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2020 United States presidential election in Louisiana

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Main article: 2020 United States presidential election

The 2020 United States presidential election in Louisiana was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] Louisiana voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Louisiana has eight electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

2020 United States presidential election in Louisiana
← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout69.49% Increase
 
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris
Electoral vote 8 0
Popular vote 1,255,776 856,034
Percentage 58.46% 39.85%
President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

Trump won Louisiana on the day of the election 58.5% to 39.9%, a margin of 18.6%, down from 19.4% in 2016. Per exit polls by the Associated Press, his strength in Louisiana came from White born-again/Evangelical Christians as well as conservative Roman Catholics who have a high population in Louisiana, who supported Trump with 91% and 80% of their vote. On the issue of abortion, 57% of voters believed abortion should be illegal in most or all cases. As is the case in most southern states, there was a stark racial divide in voting for this election: Whites supported Trump by 77%–22% while African-Americans supported Biden by 88%–10%.[3]

Primary elections

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The primary elections were originally scheduled for April 4, 2020. On March 13, they were moved to June 20 due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic.[4] Then on April 14, they were further pushed back to July 11.[5]

Republican primary

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Incumbent President Donald Trump was essentially uncontested in the Republican primary.[6] The state has 46 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[7]

Democratic primary

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This section is an excerpt from 2020 Louisiana Democratic presidential primary § Results.[edit]
2020 Louisiana Democratic presidential primary[8]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[9]
Joe Biden 212,555 79.52 54
Bernie Sanders (withdrawn) 19,859 7.43
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) 6,426 2.40
Michael Bennet (withdrawn) 6,173 2.31
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) 4,617 1.73
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn) 4,312 1.61
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn) 2,431 0.91
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn) 2,363 0.88
Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn) 1,962 0.73
John Delaney (withdrawn) 1,877 0.70
Tom Steyer (withdrawn) 902 0.34
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) 877 0.33
Other candidates 2,932 1.10
Total 267,286 100% 54

General election

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COVID-19 pandemic social-distanced queue for early voting at New Orleans Arena, 27 October 2020

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[10] Safe R September 10, 2020
Inside Elections[11] Safe R September 4, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[12] Safe R July 14, 2020
Politico[13] Safe R September 8, 2020
RCP[14] Likely R August 3, 2020
Niskanen[15] Safe R July 26, 2020
CNN[16] Safe R August 3, 2020
The Economist[17] Safe R September 23, 2020
CBS News[18] Likely R August 16, 2020
270towin[19] Safe R August 2, 2020
ABC News[20] Safe R July 31, 2020
NPR[21] Likely R August 3, 2020
NBC News[22] Likely R August 6, 2020
538[23] Safe R November 2, 2020

Polling

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Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

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Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other/
Undecided
[a] 		Margin
270 to Win[24] October 14–27, 2020 November 3, 2020 36.0% 56.5% 7.5% Trump +20.5
FiveThirtyEight[25] until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 37.1% 57.6% 5.3% Trump +20.6
Average 36.6% 57.1% 6.4% Trump +20.5

Polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian 		Howie
Hawkins
Green 		Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios[26] Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 1,556 (LV) ± 3.5% 62%[c] 36% – – – –
Swayable[27] Oct 23 – Nov 1, 2020 378 (LV) ± 6.7% 57% 39% 4% – – –
SurveyMonkey/Axios[26] Oct 1–28, 2020 2,633 (LV) – 60% 38% – – – –
University of New Orleans[28] Oct 22, 2020 755 (LV) ± 3.6% 59% 36% – – 4% 1%
Trafalgar Group[29] Oct 4–6, 2020 1,048 (LV) ± 2.95% 54% 36% 3% – 1%[d] 6%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[26] Sep 1–30, 2020 2,475 (LV) – 60% 38% – – – 2%
Tyson Group/Consumer Energy Alliance[30][A] Sep 2–5, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 48% 42% 2% – No voters[e] 7%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[26] Aug 1–31, 2020 2,587 (LV) – 59% 38% – – – 2%
Trafalgar Group[31] Aug 13–17, 2020 1,002 (LV) ± 2.99% 54% 38% 3% – 1%[d] 4%
ALG Research/Perkins for LA[32][1] Archived November 1, 2020, at the Wayback Machine[B] Aug 6–12, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 50% 43% – – – 7%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[26] Jul 1–31, 2020 2,998 (LV) – 60% 39% – – – 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[26] Jun 8–30, 2020 1,134 (LV) – 60% 37% – – – 3%
Hypothetical polling

with Donald Trump and Generic Opponent

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Generic
Opponent 		Other Undecided
Multi-Quest International/The Hay Ride[33] Jul 19–21, 2019 601 (RV) ± 4% 50% 39% 1%[f] 10%
Market Research Insight[34] Apr 9–11, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.1% 54% 37% – 10%

with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Generic
Republican 		Generic
Democrat
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/LaPolitics[35] Aug 6–12, 2020 600 (RV) ± 3.5% 47% 43%

Results

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Statewide results

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2020 United States presidential election in Louisiana[36]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence 		1,255,776 58.46% +0.46%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris 		856,034 39.85% +1.45%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen 		21,645 1.01% −0.89%
The Birthday Party Kanye West
Michelle Tidball 		4,897 0.23% N/A
American Solidarity Brian Carroll
Amar Patel 		2,497 0.12% N/A
Becoming One Nation Jade Simmons
Claudeliah Rose 		1,626 0.08% N/A
C.U.P. President Boddie
Eric Stoneham 		1,125 0.05% N/A
Socialism and Liberation Gloria La Riva
Sunil Freeman 		987 0.05% N/A
Constitution Don Blankenship
William Mohr 		860 0.04% N/A
Freedom and Prosperity Brock Pierce
Karla Ballard 		749 0.03% N/A
Life, Liberty, Constitution Tom Hoefling
Andy Prior 		668 0.03% N/A
Unity Bill Hammons
Eric Bodenstab 		662 0.03% N/A
Socialist Workers Alyson Kennedy
Malcolm Jarrett 		536 0.02% N/A
Total votes 2,148,062 100.00%

By parish

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Parish Donald Trump
Republican 		Joe Biden
Democratic 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Acadia 22,596 79.49% 5,443 19.15% 386 1.36% 17,153 60.34% 28,425
Allen 7,574 77.21% 2,108 21.49% 128 1.30% 5,466 55.72% 9,810
Ascension 40,687 65.28% 20,399 32.73% 1,239 1.99% 20,288 32.55% 62,325
Assumption 7,271 64.72% 3,833 34.12% 131 1.16% 3,438 30.60% 11,235
Avoyelles 12,028 69.56% 4,979 28.79% 285 1.65% 7,049 40.77% 17,292
Beauregard 13,575 82.99% 2,542 15.54% 240 1.47% 11,033 67.45% 16,357
Bienville 3,891 55.19% 3,067 43.50% 92 1.31% 824 11.69% 7,050
Bossier 38,074 69.66% 15,662 28.66% 919 1.68% 22,412 41.00% 54,655
Caddo 48,021 45.77% 55,110 52.53% 1,781 1.70% -7,089 -6.76% 104,912
Calcasieu 55,066 66.62% 25,982 31.43% 1,615 1.95% 29,084 35.19% 82,663
Caldwell 3,976 83.49% 745 15.64% 41 0.87% 3,231 67.85% 4,762
Cameron 3,671 90.89% 324 8.02% 44 1.09% 3,347 82.87% 4,039
Catahoula 3,541 72.89% 1,269 26.12% 48 0.99% 2,272 46.77% 4,858
Claiborne 3,770 57.29% 2,731 41.50% 79 1.21% 1,039 15.79% 6,580
Concordia 5,550 62.87% 3,177 35.99% 101 1.14% 2,373 26.88% 8,828
DeSoto 9,112 61.83% 5,457 37.03% 167 1.14% 3,655 24.80% 14,736
East Baton Rouge 88,420 42.47% 115,577 55.52% 4,185 2.01% -27,157 -13.05% 208,182
East Carroll 1,080 35.57% 1,900 62.58% 56 1.85% -820 -27.01% 3,036
East Feliciana 6,064 57.70% 4,280 40.73% 165 1.57% 1,784 16.97% 10,509
Evangeline 11,053 71.72% 4,158 26.98% 201 1.30% 6,895 44.74% 15,412
Franklin 6,970 71.71% 2,658 27.35% 92 0.94% 4,312 44.36% 9,720
Grant 8,117 86.42% 1,157 12.32% 118 1.26% 6,960 74.10% 9,392
Iberia 21,251 64.96% 11,027 33.71% 435 1.33% 10,224 31.25% 32,713
Iberville 7,893 47.21% 8,514 50.92% 312 1.87% -621 -3.71% 16,719
Jackson 5,394 70.68% 2,143 28.08% 95 1.24% 3,251 42.60% 7,632
Jefferson 105,949 54.69% 84,477 43.60% 3,307 1.71% 21,472 11.09% 193,733
Jefferson Davis 11,423 76.97% 3,208 21.62% 210 1.41% 8,215 55.35% 14,841
Lafayette 72,519 63.32% 39,685 34.65% 2,317 2.03% 32,834 28.67% 114,521
Lafourche 36,024 79.37% 8,672 19.11% 692 1.52% 27,352 60.26% 45,388
LaSalle 6,378 90.12% 638 9.02% 61 0.86% 5,740 81.10% 7,077
Lincoln 11,311 58.68% 7,559 39.22% 405 2.10% 3,752 19.46% 19,275
Livingston 54,877 84.13% 9,249 14.18% 1,104 1.69% 45,628 69.95% 65,230
Madison 1,930 41.33% 2,654 56.83% 86 1.84% -724 -15.50% 4,670
Morehouse 6,510 56.25% 4,946 42.73% 118 1.02% 1,564 13.52% 11,574
Natchitoches 9,358 56.53% 6,896 41.66% 300 1.81% 2,462 14.87% 16,554
Orleans 26,664 15.00% 147,854 83.15% 3,301 1.85% -121,190 -68.15% 177,819
Ouachita 42,255 61.09% 25,913 37.46% 998 1.45% 16,342 23.63% 69,166
Plaquemines 7,412 67.30% 3,414 31.00% 188 1.70% 3,998 36.30% 11,014
Pointe Coupee 7,503 60.65% 4,683 37.85% 185 1.50% 2,820 22.80% 12,371
Rapides 38,347 65.14% 19,475 33.08% 1,043 1.78% 18,872 32.06% 58,865
Red River 2,413 58.40% 1,644 39.79% 75 1.81% 769 18.61% 4,132
Richland 6,607 66.47% 3,225 32.44% 108 1.09% 3,382 34.03% 9,940
Sabine 8,776 82.82% 1,731 16.34% 89 0.84% 7,045 66.48% 10,596
St. Bernard 11,179 63.34% 6,151 34.85% 320 1.81% 5,028 28.49% 17,650
St. Charles 18,233 63.94% 9,800 34.37% 484 1.69% 7,433 29.57% 28,517
St. Helena 2,714 44.07% 3,346 54.34% 98 1.59% -632 -10.27% 6,158
St. James 5,954 47.29% 6,510 51.71% 126 1.00% -556 -4.42% 12,590
St. John the Baptist 7,538 35.17% 13,582 63.37% 312 1.46% -6,044 -28.20% 21,432
St. Landry 23,171 56.30% 17,372 42.21% 611 1.49% 5,799 14.09% 41,154
St. Martin 18,203 67.32% 8,439 31.21% 396 1.47% 9,764 36.11% 27,038
St. Mary 14,811 63.88% 8,055 34.74% 320 1.38% 6,766 29.14% 23,186
St. Tammany 99,666 71.13% 37,746 26.94% 2,698 1.93% 61,920 44.19% 140,110
Tangipahoa 37,806 65.57% 18,887 32.76% 968 1.67% 18,919 32.81% 57,661
Tensas 1,197 46.87% 1,329 52.04% 28 1.09% -132 -5.17% 2,554
Terrebonne 34,339 74.26% 11,198 24.22% 703 1.52% 23,141 50.04% 46,240
Union 8,407 75.06% 2,654 23.69% 140 1.25% 5,753 51.37% 11,201
Vermilion 21,930 80.26% 5,009 18.33% 385 1.41% 16,921 61.93% 27,324
Vernon 14,107 81.69% 2,898 16.78% 263 1.53% 11,209 64.91% 17,268
Washington 13,307 68.20% 5,970 30.59% 236 1.21% 7,337 37.61% 19,513
Webster 11,830 64.94% 6,172 33.88% 214 1.18% 5,658 31.06% 18,216
West Baton Rouge 7,684 54.51% 6,200 43.98% 213 1.51% 1,484 10.53% 14,097
West Carroll 4,317 85.45% 710 14.05% 25 0.50% 3,607 71.40% 5,052
West Feliciana 3,863 61.63% 2,298 36.66% 107 1.71% 1,565 24.97% 6,268
Winn 4,619 74.20% 1,543 24.79% 63 1.01% 3,076 49.41% 6,225
Totals 1,255,776 58.46% 856,034 39.85% 36,252 1.69% 399,742 18.61% 2,148,062
 
Swing by parish
Legend
  •   Democratic — +5-7.5%
  •   Democratic — +2.5-5%
  •   Democratic — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5-5%
  •   Republican — +5-7.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5-10%

By congressional district

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Trump won 5 of the 6 congressional districts in Louisiana.

District Trump Biden Representative
1st 68% 30.1% Steve Scalise
2nd 23% 75.3% Cedric Richmond
3rd 68.1% 30.2% Clay Higgins
4th 61.5% 37% Mike Johnson
5th 64.5% 34.1% Ralph Abraham
6th 63.8% 34.4% Garret Graves

Notes

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  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ a b c Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  4. ^ a b "Another Party Candidate" with 1%
  5. ^ "Refused" with no voters
  6. ^ "Refused" with 1%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ The Consumer Energy Alliance is a pro-Keystone XL lobbying group
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by Adrians Perkins' campaign in the 2020 United States Senate election in Louisiana

See also

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References

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  1. ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  2. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. ^ "Louisiana Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  4. ^ "Louisiana postpones Democratic primary over coronavirus, the first state to do so". CNBC. March 13, 2020.
  5. ^ "Louisiana presidential primary pushed back again, to July 11". ABC News. April 14, 2020.
  6. ^ "Donald Trump, Joe Biden win Louisiana's presidential primary". Associated Press. July 11, 2020.
  7. ^ "Louisiana Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved June 23, 2020.
  8. ^ "Results for Election Date: 7/11/2020". Louisiana Secretary of State. Retrieved October 13, 2020.
  9. ^ "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved July 11, 2020.
  10. ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  11. ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  12. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  13. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  14. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  15. ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
  16. ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  17. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  18. ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  19. ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  20. ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  21. ^ Montanaro, Domenico (August 3, 2020). "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  22. ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. August 6, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  23. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  24. ^ "Louisiana 2020 Presidential Election Polls: Biden vs. Trump - 270toWin". 270toWin.com.
  25. ^ Best, Ryan; Bycoffe, Aaron; King, Ritchie; Mehta, Dhrumil; Wiederkehr, Anna (June 28, 2018). "Louisiana : President: general election Polls". FiveThirtyEight.
  26. ^ a b c d e f "Candidate preference". www.tableau.com.
  27. ^ "Swayable". Archived from the original on November 27, 2020.
  28. ^ "THE 2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN LOUISIANA | The University of New Orleans". www.uno.edu.
  29. ^ "TRF LA Pres '20 Oct Poll Report.pdf". Google Docs.
  30. ^ "Tyson Group/Consumer Energy Alliance" (PDF).
  31. ^ "LA '20 Pres Poll Report.pdf". Google Docs.
  32. ^ "ALG Research/Perkins for LA" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on November 1, 2020.
  33. ^ "Multi-Quest International/The Hay Ride" (PDF).
  34. ^ "Market Research Insight" (PDF).
  35. ^ Grace, Stephanie (July 31, 2020). "Grace Notes: How does Louisiana feel about President Trump? New poll shows a deep divide". NOLA.com.
  36. ^ "Official Election Results - Presidential Electors". Louisiana Secretary of State. Retrieved November 19, 2020.

Further reading

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