 mph) for six hours on January 11, 1988.[49] This made it equivalent to a Category 5 hurricane on the SSHWS; however, the FMS estimated that the system had peaked with 10-minute sustained winds of 185 km/h (115 mph) based on the Dvorak technique, which made it a Category 4 severe tropical cyclone on the Australian scale.[49][50] Elsewhere in the South Pacific Ocean, Severe Tropical Cyclones: Dominic (1982), Elinor (1983), Kathy (1984), Harry (1989), Aivu (1989), Rewa (1993-94), Theodore (1994), Monica (2006), Hamish (2009), Yasi (2011), Ita (2014), Marcia (2015), Jasper (2023) were each considered to be a Category 5 severe tropical cyclone by the BoM while located in the Australian region.[51] During a database repair project that took place between 2005 and 2007, the BoM discovered that Severe Tropical Cyclone Pam 1974 had been reanalysed at some point after 1979.[52] This reanalysis showed that Pam had moved into the Australian region as a category 5 severe tropical cyclone, however, during 2021 it was determined that the width of Pam's southern eyewall was too narrow at this time and the BoM downgraded it to a Category 4 severe tropical cyclone.[52]

During 2014, Meteo France's French Polynesian Meteorological Centre and RSMC La Reunion published the results of a reanalysis, they had undertaken into Severe Tropical Cyclone's Nisha-Orama and Veena of the 1982-83 season.[2] Within the reanalysis, they found that Nisha-Orama was the strongest tropical cyclone to impact French Polynesia on record and had peaked with 10-minute sustained wind speeds of 228 km/h (142 mph) and a minimum pressure of 898 hPa (26.52 inHg).[2] They also estimated that Veena had peaked with 10-minute sustained wind speeds of 211 km/h (131 mph) and a minimum pressure of 910 hPa (26.87 inHg).[2] During 2017, a study into extreme tropical cyclone activity in the southern Pacific Ocean was published in the Royal Meteorological Society's International Journal of Climatology.[5] Within the study, the authors reanalysed satellite images of several tropical cyclones between 1980 - 2016 using the 1984 Dvorak Technique and found that 18 tropical cyclones had reached Category 5 intensity on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale.[5] In particular the study estimated that Severe Tropical Cyclones: Nisha - Orama and Oscar of the 1982-83 season had peaked with 1-minute sustained wind speeds of 280 km/h (175 mph) and that Anne (1988) had peaked with 1-minute wind speeds of 285 km/h (180 mph).[5] They also estimated that Severe Tropical Cyclone Hina had peaked with 1-minute sustained wind speeds of 315 km/h (195 mph), which would make it one of the strongest tropical cyclones on record in the Southern Hemisphere.[5]

Land interaction

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Off the 22 Category 5 severe tropical cyclones listed above, only Severe Tropical Cyclones: Fran, Beni, Erica, Ului, Pam, Winston, Harold, Yasa and Kevin are considered to have made landfall on a Pacific nation. Severe Tropical Cyclone's Pam, Winston, Harold and Yasa are the only systems to have made landfall while at Category 5 intensity and were considered to have caused widespread devastation to Fiji and Vanuatu.[citation needed] Erica directly impacted New Caledonia as a Category 5 severe tropical cyclone, however, it had markedly weakened, before it made landfall on New Caledonia's main island.[53][54]

Severe Tropical Cyclone's Fran, Beni and Ului all made landfall on Queensland, Australia. In addition to these six systems making landfall, several systems have either threatened or passed very near to various smaller islands at their peak intensity. In particular, Fran passed in between the islands of Efate and Erromango in Vanuatu during March 9, 1992 while Susan threatened Vanuatu during January 5, 1998, but recurved in time to spare the island nation a direct hit.[55][14] At around 18:00 UTC on January 6, 1998, Severe Tropical Cyclone Ron passed within 10 km (5 mi) of the Tongan island of Niuafo'ou.[14] Severe Tropical Cyclone Zoe passed near or over several of the Solomon Islands within Temotu Province during December 2002.[6]

During 2020, Cyclone Harold made landfall on northern Vanuatu as a Category 5 severe tropical cyclone, before later impacting Fiji and Tonga as a Category 4 severe tropical cyclone.[43] Later that year, Cyclone Yasa made landfall in Fiji as a Category 5 severe tropical cyclone with sustained winds of 240 km/h (150 mph) and momentary gusts of 345 km/h (215 mph).[43] Severe Tropical Cyclone Niran subsequently skirted the coast of New Caledonia as it weakened into a Category 3 Severe Tropical Cyclone.[46]

See also

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References

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  1. ^ a b c d e f RA V Tropical Cyclone Committee (2024). Tropical Cyclone Operational Plan for the South-East Indian Ocean and the Southern Pacific Ocean 2024 (PDF) (Report). World Meteorological Organization. Retrieved October 14, 2024.
  2. ^ a b c d e f Laurent, Victoire; Varney, Patrick (2014). Historique des Cyclones de Polynesie Francaise [History of Cyclones in French Polynesia] (in French). Meteo France. ISBN 978-2-9522946-1-4.
  3. ^ a b 2017/2018 Tropical Cyclone Season Summary of Alerts and Warnings Procedures for Fiji (PDF) (Report). Fiji Meteorological Service. October 23, 2017. pp. 3 & 11. Archived (PDF) from the original on April 13, 2018.
  4. ^ a b Schott, Timothy; Landsea, Christopher; Hafele, Gene; Lorens, Jeffrey; Taylor, Arthur; Thrum, Harvey; Ward, Bill; Willis, Mark; Zaleski, Walt (January 2, 2019). The Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (PDF) (Report). United States National Hurricane Center. Archived (PDF) from the original on May 25, 2019. Retrieved June 4, 2019.
  5. ^ a b c d e f Hoarau, Karl; Chalonge, Ludovic; Pirard, Florence; Peyrusaubes, Daniel (March 2018). "Extreme tropical cyclone activities in the southern Pacific Ocean". International Journal of Climatology. 38 (3): 1409–1420. Bibcode:2018IJCli..38.1409H. doi:10.1002/joc.5254. S2CID 133864648.
  6. ^ a b Masters, Jeff; Henson, Bob (February 19, 2016). "Fiji Pounded by its First Category 5 Storm on Record: Tropical Cyclone Winston". Weather Underground. Archived from the original on April 23, 2018. Retrieved June 16, 2019.
  7. ^ http://www.pacificdisaster.net/doc/JB_DM371_1996_TC_Southwest_Pacific.pdf [bare URL PDF]
  8. ^ Masters, Jeff; Henson, Bob (December 17, 2020). "Tropical Cyclone Yasa makes landfall in Fiji with 145 mph winds". Yale Climate Connections. Archived from the original on December 17, 2020. Retrieved December 21, 2020.
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  18. ^ "2002 Tropical Cyclone Beni (2003021S10163)". International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship. Retrieved April 2, 2019.
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  20. ^ Padgett, Gary. Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary February 2003 (Report). Archived from the original on July 17, 2011. Retrieved April 2, 2019.
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  22. ^ Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters. "EM-DAT: The Emergency Events Database". Université catholique de Louvain.
  23. ^ "2003 Tropical Cyclone Heta (2003359S15177)". International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship. Retrieved April 2, 2019.
  24. ^ McKenzie, Emily; Prasad, Binman; Kaloumaira, Atu (2005). "Economic Impact of Natural Disasters on development in the Pacific Volume 1: Research Report" (PDF). South Pacific Applied Geoscience Commission. pp. 10–89. Archived from the original (PDF) on March 11, 2012. Retrieved June 29, 2010.
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  29. ^ "2005 Tropical Cyclone Percy (2005054S09173)". International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship. Retrieved April 2, 2019.
  30. ^ "2010 Tropical Cyclone Ului (2010070S15168)". International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship. Retrieved April 2, 2019.
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  32. ^ "2014 Tropical Cyclone Ian (2014004S17183)". International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship. Retrieved April 2, 2019.
  33. ^ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 2012-10-19. Retrieved 2015-08-26.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
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  35. ^ "2016 Tropical Cyclone Winston (2016041S14170)". International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship. Retrieved April 2, 2019.
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  47. ^ Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Summary 2022/23 Season (PDF) (Report). Fiji Meteorological Service. July 24, 2023. Archived (PDF) from the original on October 25, 2023. Retrieved December 30, 2023.
  48. ^ Prasad, Shivneel A (February 26, 2024). Report on Severe Tropical Cyclone Lola (PDF) (Report). Fiji Meteorological Service. Archived from the original (PDF) on February 26, 2024. Retrieved February 24, 2024.
  49. ^ a b "1988 Tropical Cyclone ANNE (1988006S05182)". International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship. Retrieved May 25, 2019.
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  51. ^ "Australian Tropical Cyclone Database" (CSV). Australian Bureau of Meteorology. 2023-06-30. Retrieved 2023-06-30. A guide on how to read the database is available here.
  52. ^ a b Courtney, Joseph B; Foley, Gary R; van Burgel, Johannes L; Trewin, Blair; Burton, Andrew D; Callaghan, Jeffrey; Davidson, Noel E (2021). "Revisions to the Australian tropical cyclone best track database". Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science. 71 (2): 219. doi:10.1071/ES21011. S2CID 244220599.
  53. ^ Hall, Jonty C; Callaghan, Jeff (April 12, 2003). "Tropical Cyclone Zoe — the most intense Tropical Cyclone observed in the Australia/South Pacific region?". Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society. 16 (April 2003): 31–36. Archived from the original on March 20, 2012.
  54. ^ Padgett, Gary. Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary March 2003 (Report). Archived from the original on July 17, 2011. Retrieved December 1, 2019.
  55. ^ Tropical cyclones in Vanuatu: 1847 to 1994 (PDF) (Report). Vanuatu Meteorological Service. May 19, 1994. Archived (PDF) from the original on July 28, 2024. Retrieved February 21, 2015.
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