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Chingford and Woodford Green (UK Parliament constituency)

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Chingford and Woodford Green is a constituency in North East London represented in the House of Commons of the UK Parliament by Sir Iain Duncan Smith of the Conservative Party since its creation in 1997.[a]

Chingford and Woodford Green
Borough constituency
for the House of Commons
Map
Interactive map of boundaries from 2024
Boundary within Greater London
CountyGreater London
Population88,149 (2011 census)[1]
Electorate75,677 (2023)[2]
Current constituency
Created1997
Member of ParliamentIain Duncan Smith (Conservative)
SeatsOne
Created fromChingford and Wanstead & Woodford

Constituency profile

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The seat covers the outer London commuter suburbs of Chingford, Highams Park and Woodford with high levels of owner-occupier housing,[3] along with part of Epping Forest. Once safely Conservative, the seat is now marginal with Labour due to young families and ethnic minority voters moving into the constituency.[4]

Boundaries

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Map of boundaries 2010-2024

1997–2024: The London Borough of Waltham Forest wards of Chingford Green, Endlebury, Hale End and Highams Park, Hatch Lane, Larkswood, Valley, and the London Borough of Redbridge wards of Church End and Monkhams.

2024–present: The London Borough of Redbridge wards of Bridge, Churchfields, and Monkhams, and the London Borough of Waltham Forest wards of Chingford Green, Endlebury, Hatch End and Highams Park South (part), Hatch Lane and Highams Park North, Larswood (part), Valley, and Upper Walthamstow (part).[5]

Expanded to the south-east to include the Bridge ward and the remainder of the Churchfields ward, transferred from Ilford North. The part of the South Woodford ward was transferred to Leyton and Wanstead.

History

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Pre creation

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Before 1945, both Chingford and Woodford were part of the Epping parliamentary constituency, for which wartime Conservative Prime Minister Winston Churchill was MP. The Chingford and Woodford Green constituency was created in 1997 from parts of the former seats of Chingford and Wanstead and Woodford. Both seats previously had well-known MPs, Norman Tebbit and Winston Churchill respectively. Iain Duncan Smith had been MP for Chingford since 1992, then was elected MP for this constituency five years later in 1997.

Post creation

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At the seat's inauguration at the 1997 general election, there was a Conservative majority of over 5000 or 13%; the Conservatives retained the seat in 2001 with a majority little changed on a low turnout. In 2005, the Conservative incumbent did better, getting twice as many votes as Labour with a swing to the party of 6.4% (over double that nationally) from Labour.

The 2015 result gave the seat the 119th most marginal majority of the Conservative Party's 331 seats by percentage of majority.[6]

At the 2017 snap election, Duncan Smith was re-elected with a greatly reduced majority on a 7% swing to Labour, slightly more than a sixth of his 2010 margin.

The 2019 general election saw the Conservatives retaining the seat, although with a smaller majority than 2017 due to a swing to Labour, contrary to the national trend, making it the 15th most marginal Conservative seat by percentage of majority.

Faiza Shaheen, who had been Labour's candidate in 2019, was again selected as candidate by the local party in 2022, but was deselected after the July 2024 election was announced due to the nature of social media posts she had liked. She then resigned from the Labour Party and stood as an independent candidate for the constituency.[7] Prior to that, it was described as the 10th most likely seat to switch in a ranking of Labour's targets.[8]

Member of Parliament

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Election Member[9][10] Party Notes
1997 Iain Duncan Smith Conservative MP for Chingford (1992–1997)

Elections

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Elections in the 2020s

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General election 2024: Chingford and Woodford Green[11]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Iain Duncan Smith 17,281 35.6 −12.6
Labour Shama Tatler 12,524 25.8 −19.5
Independent Faiza Shaheen 12,445 25.7 N/A
Reform UK Paul Luggeri 3,653 7.5 +7.2
Green Chris Brody[b] 1,334 2.7 +2.3
Liberal Democrats Josh Hadley 1,275 2.6 −3.2
Majority 4,758 9.8 +7.2
Turnout 48,512 64.5 −7.7
Registered electors 75,178
Conservative hold Swing +3.5

Elections in the 2010s

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2019 notional result[13]
Party Vote %
Conservative 26,322 48.2
Labour 24,718 45.3
Liberal Democrats 3,193 5.8
Green 213 0.4
Brexit Party 160 0.3
Turnout 54,606 72.2
Electorate 75,677
General election 2019: Chingford and Woodford Green[14]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Iain Duncan Smith 23,481 48.5 –0.6
Labour Faiza Shaheen 22,219 45.9 +2.0
Liberal Democrats Geoffrey Seeff 2,744 5.6 +1.2
Majority 1,262 2.6 –2.6
Turnout 48,444 74.1 +2.9
Registered electors 65,393
Conservative hold Swing –1.3
General election 2017: Chingford and Woodford Green[15][16]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Iain Duncan Smith 23,076 49.1 +1.2
Labour Bilal Mahmood 20,638 43.9 +15.1
Liberal Democrats Deborah Unger 2,043 4.4 –1.1
Green Sinead King 1,204 2.6 –1.6
Majority 2,438 5.2 –13.9
Turnout 46,961 71.2 +5.5
Registered electors 65,958
Conservative hold Swing –7.0
General election 2015: Chingford and Woodford Green[17][18]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Iain Duncan Smith 20,999 47.9 –4.9
Labour Bilal Mahmood 12,613 28.8 +6.1
UKIP Freddy Vachha 5,644 12.9 +10.3
Liberal Democrats Anne Crook 2,400 5.5 –11.3
Green Rebecca Tully 1,854 4.2 +2.7
TUSC Len Hockey[19] 241 0.6 New
Class War Lisa Mckenzie 53 0.1 New
Majority 8,386 19.1 –11.0
Turnout 43,804 65.7 –0.8
Registered electors 66,680
Conservative hold Swing –5.5
General election 2010: Chingford and Woodford Green[20][21]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Iain Duncan Smith 22,743 52.8 –0.4
Labour Cath Arakelian 9,780 22.7 –3.0
Liberal Democrats Geoffrey Seeff 7,242 16.8 –0.9
BNP Julian Leppert 1,288 3.0 New
UKIP Nick Jones 1,133 2.6 –0.2
Green Lucy Craig 650 1.5 New
Independent None Of The Above[c] 202 0.5 New
Independent Barry White 68 0.2 New
Majority 12,963 30.1 +2.6
Turnout 43,106 66.5 +3.5
Registered electors 64,831
Conservative hold Swing +1.3

Elections in the 2000s

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General election 2005: Chingford and Woodford Green[22]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Iain Duncan Smith 20,555 53.2 +5.0
Labour Simon Wright 9,914 25.7 –7.7
Liberal Democrats John Beanse 6,832 17.7 +2.2
UKIP Michael McGough 1,078 2.8 New
Independent Barry White 269 0.7 New
Majority 10,641 27.5 +12.7
Turnout 38,648 63.0 +1.5
Registered electors 61,386
Conservative hold Swing +6.4
General election 2001: Chingford and Woodford Green[23]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Iain Duncan Smith 17,834 48.2 +0.7
Labour Jessica Webb 12,347 33.4 –1.2
Liberal Democrats John Beanse 5,739 15.5 0.0
BNP Jean Griffin 1,062 2.9 +0.5
Majority 5,487 14.8 +1.9
Turnout 36,982 58.5 –12.2
Registered electors 63,252
Conservative hold Swing +1.0

Elections in the 1990s

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General election 1997: Chingford and Woodford Green[24]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Iain Duncan Smith 21,109 47.5
Labour Tommy Hutchinson 15,395 34.6
Liberal Democrats Geoffrey Seeff 6,885 15.5
BNP Alan Gould 1,059 2.4
Majority 5,714 12.9
Turnout 44,448 70.7
Registered electors 62,904
Conservative win (new seat)

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ As with all constituencies, the constituency elects one Member of Parliament (MP) by the first past the post system of election at least every five years.
  2. ^ After nominations for the 2024 general election closed, the Green Party suspended Chris Brody and withdrew all support for his campaign on 21 June 2024.[12]
  3. ^ Original name Adam Osen

References

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  1. ^ "Chingford and Woodford Green: Usual Resident Population, 2011". Neighbourhood Statistics. Office for National Statistics. Retrieved 23 February 2015.
  2. ^ "The 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituency Boundaries in England – Volume two: Constituency names, designations and composition – London". Boundary Commission for England. Retrieved 19 June 2024.
  3. ^ UK Polling Report http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/chingfordandwoodfordgreen/
  4. ^ Tribune https://tribunemag.co.uk/2019/01/the-new-marginal
  5. ^ "New Seat Details - Chingford and Woodford Green". www.electoralcalculus.co.uk. Retrieved 29 March 2024.
  6. ^ "Conservative Members of Parliament 2015". UK Political.info. Archived from the original on 8 June 2017. Retrieved 12 February 2017.
  7. ^ "Conservative Defence 2024". Election polling. Retrieved 6 March 2024.
  8. ^ Jones, Ian (22 May 2024). "General Election top target seats, by party". Evening Standard. Retrieved 22 May 2024.
  9. ^ "Chingford and Woodford Green 1997–". Parliamentary Debates (Hansard). Retrieved 2 February 2015.
  10. ^ Leigh Rayment's Historical List of MPs – Constituencies beginning with "C" (part 4)
  11. ^ "Statement of Person Nominated and Notice of Poll: Chingford and Woodford Green Constituency" (PDF). Waltham Forest Council. 7 June 2024.
  12. ^ "Green Party suspends Chingford and Woodford Green candidate". Waltham Forest Echo. 21 June 2024. Retrieved 21 June 2024.
  13. ^ "Notional results for a UK general election on 12 December 2019". Rallings & Thrasher, Professor David Denver (Scotland), Nicholas Whyte (NI) for Sky News, PA, BBC News and ITV News. UK Parliament. Retrieved 11 July 2024.
  14. ^ "Chingford & Woodford Green Parliamentary constituency". BBC News. BBC. Retrieved 23 November 2019.
  15. ^ "Chingford & Woodford Green parliamentary constituency". BBC News.
  16. ^ Baker, Carl (14 July 2017). "General Election 2017: results and analysis – Briefing paper number CBP 7979" (PDF). House of Commons Library. Retrieved 14 November 2019.
  17. ^ "Election Data 2015". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 17 October 2015. Retrieved 17 October 2015.
  18. ^ "General Election results, 7 May 2015". Walthamforest.gov.uk. 7 May 2015. Archived from the original on 2 October 2015. Retrieved 1 October 2015.
  19. ^ "Trade unionist chosen to stand at election (From East London and West Essex Guardian Series)". Guardian-series.co.uk. 5 March 2015. Retrieved 1 October 2015.
  20. ^ "Election Data 2010". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 26 July 2013. Retrieved 17 October 2015.
  21. ^ http://www.walthamforest.gov.uk/sopn-chingford.pdf. Retrieved 20 April 2010. {{cite web}}: Missing or empty |title= (help)[dead link‍]
  22. ^ "Election Data 2005". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
  23. ^ "Election Data 2001". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
  24. ^ "Election Data 1997". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.

Sources

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Parliament of the United Kingdom
Preceded by Constituency represented by the leader of the opposition
2001–2003 		Succeeded by

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