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Demographics of Kazakhstan

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"Kazakhstani" redirects here. For other uses, see Kazakh (disambiguation).

The demographics of Kazakhstan enumerate the demographic features of the population of Kazakhstan, including population growth, population density, ethnicity, education level, health, economic status, religious affiliations, and other aspects of the population. Some use the word Kazakh to refer to the Kazakh ethnic group and language (autochthonous to Kazakhstan as well as parts of China and Mongolia) and Kazakhstani to refer to Kazakhstan and its citizens regardless of ethnicity,[7][8] but it is common to use Kazakh in both senses.[9][10][11] It is expected that by 2050, the population will range from 23.5 to 27.7 million people.[12]

Demographics of Kazakhstan
Population pyramid of Kazakhstan in 2023
Population20,182,003 (1 August 2024)[1]
Density7.40651/km2
Growth rate8.6/1,000 population (2024 est.)
Birth rate17.2 births/1,000 population (2024 est.)
Death rate8.1 deaths/1,000 population (2024 est.)
Life expectancy73.3 years (2024 est.)[2]
 • male69 years
 • female77.9 years
Fertility rate3.32 children born/woman (2023 est.)[3]
Infant mortality rate8 deaths/1,000 live births (2024 est.)
Net migration rate-0.4 migrant(s)/1,000 population (2024 est.)
Age structure
0–14 years29.5% (male 3,001,983/female 2,833,471)
15–64 years62.0% (male 6,028,354/female 6,224,431)
65 and over8.5% (male 617,364/female 1,061,204) (2023 Est.)[4]
Sex ratio
Total0.95 male(s)/female
At birth1.06 male(s)/female
Under 151.05 male(s)/female
15–64 years0.95 male(s)/female
65 and over0.54 male(s)/female
Nationality
NationalityKazakh(s) or Kazakhstani(s)
Major ethnicKazakh (71.0%)[5][6]
Minor ethnic
Language
OfficialKazakh
SpokenLanguages of Kazakhstan

Overview

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Official estimates put the population of Kazakhstan at 20,182,003 as of August 2024, of which 62.7% is urban and 37.3% is rural population.[13] In a report released by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) in September 2021, the level of urbanization in Kazakhstan is estimated to reach 69.1% by 2050.[14]

The proportion of men makes up 48.85% and the proportion of women is 51.15%.

Ethnic Kazakhs make up 71%, Russians 14.9%, Uzbeks 3.3%, Ukrainians 1.9%, Uygur 1.5%, Germans 1.1%, Tatars 1.1%, and others 5.2%.

The first census in Kazakhstan was conducted under Russian Imperial rule in 1897, which estimated population at round 4 million people. Following censuses showed a growth until 1939, where numbers showed a decrease to 6,081 thousand relative to the previous census done 13 years earlier, due to famines of 1922 and 1933.

Main articles: Kazakh famine of 1919–1922 and Kazakh famine of 1932–33

But since 1939 population has steadily increased to 16.5 million in 1989, according to corresponding year census. Official estimates indicate that the population continued to increase after 1989, peaking out at 17 million in 1993 and then declining to 15 million in the 1999 census. The downward trend continued through 2002, when the estimated population bottomed out at 14.9 million, and then resumed its growth.[15] Significant numbers of Russians returned to Russia. Kazakhstan underwent significant urbanization during the first 50 years of the Soviet era, as the share of the rural population declined from more than 90% in the 1920s to less than 50% since the 1970s.[16] The fertility rate declined to amongst the lower rates in the world in 1999 and increased to again amongst the higher rates in the world in 2021.

Population size and structure

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Population of Kazakhstan 1897–2024

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Year Population (thousands) Urban, % Rural, % Source
1897 4,000 — — census
1926 6,198 — — census
1939 6,081
28%
72%
 census
1959 9,295
44%
56%
 census
1970 13,001
50%
50%
 census
1979 14,685
54%
46%
 census
1989 16,537
57%
43%
 census
1999 14,953
57%
43%
 census
2009 15,982
54%
46%
 census
2021 19,186
61%
39%
 census
2024 20,182
63%
37%
 estimate
Data sources: Population 1897 from Russian Empire Census. Population 1926 from First All-Union Census of the Soviet Union. Population 1939–1999 from demoscope.ru,[15] 2002–2008 from Kazakhstan Statistical Agency web site.[17] Rural/urban shares 1939–1993 from statistical yearbooks, print editions,[16] 2002–2008 from Kazakhstan Statistical Agency web site.[17] 2009–2014 from Kazakhstan Statistical Agency web site.[18]

As of 2003, there were discrepancies between Western sources regarding the population of Kazakhstan. United States government sources, including the CIA World Fact Book and the US Census Bureau International Data Base, listed the population as 15,340,533,[19] while the World Bank gave a 2002 estimate of 14,858,948.[20] This discrepancy was presumably due to difficulties in measurement caused by the large migratory population in Kazakhstan, emigration, and low population density – only about 5.5 persons per km2 in an area the size of Western Europe.

Structure of the population

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Population Estimates by Sex and Age Group (01.VII.2021) (Data refer to resident population.):[21]

Age Group Male Female Total %
Total 9 223 589 9 777 399 19 000 988 100
0 223 552 209 539 433 090 2.28
1–4 818 257 766 788 1 585 045 8.34
5–9 982 270 927 108 1 909 377 10.05
10–14 857 617 811 696 1 669 313 8.76
15–19 643 879 610 943 1 254 821 6.60
20–24 568 174 544 634 1 112 808 5.86
25–29 699 428 680 033 1 379 461 7.26
30–34 793 785 815 781 1 609 566 8.47
35–39 690 052 709 580 1 399 631 7.37
40–44 586 612 615 237 1 201 849 6.33
45–49 525 164 576 347 1 101 510 5.80
50–54 475 079 532 077 1 007 156 5.30
55–59 449 996 534 713 984 709 5.18
60–64 375 734 486 204 861 938 4.54
65–69 241 436 361 664 603 099 3.17
70–74 149 026 263 406 412 432 2.17
75–79 60 581 122 881 183 462 0.97
80–84 57 026 141 863 198 889 1.05
85–89 17 029 47 320 64 348 0.34
90–94 5 915 15 747 21 662 0.11
95–99 1 980 3 013 4 993 0.03
100+ 1 002 831 1 832 0.01
Age group Male Female Total Percent
0–14 2 881 696 2 715 129 5 596 825 29.46
15–64 5 807 898 6 105 548 11 913 446 62.70
65+ 533 995 956 722 1 490 717 7.84

Structure of the population (01.01.2021) (Estimates):[22]

Age Group Male Female Total %
Total 9 160 399 9 719 153 18 879 552 100
0–15 2 980 297 2 809 236 5 789 533 30.7
16–62(59) 5 524 137 5 485 235 11 009 372 58.3
63(60)+ 655 965 1 424 682 2 080 647 11.0

The age group under 15 is considered below the working age, while the age group over 63(60) is above the working age (63 years for men, 60 for women).

Vital statistics

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Births and deaths

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[23][24][25] [26]

Average population Live births1 Deaths1 Natural change1 Crude birth rate (per 1000) Crude death rate (per 1000) Natural change (per 1000) Crude migration change (per 1000) Fertility rates Life expectancy
1950 6,703,000 254,169 79,005 175,164 37.9 11.8 26.1
1951 6,946,000 272,354 80,553 191,801 39.2 11.6 27.6 8.7
1952 7,133,000 265,235 85,241 179,994 37.2 12.0 25.2 1.7
1953 7,271,000 262,758 73,930 188,828 36.1 10.2 26.0 -6.7
1954 7,528,000 278,420 76,092 202,328 37.0 10.1 26.9 8.4
1955 7,992,000 299,854 73,283 226,571 37.5 9.2 28.3 33.3
1956 8,426,000 305,430 64,807 240,623 36.3 7.7 28.6 25.7
1957 8,722,000 326,766 68,050 258,716 37.5 7.8 29.7 5.4
1958 9,077,000 336,020 62,680 273,340 37.0 6.9 30.1 10.6
1959 9,516,000 349,794 69,602 280,192 36.8 7.3 29.4 19.0
1960 9,996,000 372,595 65,667 306,928 37.2 6.6 30.7 19.7
1961 10,480,000 377,789 68,610 309,179 36.1 6.5 29.5 18.9
1962 10,958,000 369,002 70,952 298,050 33.7 6.5 27.2 18.4
1963 11,321,000 346,084 67,218 278,866 30.6 5.9 24.6 8.5
1964 11,610,000 324,412 66,197 258,215 27.9 5.7 22.2 3.3
1965 11,909,000 314,533 69,803 244,730 26.4 5.9 20.6 5.2
1966 12,185,000 307,905 69,402 238,503 25.3 5.7 19.6 3.6
1967 12,456,000 301,715 71,824 229,891 24.2 5.8 18.5 3.7
1968 12,694,000 296,882 73,496 223,386 23.4 5.8 17.6 1.5
1969 12,901,000 297,129 78,660 218,469 23.0 6.1 16.9 -0.6
1970 13,106,000 301,451 77,619 223,832 23.0 5.9 17.1 -1.2
1971 13,321,000 317,423 79,881 237,542 23.8 6.0 17.8 -1.4
1972 13,534,000 318,551 85,122 233,429 23.5 6.3 17.2 -1.2
1973 13,742,000 321,075 90,282 230,793 23.4 6.6 16.8 -1.4
1974 13,955,000 338,291 93,582 244,709 24.2 6.7 17.5 -2.0
1975 14,136,000 343,668 101,865 241,803 24.3 7.2 17.1 -4.1
1976 14,279,000 350,362 103,892 246,470 24.5 7.3 17.3 -7.2
1977 14,425,000 349,379 105,376 244,003 24.2 7.3 16.9 -6.7
1978 14,589,000 355,337 107,293 248,044 24.4 7.4 17.0 -5.6
1979 14,743,000 354,320 113,687 240,633 24.0 7.7 16.3 -5.7
1980 14,884,000 356,013 119,078 236,935 23.9 8.0 15.9 -6.3
1981 15,033,000 367,950 120,974 246,976 24.5 8.0 16.4 -6.4
1982 15,185,000 373,416 120,165 253,251 24.6 7.9 16.7 -6.6
1983 15,334,000 378,577 123,807 254,770 24.7 8.1 16.6 -6.8
1984 15,481,000 399,403 129,796 269,607 25.8 8.4 17.4 -7.8 3.04
1985 15,623,000 396,929 126,786 270,143 25.4 8.1 17.3 -8.1 3.02
1986 15,776,000 410,846 119,149 291,697 26.0 7.6 18.5 -8.7 3.13
1987 15,948,000 417,139 122,835 294,304 26.2 7.7 18.5 -7.6 3.19
1988 16,188,000 407,116 126,898 280,218 25.3 7.9 17.4 -2.4 3.13
1989 16,243,000 382,269 126,378 255,891 23.5 7.8 15.8 -12.4 2.81
1990 16,328,000 362,081 128,576 233,505 22.2 7.9 14.3 -9.1 2.72
1991 16,405,000 353,174 134,324 218,850 21.5 8.2 13.3 -8.6 2.67
1992 16,439,000 337,612 137,518 200,094 20.5 8.4 12.2 -10.1 2.62
1993 16,381,000 315,482 156,070 159,412 19.3 9.5 9.7 -13.2 2.54
1994 16,146,000 305,624 160,339 145,285 18.9 9.9 9.0 -23.3 2.43
1995 15,816,000 276,125 168,656 107,469 17.5 10.7 6.8 -27.2 2.21
1996 15,578,000 253,175 166,028 87,147 16.3 10.7 5.6 -20.6 2.02
1997 15,334,000 232,356 160,138 72,218 15.2 10.4 4.7 -20.4 1.93
1998 15,072,000 222,380 154,314 68,066 14.8 10.2 4.5 -21.6 1.81
1999 14,939,000 217,578 147,416 70,162 14.6 9.9 4.7 -13.5 1.80 65.6
2000 14,883,626 222,054 149,778 72,276 14.9 10.1 4.9 -8.6 1.88 65.5
2001 14,858,335 221,487 147,876 73,611 14.9 9.9 5.0 -6.7 1.84 65.8
2002 14,858,948 227,171 149,381 77,790 15.3 10.1 5.2 -5.2 1.88 66.0
2003 14,909,018 247,946 155,277 92,669 16.6 10.4 6.2 -2.8 2.03 65.8
2004 15,012,985 273,028 152,250 120,778 18.2 10.1 8.1 -1.1 2.21 66.2
2005 15,147,029 278,977 157,121 121,856 18.4 10.4 8.1 0.8 2.22 65.9
2006 15,308,084 301,756 157,210 144,546 19.7 10.3 9.4 1.2 2.36 66.2
2007 15,484,192 321,963 158,297 163,666 20.8 10.2 10.6 0.9 2.47 66.3
2008 15,674,000 357,555 152,878 204,677 22.8 9.8 13.0 -0.7 2.68 67.1
2009 16,092,822 356,261 142,883 213,378 22.1 8.9 13.3 13.4 2.55 68.4
2010 16,321,872 367,707 146,027 221,680 22.5 9.0 13.6 0.6 2.59 68.5
2011 16,557,201 372,690 144,323 228,367 22.5 8.7 13.8 0.6 2.59 68.7
2012 16,792,089 381,153 143,411 237,742 22.7 8.5 14.2 0 2.62 69.5
2013 17,035,550 387,256 136,368 250,888 22.7 8.0 14.7 -0.2 2.64 70.6
2014 17,288,285 399,309 132,287 267,022 23.1 7.7 15.5 -0.7 2.73 71.4
2015 17,542,806 398,458 130,811 267,647 22.7 7.5 15.3 -0.6 2.74 72.0
2016 17,794,055 400,694 131,231 269,463 22.5 7.4 15.2 -0.9 2.77 72.4
2017 18,037,775 390,262 129,009 261,253 21.6 7.2 14.5 -0.8 2.75 73.0
2018 18,276,452 397,799 130,448 267,351 21.8 7.1 14.6 -1.4 2.84 73.2
2019 18,513,673 402,310 133,128 269,182 21.7 7.2 14.5 -1.5 2.90 73.2
2020 18,755,665 426,824 161,333 265,491 22.8 8.6 14.2 -1.1 3.13 71.4
2021 19,000,987 446,491 182,403 264,088 23.5 9.6 13.9 -0.8 3.32 70.2
2022 19,634,983 403,893 133,523 270,370 20.6 6.8 13.8 19.6 3.05 74.4
2023 19,900,325 388,428 130,686 257,742 19.5 6.6 13.0 0.5 2.96 75.1

1 Births and deaths until 1979 are estimates.

Current vital statistics

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[27] [28]

Period Live births Deaths Natural increase
January—September 2023 290,894 96,141 +194,753
January—September 2024 278,698 99,504 +179,194
Difference   -12,196 (-4.19%)   +3,363 (+3.50%)   -15,559

Total fertility rate

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Total Fertility Rate of Kazakhstan by region (2021)

Total fertility rate by regions of Kazakhstan:

Mangystau – 3.80
South Kazakhstan – 3.71
Kyzylorda – 3.42
Atyrau – 3.29
Jambyl – 3.20
Aqtobe – 2.70
Almaty (province) – 2.65
Almaty (city) – 2.65
City of Astana – 2.44
West Kazakhstan – 2.29
Aqmola – 2.19
East Kazakhstan – 2.07
Qaragandy – 2.04
Pavlodar – 1.98
North Kazakhstan – 1.72
Qostanay – 1.70
Republic of Kazakhstan – 2.65

Thus it can be seen that fertility rate is higher in more traditionalist and religious south and west, and lower in the north and east, where the percentage of Slavic and German population is still relatively high.[29][30][31]

According to the Kazakhstan Demographic and Health Survey in 1999, the TFR for Kazakhs was 2.5 and that for Russians was 1.38. TFR in 1989 for Kazakhs & Russians were 3.58 and 2.24 respectively.[32]

Year Kazakh
women 		Russian
women 		Ukrainian
women 		Uzbek
women
1989 3.58 2.24 — —
1995 3.11 1.69 — —
1999 2.50 1.38 — —
2000 2.12 1.18 1.60 2.90
2001 2.11 1.17 1.59 2.92
2002 2.14 1.21 1.60 2.88
2003 2.30 1.30 1.71 3.10
2004 2.52 1.36 1.76 3.39
2005 2.54 1.35 1.73 3.32
2006 2.73 1.38 1.80 3.43

[33]

Life expectancy at birth

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Life expectancy in Kazakhstan since 1868
 
Life expectancy in Kazakhstan since 1960 by gender
Period Life expectancy in
Years 		Period Life expectancy in
Years
1950–1955 55.1 1985–1990 67.5
1955–1960 57.3 1990–1995 65.5
1960–1965 59.5 1995–2000 63.0
1965–1970 61.7 2000–2005 64.6
1970–1975 63.3 2005–2010 66.0
1975–1980 64.3 2010–2015 69.1
1980–1985 65.9

Source: UN World Population Prospects[34]

Ethnic groups

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The share of Kazakhs in Kazakhstan by districts at the beginning of 2022
 
The share Russians by districts and cities of regional and republican subordination Kazakhstan in 2021
 
Kazakhstan demographics 1897–1970. Major ethnic groups. Famines marked in grey.
Main article: Ethnic demography of Kazakhstan
Ethnic groups in Kazakhstan (2024)[35]
Ethnic groups
Kazakh
 
 71.0%
Russian
 
 14.9%
Uzbek
 
 3.3%
Ukrainian
 
 1.9%
Uyghur
 
 1.5%
German
 
 1.1%
Tatar
 
 1.1%
Other
 
 5.2%

Kazakhstan's dominant ethnic group, the Kazakhs, traces its origins to the 15th century, when after the disintegration of Golden Horde, numbers of Turkic and Turco-Mongol tribes united to establish the Kazakh Khanate. With a cohesive culture and national identity, they constituted an absolute majority on the land until colonization by the Russian empire.

Russian advances into the territory of Kazakhstan began in the late 18th century, when the Kazakhs nominally accepted Russian rule in exchange for protection against repeated attacks by the western Mongolian Kalmyks. In the 1890s, Russian peasants began to settle on the fertile lands of northern Kazakhstan, causing many Kazakhs to move eastwards into Chinese territory in search of new grazing grounds. The 1906 completion of the Trans-Aral Railway between Orenburg and Tashkent further facilitated Russian colonization.[36][37]

The first collective farms were formed in Kazakhstan in 1921, populated primarily by Russians and Soviet deportees. In 1930, as part of the first Five Year Plan, the Soviet Government decreed measures of force sedentarization of nomads and their incorporation into collectivized farms. This movement resulted in devastating famines of the 1920s and of the 1930s, claiming the lives of an estimated 40% of ethnic Kazakhs (1.5 million), between 1930 and 1933.[38] Hundreds of thousands also fled to China, Iran and Afghanistan. The famine made Kazakhs a minority of the population of Kazakhstan, and only after the republic gained independence in 1991 did Kazakhs have a slim demographic majority within Kazakhstan.[36]

Demographics did shift in the 1950s and 1960s, when, as part of Nikita Khrushchev's Virgin Lands Campaign, hundreds of thousands of Soviet citizens relocated to the Kazakh steppes in order to farm. As recognized in the 1959 census, the Kazaks became the second-largest ethnic group in Kazakhstan for the first time in recorded history, comprising just 30% of the total population of Kazakhstan. Russians numbered 42.7%.[39]

Since the Soviet Union's collapse, the numbers of members of European ethnic groups has been falling and Asian groups have been continuously rising. According to 2024 estimates, the ethnic composition of Kazakhstan was approximately: 71% Kazakh, 14.9% Russian, 3.3% Uzbek, 1.9% Ukrainian, 1.5% Uyghur, 1.1% Tatar, 1.1% German, and <1% Korean, Turkish, Azerbaijani, Belarusian, Dungan, Kurdish, Tajik, Polish, Kyrgyz, Chechen.[40] According to 2021 Census, composition of child population was 79% Kazakh and 9.1% Russian.[41]

Religion

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Main article: Religion in Kazakhstan
Religion in Kazakhstan, 2021[42][43]
Islam
 
 69.3%
Christianity
 
 17.2%
No Response
 
 11.01%
Atheism
 
 2.25%
Other religions
 
 0.2%

References

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  1. ^ "Agency for Strategic planning and reforms of the Republic of Kazakhstan Bureau of National statistics - Main". stat.gov.kz. Archived from the original on 2023-06-18. Retrieved 2023-07-02.
  2. ^ "Kazakhstan". 9 September 2024.
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  6. ^ Kazakhstan population by ethnic groups
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  17. ^ a b Population and social policy Archived 2009-07-13 at the Wayback Machine, Statistical Agency of the Republic of Kazakhstan (in Russian)
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  29. ^ "Население". Archived from the original on 2009-07-13. Retrieved 2009-07-28.
  30. ^ Spoorenberg, Thomas (2013). "Fertility changes in Central Asia since 1980". Asian Population Studies. 9 (1): 50–77. doi:10.1080/17441730.2012.752238. S2CID 154532617.
  31. ^ Spoorenberg, Thomas (2015). "Explaining recent fertility increase in Central Asia". Asian Population Studies. 11 (2): 115–133. doi:10.1080/17441730.2015.1027275. S2CID 153924060.
  32. ^ "Kazakhstan: Demographic and Health Survey, 1999 – Final Report, Chapter 4: Fertility" (PDF). Archived (PDF) from the original on 2003-09-28. Retrieved 2007-02-07.
  33. ^ "ETHNIC DIFFERENTIATION OF FERTILITY IN KAZAKHSTAN" (PDF). Archived (PDF) from the original on 2021-07-16. Retrieved 2019-10-10.
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  41. ^ https://stat.gov.kz/upload/iblock/004/3kx97rnvyipmtdmbhj9cydnnl5do232t/%D0%A1-18-%D0%93-2018-2022%20(%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B3%D0%BB).pdf [bare URL PDF]
  42. ^ "2021 жылғы Қазақстан Республикасы халқының ұлттық санағының қорытындылары" [Results of the 2021 Population Census of the Republic of Kazakhstan] (in Kazakh). Agency of Strategic Planning and Reforms of the Republic of Kazakhstan National Bureau of Statistics. Archived from the original on 2 September 2022. Retrieved 19 September 2022.
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Bibliography

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  • Rasuly-Paleczek, Gabriele; Katschnig, Julia (2005), Central Asia on Display: Proceedings of the VIIth Conference of the European Society for Central Asian Studies, LIT Verlag Münster, ISBN 978-3-8258-8309-6.
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For current data, use these sites.

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