The 2008 United States Senate election in South Dakota was held on November 4, 2008. Primary elections were held on June 3, 2008.[1] Incumbent Senator Tim Johnson won re-election to a third term. As of 2024, this election alongside the simultaneous House race is the last time a Democrat won a statewide election in South Dakota. This is the last time that a Senate candidate and a presidential candidate of different political parties simultaneously won South Dakota.
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  Johnson: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Dykstra: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Tie: 50% | |||||||||||||||||
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Background
editIn 2002, Tim Johnson was re-elected by a narrow margin of 527 votes, the closest senate contest in the country that cycle.[2] Two years later, Republicans flipped the state's other senate seat, ousting then Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle.[3] Heading into 2008, the seat was poised to be a heavily contested one, and Republicans saw as a strong potential flip.[4]
But the race would be upended on December 13, 2006, when Senator Johnson was hospitalized with what was later revealed to be a brain hemorrhage.[5][6] This immediately shook up the state of the race, and dashed much of the discourse surrounding it for a time.[7] On the Democratic side, there was uncertainty if Johnson would be able to return to the Senate, and speculation surrounded whether Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin, the state's at-large Congresswoman, would run in his place.[8][9]
However, by all accounts, Johnson still intended to run for re-election as long as his health kept improving, and prominent Democrats such as Harry Reid and Ted Kennedy held fundraisers for Johnson.[9] After a 9-month absence, Johnson returned to the Senate in August 2007, and was back to his duties as Senator in September 2007.[10] One month later, Johnson ended all speculation, by announcing his bid for re-election.[11]
Republican primary
editCandidates
edit- Joel Dykstra, South Dakota State Representative
- Charles Gonyo
- Sam Kephart
Declined
edit- Dennis Daugaard, incumbent Lieutenant Governor since 2003[12]
- Dusty Johnson, member of the South Dakota Public Utilities Commission[13][14]
- Mike Rounds, incumbent Governor since 2003[12]
Campaign
editRepublican efforts for recruitment were frustrated by Johnson's situation and the sympathy boost that came with it.[15] Significant hope was given to the possibility of recruiting second term governor Mike Rounds to run against Johnson, but Rounds showed little interest.[12] Lt. Governor Dennis Daugaard, who was wealthy and could self fund, was also sought, but he was planning a gubernatorial bid for 2010.[12] On July 5, 2007, Joel Dykstra, a state representative, entered but he was seen as having long odds and as not a top-tier candidate.[16][17]
Results
edit| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Joel Dykstra | 34,598 | 65.74% | |
| Republican | Sam Kephart | 13,047 | 24.79% | |
| Republican | Charles Gonyo | 4,983 | 9.47% | |
| Total votes | 52,628 | 100.00% | ||
General election
editCandidates
edit- Tim Johnson (D), incumbent U.S. Senator
- Joel Dykstra (R), South Dakota State Representative
Campaign
editAlready a well-regarded figure, following health problems, Johnson became more popular. "South Dakota is a very kind state," Steve Jarding, a Harvard political scientist who ran Johnson's campaign, said. "People were rooting for Tim—Democrats, Republicans, independents—they wanted him to be O.K.[4]" He was also seen a pragmatic moderate. He received endorsements from the Republican Mayor of Sioux Falls, Dave Munson, and the NRA Political Victory Fund.[19] Johnson also received the endorsement of former Senator Larry Pressler, who Johnson beat in 1996.[20][21]
Dykstra argued that Johnson voted 80% of the time with U.S. Senator Barack Obama and 90% with U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. In response, Johnson pointed out his votes on the confirmation of U.S. Supreme Court justices John Roberts/Samuel Alito, against flag burning, in favor for the Iraq War, Patriot Act, a ban on partial birth abortion, etc.[22]
Dykstra tried to turn the race around by comparing Johnson to Larry Pressler in 1996, and that Dykstra would work better with the state's other senator.[23] Dykstra also focused on high gas prices, highlighting his experience in the energy industry, and a focus on alternate energy sources.[24] But Johnson's popularity and sympathy proved to be the main factor, giving him a large amount of sympathy vote.[25]
Predictions
edit| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[26] | Likely D | October 23, 2008 |
| CQ Politics[27] | Safe D | October 31, 2008 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[28] | Safe D | November 2, 2008 |
| Real Clear Politics[29] | Safe D | November 4, 2008 |
Polling
edit| Poll Source | Dates administered | Tim Johnson (D) |
Joel Dykstra (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports[30] | March 4, 2008 | 63% | 28% |
| Rasmussen Reports[31] | July 15, 2008 | 60% | 38% |
Results
editWhile John McCain won the state comfortably, Johnson easily won re-election to a third term, losing in only four counties. His friend and fellow Democrat, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin easily won re-election to South Dakota's at-large congressional district.[32]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Tim Johnson (incumbent) | 237,889 | 62.49% | +12.87% | |
| Republican | Joel Dykstra | 142,784 | 37.51% | −11.96% | |
| Total votes | 380,673 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
edit- Union (Largest city: Dakota Dunes)
- Hutchinson (largest city: Parkston)
- Lincoln (largest city: Sioux Falls)
- Turner (largest city: Parker)
- Butte (largest city: Belle Fourche)
- Meade (largest city: Sturgis)
- Custer (largest city: Custer)
- Pennington (largest city: Rapid City)
- Lawrence (largest city: Spearfish)
- Fall River (largest city: Hot Springs)
- Stanley (largest city: Fort Pierre)
- Jackson (largest city: Kadoka)
- Potter (largest city: Gettysburg)
- Sully (largest city: Onida)
- Hughes (largest city: Pierre)
- Hyde (largest city: Highmore)
- Walworth (largest city: Mobridge)
- Campbell (largest city: Herreid)
- McPherson (largest city: Eureka)
- Tripp (largest city: Winner)
- Gregory (largest city: Gregory)
- Hamlin (largest city: Estelline)
- Davison (largest city: Mitchell)
- Douglas (largest city: Armour)
- Hanson (largest city: Alexandria)
See also
editReferences
edit- ^ Horrigan, Marie (March 18, 2008). "Sen. Johnson Rated Safe as Recruiting Woes Hurt GOP". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on November 8, 2008. Retrieved November 7, 2008.
- ^ Alvarez, Lizette (November 7, 2002). "THE 2002 ELECTIONS: SOUTH DAKOTA; Democrat Leads Slightly In Senate Race". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on April 12, 2013. Retrieved August 31, 2023.
- ^ "CNN.com - Thune unseats Senate minority leader Daschle - Nov 3, 2004". www.cnn.com. November 3, 2004. Archived from the original on March 18, 2005. Retrieved August 31, 2023.
- ^ a b Johnson, Dirk; Herszenhorn, David (October 23, 2008). "In South Dakota Race, Gauging the Impact of a Senator's Health". The New York Times. Archived from the original on August 10, 2018. Retrieved August 31, 2023.
- ^ Zernike, Kate (December 13, 2006). "South Dakota Senator Is Hospitalized". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on January 25, 2021. Retrieved August 31, 2023.
- ^ ABC News. "Sen. Tim Johnson's Second Chance at Life and Work". ABC News. Archived from the original on September 6, 2007. Retrieved August 31, 2023.
- ^ Staff, C. Q. (January 26, 2007). "Democrats Strategize to Hold On to 12 Senate Seats Up in 2008 - New York Times". archive.nytimes.com. Archived from the original on August 31, 2023. Retrieved August 31, 2023.
- ^ Rothenberg, Stuart (September 7, 2007). "In 2008 Election Cycle, How Bad Is Bad for Senate Republicans?". Roll Call. Archived from the original on January 22, 2021. Retrieved August 31, 2023.
- ^ a b Staff, C. Q.; Quarterly, Congressional (April 10, 2007). "Johnson's Political Future Stirs Speculation — And Fundraising - New York Times". archive.nytimes.com. Archived from the original on August 31, 2023. Retrieved August 31, 2023.
- ^ Hearn, Josephine (September 5, 2007). "Johnson returns, deeply changed by illness". POLITICO. Archived from the original on November 27, 2021. Retrieved August 31, 2023.
- ^ Davey, Monica (October 20, 2007). "Recuperating Senator Says He'll Seek Re-election". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on June 5, 2015. Retrieved August 31, 2023.
- ^ a b c d Drucker, David M. (October 19, 2007). "Johnson to Seek Third Senate Term". Roll Call. Archived from the original on October 27, 2020. Retrieved August 31, 2023.
- ^ Roll Call Staff (May 10, 2007). "Herseth's Path to Another Term a Little Less Dusty". Roll Call. Archived from the original on September 27, 2020. Retrieved August 31, 2023.
- ^ Blake, Aaron (July 5, 2007). "Republican enters race for ill senator's seat". The Hill. Archived from the original on August 31, 2023. Retrieved August 31, 2023.
- ^ Drucker, David M. (May 21, 2007). "South Dakota '08 Jockeying Begins". Roll Call. Archived from the original on February 28, 2021. Retrieved August 31, 2023.
- ^ Horrigan, Marie; Quarterly, Congressional. "South Dakota Sen. Johnson Draws Foe With Record — But Not Star Power - New York Times". archive.nytimes.com. Archived from the original on August 31, 2023. Retrieved August 31, 2023.
- ^ Judis, John (August 31, 2007). "Red Dawn: 2008 Will be a Great Election for Democrats in the Senate". Carnegie Endowment for National Peace. Archived from the original on May 2, 2023. Retrieved August 31, 2023.
- ^ "2008 South Dakota Official Primary Election Results". June 3, 2008. Archived from the original on May 15, 2011. Retrieved May 18, 2011.
- ^ "Joel Dykstra on Gun Control Republican Challenger". On The Issues. Archived from the original on July 25, 2008. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
- ^ Kraushaar, Josh (October 27, 2008). "Tim Johnson endorsed by former GOP rival - - POLITICO.com". www.politico.com. Archived from the original on April 25, 2015. Retrieved August 29, 2023.
- ^ Woster, Kevin (October 26, 2008). "Pressler endorses Sen. Johnson, the man who beat him in 1996". Rapid City Journal. Archived from the original on August 29, 2023. Retrieved August 29, 2023.
- ^ Kevin Woster (October 19, 2008). "Johnson campaigns on cash, Dykstra wants change". Rapid City Journal. Lee Enterprises. Archived from the original on August 15, 2010. Retrieved August 2, 2023.(subscription required)
- ^ "Dykstra compares his race to Johnson vs. Pressler race". Mitchell Republic. August 1, 2008. Archived from the original on August 31, 2023. Retrieved August 31, 2023.
- ^ Hetland, Cara (June 4, 2008). "S.D. Sen. Tim Johnson has a Republican challenger". MPR News. Archived from the original on December 5, 2021. Retrieved August 31, 2023.
- ^ ABC News. "S.D. Democrats pin hopes on popular senator". ABC News. Archived from the original on December 5, 2009. Retrieved August 31, 2023.
- ^ "2008 Senate Race ratings for October 23, 2008". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved April 1, 2021.
- ^ Race Ratings Chart: Senate Archived October 28, 2010, at the Wayback Machine CQ Politics
- ^ "2008 Senate ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved April 1, 2021.
- ^ "2008 RCP Averages & Senate Results". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved August 31, 2021.
- ^ Rasmussen Reports
- ^ Rasmussen Reports
- ^ "South Dakota - Election Results 2008 - The New York Times". www.nytimes.com. Archived from the original on February 1, 2017. Retrieved August 31, 2023.
- ^ "Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives".
External links
edit- Elections & Voter Registration from the South Dakota Secretary of State
- U.S. Congress candidates for South Dakota at Project Vote Smart
- South Dakota, U.S. Senate from CQ Politics
- South Dakota U.S. Senate from OurCampaigns.com
- South Dakota Senate race from 2008 Race Tracker
- Dykstra (R) vs Johnson (D-i) graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com
- Official campaign websites
- Joel Dykstra, Republican nominee
- Tim Johnson, Democratic incumbent nominee