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2004 United States presidential election in New York

Main article: 2004 United States presidential election

The 2004 United States presidential election in New York took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 31 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

2004 United States presidential election in New York
← 2000 November 2, 2004 2008 →
Turnout62.44% (Increase 1.74 pp)
 
Nominee John Kerry George W. Bush
Party Democratic Republican
Alliance Working Families Conservative
Home state Massachusetts Texas
Running mate John Edwards Dick Cheney
Electoral vote 31 0
Popular vote 4,314,280 2,962,567
Percentage 58.37% 40.08%
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

New York was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by an 18.3% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Kerry would win, or a safe blue state. The last Republican presidential nominee to have carried the state of New York was Ronald Reagan in 1984 and the last one to even be competitive was Bush's father George H. W. Bush in 1988.

As expected, Kerry won the state of New York in a landslide. Statewide elections in New York are dominated by the overwhelmingly Democratic stronghold of New York City, the most populated city in the United States where around 40% of the state's population lives. Kerry received around 75% of the vote in the city alone. New York gave Kerry his fourth largest statewide margin of victory behind Kerry's home state of Massachusetts, and neighboring Rhode Island and Vermont.

Although the state was left uncontested by both candidates, Bush did manage to significantly improve on his performance from 2000, reducing his margin of defeat from 25% to 18%; this is often attributed to increased support for Bush in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks.

This would be the last presidential election in which the Republican candidate received over 40% of the vote until Donald Trump got 43.3% of the vote in the state in 2024, lost by less than a 20% margin in New York State and carry Rockland County. As of the 2024 United States presidential election, Bush remains the last Republican candidate to win Dutchess Counties. Bush was also the first president elected twice without ever carrying New York.

Primaries

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Campaign

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President George W. Bush at Ground Zero, 2001.

Predictions

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There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[1]

Source Ranking
D.C. Political Report Solid D
Cook Political Report Solid D
Research 2000 Solid D
Zogby International Likely D
Washington Post Likely D
Washington Dispatch Likely D
Washington Times Solid D
The New York Times Solid D
CNN Likely D
Newsweek Solid D
Associated Press Solid D
Rasmussen Reports Likely D

Polling

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Kerry won every single pre-election poll, and all but one with a double-digit margin and with at least 49%. The final 3-poll average showed Kerry leading 55% to 38%.[2]

Fundraising

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Bush raised $11,994,227.[3] Kerry raised $27,733,309.[4]

Advertising and visits

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Neither campaign advertised or visited the state during the fall campaign.[5][6]

Analysis

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The voters of the five boroughs of New York City were the main force responsible for Kerry's decisive victory in the state. Kerry won New York City by an overwhelming margin, taking 1,828,015 votes to Bush's 587,534, a 74.99%-to-24.10% victory. Excluding New York City's votes, John Kerry still would have carried New York State, but by a reduced margin, taking 2,486,265 votes to Bush's 2,375,033 votes, a 51.14%-to-48.86% victory.

The New York City suburbs consist of Long Island's Nassau and Suffolk counties as well as Westchester and Rockland counties. Traditionally Republican, this area went clearly Democratic through the past few decades, with the arrival of people from New York City. However, in this area where many voters commute to Manhattan, Bush did better than expected. Although he clearly lost these counties to Gore in 2000 with 39.55% to 56.42%, or 655,665 votes to 935,456, he only lost them by a close 46.13% to 52.30% to Kerry. While Bush won 167,397 more votes than in 2000, Kerry lost 2,437. This can be mainly explained by the concerns of suburban moderate voters about terrorism, an issue about which they trusted Bush more than Kerry. Exit polls showed 49% of voters in New York trusted Bush to handle terrorism, as opposed to 42% for Kerry.[7]

Upstate New York region, including all of the counties that are not part of New York City or its suburbs, is the least liberal region of the three. Its politics are very similar to those of Ohio or Pennsylvania, both key swing states and sharing conservative rural areas. Bush expanded his margin in New York City's northern exurban counties Dutchess, Orange and Putnam from 2000. Despite this, Senator Kerry still managed a slim victory in Upstate New York, with 1,553,246 votes to 1,551,971 for Bush. This was largely due to a Democratic tidal wave in the region's four largest cities--Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse and Albany. Kerry also ran strongly in college dominated Tompkins County and two counties with an influx of former New York City residents moving to vacation homes, Ulster County and Columbia County.

According to exit polls, Senator Kerry won both males (56%–42%) and Females (60%–40%) over the president.[8] President Bush narrowly carried white voters in New York 50% to 49%.[9] This was not enough to overcome Senator Kerry carrying African Americans 90% to 9%, Latinos 75% to 24% and Asians 72% to 27%.[10] Kerry won all age groups over President Bush, with his closest wins being 52% to 47% among those aged 45–59 and 53% to 47% among those 60 and older.[11] Kerry also won all income groups and all levels of education.[12]

Results

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2004 United States presidential election in New York[13]
Party Candidate Popular votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic John Kerry 4,180,755 56.57%
Working Families John Kerry 133,525 1.81%
Total John F. Kerry 4,314,280 58.37% 31
Republican George W. Bush 2,806,993 37.98%
Conservative George W. Bush 155,574 2.10%
Total George W. Bush (incumbent) 2,962,567 40.08% 0
Independence Ralph Nader 84,247 1.14%
Peace and Justice Ralph Nader 15,626 0.21%
Total Ralph Nader 99,873 1.35% 0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik 11,607 0.16% 0
Socialist Workers Roger Calero 2,405 0.03% 0
Constitution (write-in) Michael Peroutka 363 >0.01% 0
Green (write-in) David Cobb 138 >0.01% 0
Independent (write-in) John J. Kennedy 8 >0.01% 0
Independent (write-in) Michael Halpin 4 >0.01% 0
Socialist Equality Bill Van Auken 4 >0.01% 0
Totals 7,391,036 100% 31
Voter turnout: 62.44%

New York City results

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2004 presidential election in New York City Manhattan The Bronx Brooklyn Queens Staten Island Total
Democratic-
Working Families 		John F. Kerry 526,765 283,994 514,973 433,835 68,448 1,828,015 74.97%
82.06% 82.80% 74.86% 71.66% 42.74%
Republican-
Conservative 		George W. Bush 107,405 56,701 167,149 165,954 90,325 587,534 24.10%
16.73% 16.53% 24.30% 27.41% 56.40%
Independence-
Peace and Justice 		Ralph Nader 6,023 1,973 4,859 4,535 1,190 18,580 0.76%
0.94% 0.58% 0.71% 0.75% 0.74%
Libertarian Michael Badnarik 1,276 140 570 561 134 2,007 0.11%
0.20% 0.04% 0.08% 0.09% 0.08%
Socialist Workers Roger Calero 278 121 229 177 29 834 0.03%
0.04% 0.04% 0.03% 0.03% 0.02%
Others 204 50 104 330 17 371 0.02%
0.03% 0.01% 0.02% 0.05% 0.01%
TOTAL 641,951 342,979 687,884 605,392 160,143 2,438,349 100.00%

By county

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County John Kerry
Democratic 		George W. Bush
Republican 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # %
Albany 89,323 60.68% 54,872 37.28% 3,004 2.04% 34,451 23.40% 147,199
Allegany 6,566 34.07% 12,310 63.88% 394 2.05% −5,744 −29.81% 19,270
Bronx 283,994 82.80% 56,701 16.53% 2,284 0.67% 227,293 66.27% 342,979
Broome 46,281 50.37% 43,568 47.41% 2,041 2.22% 2,713 2.96% 91,890
Cattaraugus 13,514 39.44% 20,051 58.52% 701 2.04% −6,537 −19.08% 34,266
Cayuga 17,534 48.64% 17,743 49.22% 775 2.15% −209 −0.58% 36,052
Chautauqua 27,257 44.72% 32,434 53.22% 1,253 2.06% −5,177 −8.50% 60,944
Chemung 17,080 43.71% 21,321 54.56% 674 1.72% −4,241 −10.85% 39,075
Chenango 9,277 43.47% 11,582 54.27% 482 2.26% −2,305 −10.80% 21,341
Clinton 17,624 52.24% 15,330 45.44% 782 2.32% 2,294 6.80% 33,736
Columbia 15,929 51.21% 14,457 46.48% 717 2.31% 1,472 4.73% 31,103
Cortland 10,670 46.88% 11,613 51.02% 477 2.09% −943 −4.14% 22,760
Delaware 8,724 41.22% 11,958 56.49% 485 2.29% −3,234 −15.27% 21,167
Dutchess 58,232 47.01% 63,372 51.16% 2,277 1.84% −5,140 −4.15% 123,881
Erie 251,090 56.41% 184,423 41.43% 9,625 2.17% 66,667 14.98% 445,138
Essex 8,768 45.95% 9,869 51.72% 445 2.34% −1,101 −5.77% 19,082
Franklin 9,543 52.10% 8,383 45.77% 390 2.13% 1,160 6.33% 18,316
Fulton 9,202 41.42% 12,570 56.58% 443 1.99% −3,368 −15.16% 22,215
Genesee 10,331 37.46% 16,725 60.64% 524 1.90% −6,394 −23.18% 27,580
Greene 8,933 39.88% 12,996 58.02% 469 2.10% −4,063 −18.14% 22,398
Hamilton 1,145 30.99% 2,475 66.98% 75 2.03% −1,330 −35.99% 3,695
Herkimer 11,675 41.24% 16,024 56.60% 611 2.15% −4,349 −15.36% 28,310
Jefferson 16,860 43.45% 21,231 54.72% 709 1.83% −4,371 −11.27% 38,800
Kings 514,973 74.86% 167,149 24.30% 5,762 0.84% 347,824 50.56% 687,884
Lewis 4,546 39.89% 6,624 58.12% 227 1.99% −2,078 −18.23% 11,397
Livingston 11,504 38.41% 17,729 59.20% 715 2.39% −6,225 −20.79% 29,948
Madison 13,121 43.32% 16,537 54.60% 629 2.08% −3,416 −11.28% 30,287
Monroe 173,497 50.57% 163,545 47.67% 6,022 1.76% 9,952 2.90% 343,064
Montgomery 9,449 44.53% 11,338 53.43% 434 2.04% −1,889 −8.90% 21,221
Nassau 323,070 52.25% 288,355 46.63% 6,918 1.12% 34,715 5.62% 618,343
New York 526,765 82.06% 107,405 16.73% 7,781 1.21% 419,360 65.33% 641,951
Niagara 47,602 49.29% 47,111 48.78% 1,867 1.93% 491 0.51% 96,580
Oneida 40,792 42.77% 52,392 54.93% 2,197 2.30% −11,600 −12.16% 95,381
Onondaga 116,381 54.23% 94,006 43.80% 4,238 1.98% 22,375 10.43% 214,625
Ontario 21,166 42.24% 27,999 55.88% 945 1.89% −6,833 −13.64% 50,110
Orange 63,394 43.82% 79,089 54.67% 2,190 1.51% −15,695 −10.85% 144,673
Orleans 5,959 35.95% 10,317 62.24% 301 1.81% −4,358 −26.29% 16,577
Oswego 24,133 46.76% 26,325 51.01% 1,149 2.23% −2,192 −4.25% 51,607
Otsego 12,723 47.74% 13,342 50.06% 587 2.20% −619 −2.32% 26,652
Putnam 19,575 42.03% 26,356 56.59% 640 1.37% −6,781 −14.56% 46,571
Queens 433,835 71.66% 165,954 27.41% 5,603 0.93% 267,881 44.25% 605,392
Rensselaer 36,075 49.75% 34,734 47.90% 1,705 2.35% 1,341 1.85% 72,514
Richmond 68,448 42.74% 90,325 56.40% 1,370 0.85% −21,877 −13.66% 160,143
Rockland 64,191 48.91% 65,130 49.63% 1,910 1.46% −939 −0.72% 131,231
Saratoga 48,730 45.60% 56,158 52.55% 1,985 1.86% −7,428 −6.95% 106,873
Schenectady 35,971 51.78% 32,066 46.16% 1,432 2.06% 3,905 5.62% 69,469
Schoharie 5,630 38.67% 8,591 59.01% 338 2.33% −2,961 −20.34% 14,559
Schuyler 3,445 40.10% 4,960 57.74% 185 2.16% −1,515 −17.64% 8,590
Seneca 6,979 45.54% 7,981 52.08% 365 2.38% −1,002 −6.54% 15,325
St. Lawrence 22,857 54.73% 18,029 43.17% 875 2.09% 4,828 11.56% 41,761
Steuben 14,523 34.35% 26,980 63.81% 781 1.85% −12,457 −29.46% 42,284
Suffolk 315,909 49.46% 309,949 48.53% 12,854 2.01% 5,960 0.93% 638,712
Sullivan 15,034 48.55% 15,319 49.47% 613 1.98% −285 −0.92% 30,966
Tioga 9,694 40.56% 13,762 57.58% 446 1.87% −4,068 −17.02% 23,902
Tompkins 27,229 64.19% 13,994 32.99% 1,198 2.82% 13,235 31.20% 42,421
Ulster 47,602 54.27% 37,821 43.12% 2,289 2.61% 9,781 11.15% 87,712
Warren 13,405 43.16% 16,969 54.63% 685 2.20% −3,564 −11.47% 31,059
Washington 10,624 42.32% 13,827 55.08% 652 2.59% −3,203 −12.76% 25,103
Wayne 15,709 38.11% 24,709 59.94% 802 1.94% −9,000 −21.83% 41,220
Westchester 229,849 58.08% 159,628 40.33% 6,293 1.59% 70,221 17.75% 395,770
Wyoming 6,134 33.76% 11,745 64.64% 290 1.59% −5,611 −30.88% 18,169
Yates 4,205 39.26% 6,309 58.90% 197 1.83% −2,104 −19.64% 10,711
Totals 4,314,280 58.36% 2,962,567 40.08% 115,107 1.56% 1,351,713 18.28% 7,391,954
 
County flips:

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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[14][15]

By congressional district

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Kerry won 20 of 29 congressional districts. Both candidates won a district held by the other party.[16]

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 49% 49% Tim Bishop
2nd 45% 53% Steve Israel
3rd 52% 47% Peter T. King
4th 44% 55% Carolyn McCarthy
5th 36% 63% Gary Ackerman
6th 15% 84% Gregory W. Meeks
7th 25% 74% Joseph Crowley
8th 27% 72% Jerrold Nadler
9th 44% 56% Anthony D. Weiner
10th 13% 86% Edolphus Towns
11th 13% 86% Major Owens
12th 19% 80% Nydia Velasquez
13th 55% 45% Vito Fossella
14th 25% 75% Carolyn B. Maloney
15th 9% 90% Charlie Rangel
16th 10% 89% Jose Serrano
17th 33% 67% Eliot L. Engel
18th 42% 58% Nita Lowey
19th 54% 45% Sue W. Kelly
20th 54% 46% John E. Sweeney
21st 43% 55% Michael R. McNulty
22nd 45% 54% Maurice Hinchey
23rd 51% 47% John M. McHugh
24th 53% 47% Sherwood Boehlert
25th 48% 50% James T. Walsh
26th 55% 43% Thomas M. Reynolds
27th 45% 53% Jack Quinn
Brian Higgins
28th 36% 63% Louise Slaughter
29th 56% 42% Amo Houghton
Randy Kuhl

Electors

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Main article: List of 2004 United States presidential electors

NY voters cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. New York has 31 electors because it has 29 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 31 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 31 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia meet in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from New York. All were pledged to and voted for Kerry/Edwards.

  1. Joseph Ashton
  2. Bill De Blasio
  3. Molly Clifford
  4. Lorraine Cortes-Vazquez
  5. Inez Dickens
  6. Danny Donahue
  7. Herman D. Farrell
  8. C. Virginia Fields
  9. Emily Giske
  10. Bea Gonzalez
  11. Alan Hevesi
  12. Frank Hoare
  13. Virginia Kee
  14. Peggy Kerry
  15. Denise King
  16. Len Lenihan
  17. Bertha Lewis
  18. Alan Lubin
  19. Thomas J. Manton
  20. Dennis Mehiel
  21. June O'Neill
  22. David Paterson
  23. Jose Rivera
  24. Rich Schaffer
  25. Chung Seto
  26. Sheldon Silver
  27. Eliot Spitzer
  28. Antoine Thompson
  29. Paul Tokasz
  30. Bill Wood
  31. Robert Zimmerman

See also

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References

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  1. ^ "Archived copy". dcpoliticalreport.com. Archived from the original on November 21, 2010. Retrieved January 17, 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  2. ^ "Election 2004 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". Uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved October 8, 2014.
  3. ^ "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President". Campaignmoney.com. Retrieved October 8, 2014.
  4. ^ "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democratic Party, President". Campaignmoney.com. Retrieved October 8, 2014.
  5. ^ "CNN.com Specials". Cnn.com. Retrieved October 8, 2014.
  6. ^ "CNN.com Specials". Cnn.com. Retrieved October 8, 2014.
  7. ^ "CNN.com Election 2004".
  8. ^ "CNN.com Election 2004".
  9. ^ "CNN.com Election 2004".
  10. ^ "CNN.com Election 2004".
  11. ^ "CNN.com Election 2004".
  12. ^ "CNN.com Election 2004".
  13. ^ "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections 2004 - New York". Uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved January 7, 2013.
  14. ^ "2004 Presidential General Election Results - New York". Dave Leip's election atlas.
  15. ^ "2000 Presidential General Election Results - New York". Dave Leip's election atlas.
  16. ^ "Swing State Project". Swingstateproject.com. Retrieved October 8, 2014.
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