2016 Oregon gubernatorial special election
(Redirected from 2016 Oregon gubernatorial election)
The 2016 Oregon gubernatorial special election took place on November 8, 2016, to elect the Governor of Oregon, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections for the U.S. Senate and U.S. House of Representatives, other gubernatorial elections and various state and local elections.
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  Brown: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Pierce: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% No data | ||||||||||||||||||||
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The election determined who would fill the remaining two years of the term of Democratic governor John Kitzhaber, who was re-elected in 2014 and resigned in February 2015. Incumbent Democratic governor Kate Brown, who as Oregon Secretary of State succeeded to the governorship, ran for election to the office. In primary elections held on May 17, Brown easily captured the Democratic nomination, and the Republicans picked Salem oncologist Bud Pierce.
Brown won the election and became the first openly LGBT person elected to a term as governor in U.S. history. This election was the first time since 1990 that a woman was elected Governor of Oregon. As of 2024, it was also the last gubernatorial special election in the U.S., excluding recall elections.
Democratic primary
editCandidates
editDeclared
edit- Julian Bell, critical care and pulmonary medicine specialist[1]
- Kate Brown, incumbent governor[2]
- Chet Chance, professional driver[3]
- Kevin M. Forsythe, Walmart employee[3]
- Steve Johnson, health worker[3][4]
- Dave Stauffer, environmental engineer[3]
Declined
edit- Brad Avakian, State Labor Commissioner (running for secretary of state)[5][6]
- Tina Kotek, Speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives[5]
- Ted Wheeler, state treasurer (running for Mayor of Portland)[5][7]
Results
edit
Brown
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Kate Brown (incumbent) | 494,890 | 83.03 | |
| Democratic | Julian Bell | 49,313 | 8.27 | |
| Democratic | Dave Stauffer | 16,108 | 2.70 | |
| Democratic | Steve Johnson | 13,363 | 2.24 | |
| Democratic | Kevin M. Forsythe | 10,147 | 1.70 | |
| Democratic | Chet Chance | 5,636 | 0.95 | |
| Democratic | Write-ins | 6,595 | 1.11 | |
| Total votes | 596,052 | 100.00 | ||
Republican primary
editCandidates
editDeclared
edit- Allen Alley, former chairman of the Oregon Republican Party, nominee for Oregon State Treasurer in 2008 and candidate for governor in 2010[9]
- Bruce Cuff, real estate broker and candidate for governor in 2014[10]
- Bob Forthan, perennial candidate[10]
- Bob Niemeyer, engineering company owner and candidate for OR-01 in 2014[11]
- Bud Pierce, physician[12][13][14][15]
Declined
edit- Shane Bemis, Mayor of Gresham[16]
- Knute Buehler, state representative and nominee for secretary of state in 2012[17][18]
- Sid Leiken, Lane County Commissioner, former mayor of Springfield and candidate for Oregon's 4th congressional district in 2010 (running for secretary of state)[19]
- Julie Parrish, state representative[16][20]
- Dennis Richardson, former state representative and nominee for governor in 2014 (running for secretary of state)[21]
- Sherrie Sprenger, state representative[22]
- Monica Wehby, pediatric neurosurgeon and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2014[23]
Polling
edit| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Allen Alley |
Bruce Cuff |
Bob Forthan |
Bob Neimeyer |
Bud Pierce |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DHM Research[24] | May 6–9, 2016 | 324 | ± 5.7% | 22% | 3% | 1% | 5% | 25% | 44% |
Results
edit
Pierce
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
Alley
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | William C. Pierce | 171,158 | 47.66 | |
| Republican | Allen Alley | 103,388 | 28.79 | |
| Republican | Bruce Cuff | 41,598 | 11.58 | |
| Republican | Bob Niemeyer | 35,669 | 9.93 | |
| Republican | Bob Forthan | 4,290 | 1.19 | |
| Republican | Write-ins | 3,020 | 0.84 | |
| Total votes | 359,123 | 100.00 | ||
Independent Party primary
editThe Independent Party of Oregon officially qualified as a major party on August 17, 2015.[25]
Candidates
editDeclared
editDeclined
edit- Betsy Johnson, Democratic state senator[26]
Results
edit
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independent Party | Cliff Thomason | 9,806 | 34.89 | |
| Independent Party | Patrick Barney | 6,840 | 24.34 | |
| Independent Party | Write-ins | 11,460 | 40.77 | |
| Total votes | 28,106 | 100.00 | ||
Minor parties
edit- Aaron Donald Auer (Constitution Party), candidate for governor in 2014[27][28]
- James Foster (Libertarian Party), candidate for OR-01 in 2014[27][29]
General election
editDebates
edit- Complete video of debate, October 13, 2016 - C-SPAN
- Complete video of debate, October 20, 2016 - C-SPAN
Predictions
edit| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[30] | Likely D | August 12, 2016 |
| Daily Kos[31] | Safe D | November 8, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[32] | Safe D | November 3, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[33] | Safe D | November 7, 2016 |
| Real Clear Politics[34] | Likely D | November 1, 2016 |
| Governing[35] | Safe D | October 27, 2016 |
Polling
editGraphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Kate Brown (D) |
Bud Pierce (R) |
Other/Undecided [a] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Clear Politics[36] | October 4–29, 2016 | October 29, 2016 | 45.5% | 35.5% | 19.0% | Brown +10.0% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kate Brown (D) |
Bud Pierce (R) |
Cliff Thomason (I) |
James Foster (L) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey[37] | November 1–7, 2016 | 1,595 | ± 4.6% | 56% | 41% | — | — | — | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey[38] | October 31 – November 6, 2016 | 1,483 | ± 4.6% | 56% | 40% | — | — | — | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey[39] | October 28 – November 3, 2016 | 1,150 | ± 4.6% | 56% | 40% | — | — | — | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey[40] | October 27 – November 2, 2016 | 934 | ± 4.6% | 55% | 41% | — | — | — | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey[41] | October 26 – November 1, 2016 | 809 | ± 4.6% | 54% | 41% | — | — | — | 5% |
| SurveyMonkey[42] | October 25–31, 2016 | 743 | ± 4.6% | 54% | 42% | — | — | — | 4% |
| FOX 12 Oregon/DHM Research[43] | October 24–29, 2016 | 504 | ± 4.4% | 42% | 33% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 15% |
| Clout Research (R)[44] | October 20–21, 2016 | 928 | ± 3.2% | 45% | 43% | — | — | 6% | 6% |
| KGW Oregonian/Riley Research[45] | October 4–14, 2016 | 608 | ± 4.0% | 48% | 34% | — | — | — | 13% |
| Oregon Public Broadcasting/DHM Research[46] | October 6–13, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 33% | 4% | 3% | — | 12% |
| KATU-TV/SurveyUSA[47] | October 10–12, 2016 | 654 | ± 3.9% | 46% | 42% | — | — | 4% | 8% |
| iCitizen[48] | September 2–7, 2016 | 610 | ± 4.0% | 44% | 27% | 3% | 3% | — | 23% |
| KATU-TV/DHM Research[49] | September 1–6, 2016 | 517 | ± 4.3% | 43% | 35% | — | — | — | 18% |
| Clout Research (R)[50] | July 9–13, 2016 | 701 | ± 3.7% | 43% | 42% | 5% | 2% | — | 7% |
| iCitizen[51] | June 23–27, 2016 | 555 | ± 4.0% | 42% | 35% | — | — | — | 23% |
| Action Solutions[52]→ | June 1–2, 2016 | 600 | ± 5.7% | 39% | 37% | — | — | — | 24% |
| Moore Information[53] | April 20, 2015 | 500 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 27% | — | — | — | 28% |
→ Indicates an internal poll conducted on behalf of Bud Pierce.
Hypothetical polling
with Allen Alley
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kate Brown (D) |
Allen Alley (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moore Information[53] | April 20, 2015 | 500 | ± 4.0% | 47% | 32% | — | 21% |
with Shane Bemis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kate Brown (D) |
Shane Bemis (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moore Information[53] | April 20, 2015 | 500 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 26% | — | 28% |
with Dennis Richardson
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kate Brown (D) |
Dennis Richardson (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moore Information[53] | April 20, 2015 | 500 | ± 4.0% | 48% | 41% | — | 12% |
Results
edit| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Kate Brown (incumbent) | 985,027 | 50.62% | +0.73% | |
| Republican | Bud Pierce | 845,609 | 43.45% | −0.68% | |
| Independent Party | Cliff Thomason | 47,481 | 2.44% | N/A | |
| Libertarian | James Foster | 45,191 | 2.32% | +0.83% | |
| Constitution | Aaron Donald Auer | 19,400 | 1.00% | −0.08% | |
| Write-in | 3,338 | 0.17% | -0.28% | ||
| Total votes | 1,946,046 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
editCounties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
editBy congressional district
editBrown won 3 of 5 congressional districts. Pierce won the other two, including one that elected a Democrat.
| District | Kate Brown |
Bud Pierce |
Elected Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 53.68% | 40.52% | Suzanne Bonamici |
| 2nd | 38.14% | 55.10% | Greg Walden |
| 3rd | 68.44% | 26.31% | Earl Blumenauer |
| 4th | 46.87% | 46.41% | Peter DeFazio |
| 5th | 45.46% | 49.43% | Kurt Schrader |
Notes
edit- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
References
edit- ^ Mortensen, Camilla (October 1, 2015). "Climate Change Fuels a Run For Governor". Eugene Weekly. Archived from the original on October 5, 2015. Retrieved October 6, 2015.
- ^ Theriault, Denis C. (September 18, 2015) "Kate Brown makes clear she's running for governor", The Oregonian. Retrieved September 18, 2015.
- ^ a b c d e f Kullgren, Ian (March 9, 2016). "Election 2016: Who's running for office in Oregon? Portland? We've got your list right here". The Oregonian. Retrieved April 7, 2016.
- ^ "Steve Johnson 2016 | Home". sbjforgovernor.org. Archived from the original on March 31, 2016. Retrieved June 6, 2022.
- ^ a b c Topaz, Jonathan (February 13, 2015). "Meet Kate Brown". Politico. Retrieved October 6, 2015.
- ^ Theriault, Denis C. (October 6, 2015). "Oregon labor commissioner announces run for secretary of state". The Oregonian. Retrieved October 6, 2015.
- ^ Schmidt, Brad (September 9, 2015). "Ted Wheeler: 'I'm running for mayor of Portland'". The Oregonian. Retrieved October 6, 2015.
- ^ a b c "May 17, 2016 Primary Election Results". Oregon Secretary of State. Retrieved June 18, 2016.
- ^ Theriault, Denis C. (March 7, 2016). "Shakeup in governor's race: Allen Alley wants Republican nomination". The Oregonian. Retrieved March 7, 2016.
- ^ a b Friedman, Gordeon (March 2, 2016). "Report: Allen Alley running for Oregon governor". KGW. Archived from the original on March 3, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2016.
- ^ Theriault, Denis C. (September 29, 2015). "Another Republican has filed for the 2016 Oregon governor's race". The Oregonian. Retrieved October 6, 2015.
- ^ "About Our Clinic". Hematology Oncology of Salem. Archived from the original on July 15, 2011. Retrieved January 28, 2016.
- ^ Gray, Chris (September 24, 2015). "The Lund Report". The Lund Report. Retrieved January 28, 2016.
- ^ Kullgren, Ian K. (March 16, 2015). "Republican doctor from Salem contemplates gubernatorial run". The Oregonian. Retrieved March 16, 2015.
- ^ "Kate Brown confirms she'll run for governor". The Associated Press. September 18, 2015. Retrieved September 18, 2015.
- ^ a b Forrester, Steve (April 19, 2015). "Middle-ground Republican could give Brown a race". The Daily Astorian. Retrieved April 21, 2015.
- ^ Anderson, Taylor W. (July 13, 2015). "Buehler says he may run for Oregon governor in 2016". The Bulletin. Retrieved July 13, 2015.
- ^ Theriault, Denis C. (August 25, 2015). "Knute Buehler says he won't run for governor, wants to stay in House". The Oregonian. Retrieved October 6, 2015.
- ^ Glucklich, Elon (June 30, 2015). "Lane County Commissioner Sid Leiken out of Oregon governor's race, seeks Secretary of State post instead". The Register-Guard. Archived from the original on July 16, 2015. Retrieved July 13, 2015.
- ^ Hubbard, Saul (April 21, 2015). "GOP Rep. Julie Parrish announces that she won't run for statewide office in 2016, despite speculation that she will #orleg #orpol". Twitter. Retrieved April 21, 2015.
- ^ Anderson, Taylor W. (August 28, 2015). "Dennis Richardson 'not interested in running' in 2016". The Bend Bulletin. Retrieved October 6, 2015.
- ^ Theriault, Denis C. (April 23, 2015). "Election 2016: Linn County Republican says she's been 'approached' for governor's race". The Oregonian. Retrieved April 23, 2015.
- ^ "Monica Wehby says she won't run for governor in 2016 after all". OregonLive. September 2, 2015.
- ^ DHM Research Archived 2016-05-19 at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Mapes, Jeff (August 17, 2015). "Independent Party of Oregon qualifies as a major party". The Oregonian. Retrieved August 18, 2015.
- ^ Borrud, Hillary (August 16, 2015). "Johnson tour sparks speculation she's running for governor". East Oregonian. Retrieved August 18, 2015.
- ^ a b "Candidate Filings" (pdf). Retrieved July 30, 2016.
- ^ "Aaron Donald Auer". Constitution Party of Oregon. Archived from the original on August 16, 2016. Retrieved July 30, 2016.
- ^ "James Foster". Libertarian Party of Oregon. Archived from the original on May 18, 2016. Retrieved July 30, 2016.
- ^ "2016 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
- ^ "Elections 2015-16". Daily Kos. Retrieved October 15, 2018.[permanent dead link]
- ^ "Gubernatorial Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
- ^ "Our Final 2016 picks". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on October 15, 2018. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
- ^ "2016 Election Maps - 2016 Governor Races". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
- ^ "2016 Governors Races Ratings & News". Governing Magazine. Archived from the original on October 27, 2016. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
- ^ Real Clear Politics
- ^ SurveyMonkey
- ^ SurveyMonkey
- ^ SurveyMonkey
- ^ SurveyMonkey
- ^ SurveyMonkey
- ^ SurveyMonkey
- ^ FOX 12 Oregon/DHM Research Archived 2016-11-02 at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Clout Research (R)
- ^ KGW Oregonian/Riley Research Archived 2016-10-20 at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Oregon Public Broadcasting/DHM Research Archived 2016-10-18 at the Wayback Machine
- ^ KATU-TV/SurveyUSA
- ^ iCitizen
- ^ KATU-TV/DHM Research
- ^ Clout Research (R)
- ^ iCitizen
- ^ Action Solutions Archived 2016-06-22 at the Wayback Machine
- ^ a b c d Moore Information Archived 2015-04-28 at the Wayback Machine
- ^ "November 8, 2016, General Election Abstract of Votes". Oregon Secretary of State. Retrieved January 3, 2017.
External links
editNominees
- Aaron Donald Auer (C) for Governor Archived 2016-08-16 at the Wayback Machine
- Kate Brown (D) for Governor
- James Foster (L) for Governor
- Bud Pierce (R) for Governor
- Cliff Thomason (I) for Governor Archived 2016-05-04 at the Wayback Machine
Primary candidates